PeoplesBank Arena · at UConn
#348GWEBGardner-Webb
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineCONN -38.5no move
Total147.5no move
Season records: Gardner-Webb and UConn
GWEBThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 94–51 · win probability CONN 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
CONN -38.5
no move since the open
Total
147.5
model 144.7 · Under by 3
Model edge
CONN by 5
model vs market
Public on the spread
99% GWEB
94% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

GWEB 1, CONN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CONNBig
CONN offense vs GWEB defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
GWEB offense vs CONN defense
Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
CONNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
CONNBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, CONN 71.2%
CONNBig
Three-pointers
GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 39.8% and 40.9% of their shots
CONNBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, CONN 17.8%
Context
Schedule so far
GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
GWEBSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, CONN 29.9. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, CONN 40.7
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
GWEB +8000 · CONN -100000
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened CONN -38.5 · now CONN -39 · moved 0.5 toward CONNmodel CONN -43.5
Opened 147.5 · now 147.5 · moved 0.5 downmodel 144.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
GWEB +38.5SpreadCONN -38.5
Bets
Money
Over 147.5TotalUnder 147.5
Bets
Money

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
GWEBCONNOverUnderGWEBCONN
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-39-110+39-110147-110147-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-38.5-113+38.5-113147.5-113147.5-113——
BovadaBovada-39-110+39-110147-110147-110——
DraftKingsDK-38.5-110+38.5-110147.5-110147.5-110——
FanDuelFD-37.5-102+37.5-120147.5-110147.5-110+8000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-39-106+39-106147-108147-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadCONN -38.5CONN -43.7CONN +5.2
Total147.5144.7Under 2.8
Projected score—GWEB 50.5 · CONN 94.2

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -25.9—
1H total67.7—
1H projected scoreGWEB 20.9 · CONN 46.8—

UConn has the better starters

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 0, UConn 4, even 1
Gardner-WebbBetterUConn
G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62
CONNSmall
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
CONNBig
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32
CONNBig
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14
CONNBig
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
Gardner-WebbBetterUConn
GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4
CONNBig
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2
CONNBig
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
CONNBig
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
CONNBig
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGWEB betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gardner-Webb
Guards
J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew
Forwards
M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew
Centers
S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GWEBCONN
Scoring
66.2 #343Points per game76.6 #129
0.94 #360Points per possession1.16 #52
70.8 #84Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
47.8 #317Effective FG%54.3 #59
31.0 #3203-point %34.4 #150
39.8 #1743-point attempt rate40.9 #149
30.3 #302Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
19.8 #347Turnover rate16.4 #163
23.2 #350Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
9.7 #362Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
86.7 #362Points allowed65.2 #6
1.22 #361Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
57.0 #356Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
36.0 #300Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
15.3 #265Turnovers forced17.8 #107
63.4 #355Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
6.1 #224Steals per game6.8 #143
2.4 #309Blocks per game5.0 #15

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point59–81
  • Wvs SC Upstate65–64
  • L@ SC Upstate61–71
  • Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
  • L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.