1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 8
  3. SOU @ DRKE
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 8

Southern Jaguars at Drake Bulldogs

Knapp Center · at Drake
#309SOUSouthern
@
#144DRKEDrake
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SOUThis seasonDRKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 81–67 · win probability DRKE 89%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

SOU 2, DRKE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DRKEBig
SOU offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings
DRKEBig
DRKE offense vs SOU defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, DRKE the 147th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), DRKE 68.4 (209th). Faster games mean more points
DRKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, DRKE 51%. Transfers in: SOU 8, DRKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SOUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, DRKE 15.0%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, DRKE 14.6%
DRKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6
SOUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, DRKE 26.6%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, DRKE 70.1%
DRKESmall
Home court
DRKE at home. This season: DRKE 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, DRKE 33.5. Allowed: SOU 42.9, DRKE 32.0
Even
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 32.0% and 45.7% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DRKE -14.0—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—SOU 67.2 · DRKE 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDRKE -8.2—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreSOU 30.6 · DRKE 38.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Drake has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 2, Drake 3, even 0
SouthernBetterDrake
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
SOUSmall
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
DRKESmall
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
DRKEBig
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
SOUSmall
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
DRKEBig
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
SouthernBetterDrake
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
DRKEBig
DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
DRKEBig
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
DRKESmall
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
DRKEBig
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSOU betterDRKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUDRKE
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game73.9 #200
1.06 #239Points per possession1.08 #182
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)68.4 #209
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%51.4 #179
34.8 #1293-point %34.0 #172
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate45.7 #53
39.8 #61Free throw rate33.5 #223
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate15.0 #64
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate26.6 #310
13.9 #156Assists per game13.1 #202
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed76.3 #225
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession1.12 #261
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%52.6 #246
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %36.4 #323
18.6 #67Turnovers forced14.6 #315
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate70.1 #155
8.3 #26Steals per game5.2 #319
3.8 #97Blocks per game2.9 #241
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.