1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 6
  3. STBK @ NU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 6

Stony Brook Seawolves at Northwestern Wildcats

Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern
#191STBKStony Brook
@
#59NUNorthwestern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STBKThis seasonNU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 82–63 · win probability NU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

STBK 1, NU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NUBig
STBK offense vs NU defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
STBK has played the 204th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NUSmall
NU offense vs STBK defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
NUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STBK 16.7%, NU 13.1%. Forced: STBK 17.2%, NU 17.5%
NUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: STBK 28.4, NU 33.9. Allowed: STBK 35.4, NU 34.8
NUSmall
Home court
NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, STBK 0-0 away
STBKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STBK 48%, NU 24%. Transfers in: STBK 5, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: STBK plays 67.3 a game (269th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STBK 28.0%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: STBK 67.7%, NU 65.3%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0
Even
Three-pointers
STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 45.8% and 34.0% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NU -18.7—
Total—145.1—
Projected score—STBK 63.2 · NU 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNU -11.0—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreSTBK 28.4 · NU 39.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Northwestern has the better starters

Position by position: Stony Brook 0, Northwestern 3, even 2
Stony BrookBetterNorthwestern
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
NUBig
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
Even
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
NUBig
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
NUBig
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
Stony BrookBetterNorthwestern
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
NUBig
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
NUSmall
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
NUSmall
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
NUBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
STBKSmall
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSTBK betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
Northwestern
Guards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STBKNU
Scoring
70.7 #270Points per game73.2 #220
1.05 #254Points per possession1.12 #100
67.3 #269Pace (possessions)65.5 #328
Shooting
50.2 #227Effective FG%51.7 #159
34.8 #1283-point %33.0 #232
45.8 #503-point attempt rate34.0 #296
28.4 #339Free throw rate33.9 #213
Possessions
16.7 #181Turnover rate13.1 #6
28.0 #267Offensive rebound rate28.1 #260
12.9 #216Assists per game17.2 #18
Defense
72.5 #118Points allowed72.0 #106
1.08 #168Points allowed per possession1.09 #210
50.7 #138Opponent effective FG%51.0 #157
35.7 #291Opponent 3-point %33.4 #145
17.2 #135Turnovers forced17.5 #120
67.7 #275Defensive rebound rate65.3 #332
6.3 #201Steals per game5.8 #256
3.6 #122Blocks per game3.6 #131
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue68–81
  • Wvs Indiana74–61
  • Wvs Penn State76–66
  • L@ Minnesota66–67
  • Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.