St. Thomas Tommies at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ETThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Thomas and Minnesota
STMN	This season	MINN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MINN 78–62 · win probability MINN 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

STMN 3, MINN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINNBig

STMN offense vs MINN defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

STMNBig

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 46.3% and 47.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points

MINNSmall

MINN offense vs STMN defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, MINN 16.8%

STMNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9

MINNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, MINN 35.8. Allowed: STMN 30.7, MINN 26.9

MINNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: STMN 3, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MINNSmall

Home court

MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, MINN 70.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MINN -16.0	—
Total	—	140.0	—
Projected score	—	STMN 62 · MINN 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -9.4	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	STMN 28.1 · MINN 37.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	—
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	8-9	—

Venue/role: STMN away; MINN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs GB	W80–61WU
Nov 14	@ ARMY	W83–76LO
Nov 16	@ LIU	No recent meeting

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ CIN	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs SOU	No recent meeting
Nov 16	vs WIU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 0, Minnesota 3, even 2

St ThomasBetterMinnesota

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

Even

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

MINNSmall

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

MINNBig

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

MINNBig

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

St ThomasBetterMinnesota

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

MINNBig

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

MINNSmall

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

MINNBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

STMNSmall

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

MINN69.4 #294

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

MINN1.10 #147

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

MINN63.6 #362

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

MINN53.9 #69

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

MINN34.1 #164

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

MINN47.1 #31

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

MINN35.8 #159

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

MINN16.6 #170

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

MINN26.8 #304

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

MINN17.0 #25

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

MINN68.5 #38

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

MINN1.07 #139

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

MINN51.9 #207

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

MINN34.6 #229

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

MINN16.8 #168

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

MINN70.5 #137

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

MINN6.3 #197

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

MINN2.7 #284

STMN		MINN
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	69.4 #294
1.16 #45	Points per possession	1.10 #147
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	63.6 #362
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	53.9 #69
36.0 #57	3-point %	34.1 #164
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #31
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	35.8 #159
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	16.6 #170
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #304
16.4 #37	Assists per game	17.0 #25
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	68.5 #38
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #139
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #207
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #229
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	16.8 #168
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #137
7.5 #87	Steals per game	6.3 #197
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	2.7 #284

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

St. Thomas Tommies at Minnesota Golden Gophers

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Minnesota

Minnesota has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Thomas

Minnesota