1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. SOU @ TCU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Southern Jaguars at TCU Horned Frogs

Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
#309SOUSouthern
@
#40TCUTCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SOUThis seasonTCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 89–60 · win probability TCU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

SOU 0, TCU 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TCUBig
SOU offense vs TCU defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
TCUBig
TCU offense vs SOU defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, TCU 37.5. Allowed: SOU 42.9, TCU 30.4
TCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: SOU 8, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, TCU 70.9%
TCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2
TCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, TCU 19.5%
TCUSmall
Home court
TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
TCUSmall
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 32.0% and 36.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TCU -28.9—
Total—149.5—
Projected score—SOU 60.3 · TCU 89.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTCU -17.1—
1H total69.9—
1H projected scoreSOU 26.4 · TCU 43.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

TCU has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, TCU 5, even 0
SouthernBetterTCU
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
TCUBig
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
TCUBig
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
TCUBig
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
TCUSmall
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
TCUBig
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
SouthernBetterTCU
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
TCUBig
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
TCUBig
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
TCUBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
TCUBig
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
TCUBig
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSOU betterTCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUTCU
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game77.4 #109
1.06 #239Points per possession1.10 #127
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)70.2 #108
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%50.4 #221
34.8 #1293-point %33.2 #220
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate36.8 #233
39.8 #61Free throw rate37.5 #112
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate15.3 #90
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate34.0 #67
13.9 #156Assists per game15.4 #71
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed72.1 #107
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession1.02 #50
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%51.2 #172
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %33.5 #158
18.6 #67Turnovers forced19.5 #33
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate70.9 #112
8.3 #26Steals per game7.7 #61
3.8 #97Blocks per game4.5 #39
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.