Moody Center · at Texas
Line
TEX -39.5moved 1 toward CHST
Total149.5no move
| This season | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects TEX 96–53 · win probability TEX 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
TEX -39.5
moved 1 toward CHST
Total
149.5
model 149.1
Model edge
TEX by 4
model vs market
Public on the spread
87% CHST
80% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges
CHST 1, TEX 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CHST offense vs TEX defense
Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
TEX offense vs CHST defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, TEX 73.1%
Shooting
Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
Context
Schedule so far
CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, TEX 13.0%
Free throws
Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, TEX 44.2. Allowed: CHST 38.0, TEX 39.6
Three-pointers
CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 30.9% and 35.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
Home court
TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: CHST 6, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog | 4513 | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| Games with a total of 145 to 149.5 | 3547 | 74% | 49% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenTEX -40.5
1 → CHST
NowTEX -39.5
1 pt toward CHST
Total
Open149.5
no move
Now149.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened TEX -40.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -43.5
model TEX -43.5
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 149.5TotalUnder 149.5
Bets
Money
Books
5 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHST | TEX | Over | Under | CHST | TEX | |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -40.5-110 | +40.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -39.5-114 | +39.5-112 | 149.5-112 | 149.5-114 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -40.5-110 | +40.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | -39.5-105 | +39.5-115 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | — | — |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -40.5-106 | +40.5-106 | 149.5-108 | 149.5-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TEX -39.5 | TEX -43.6 | TEX +4.1 |
| Total | 149.5 | 149.1 | Under 0.4 |
| Projected score | — | CHST 52.7 · TEX 96.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TEX -25.8 | — |
| 1H total | 69.7 | — |
| 1H projected score | CHST 21.9 · TEX 47.8 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | |
| 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CHST 0–1 TEXTEX leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CHST 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024-25 | CHST 58 @ TEX 105 | TEX -30.5 | TEX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Chicago St
31 games played
Straight up
6-25
19% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 62-92 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 6 | @ | L 86-108 | +30.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 11 | @ | L 66-98 | +26.5 | L −5.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 15 | vs | L 63-67 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | @ | L 54-66 | +27.5 | W +15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 20 | @ | L 54-93 | +31.5 | L −7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | @ | L 77-90 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 28 | @ | L 64-87 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 6 | @ | L 53-95 | +20.5 | L −21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 14 | @ | W 84-75 | +15.5 | W +24.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 16 | @ | L 55-76 | +21.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 58-78 | +38.5 | W +18.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | vs | L 72-79 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 4 | vs | L 55-74 | +7.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 8 | @ | L 63-70 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 82-85 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 57-72 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 19 | vs | L 56-62 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 129.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 23 | @ | L 60-81 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 25 | @ | L 59-61 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 131.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 31 | vs | W 78-74 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 129.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 5 | @ | L 67-78 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 7 | @ | W 63-57 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 127.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 9 | vs | W 80-75 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 12 | vs | W 68-55 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 131.5 | U 123 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 63-81 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 19 | vs | L 59-60 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 131.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 70-51 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 138.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 26 | @ | L 56-73 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 61-80 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 134.5 | O 141 |
| Mar 4 | @ | L 75-79 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 137.5 | O 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
DEP
L 62-92
−5.5
6
@
SLU
L 86-108
+8.5
11
@
BTLR
L 66-98
−5.5
15
vs
UIC
L 63-67
+5.5
18
@
MINN
L 54-66
+15.5
20
@
IOWA
L 54-93
−7.5
25
@
PFW
L 77-90
−0.5
28
@
YSU
L 64-87
−8.5
6
@
ILST
L 53-95
−21.5
14
@
LUC
W 84-75
+24.5
16
@
BGSU
L 55-76
+0.5
20
@
IU
L 58-78
+18.5
2
vs
WAG
L 72-79
−5.5
4
vs
LIU
L 55-74
−11.5
8
@
FDU
L 63-70
−2.5
10
@
STO
L 82-85
+1.5
17
vs
LEM
L 57-72
−8.5
19
vs
NHVN
L 56-62
−7.5
23
@
SFPA
L 60-81
−17.5
25
@
MERC
L 59-61
+7.5
31
vs
MERC
W 78-74
+6.5
5
@
CCSU
L 67-78
−2.5
7
@
NHVN
W 63-57
+11.5
9
vs
SFPA
W 80-75
+1.5
12
vs
STO
W 68-55
+15.5
14
@
LEM
L 63-81
−11.5
19
vs
FDU
L 59-60
+0.5
21
vs
CCSU
W 70-51
+22.5
26
@
LIU
L 56-73
−5.5
28
@
WAG
L 61-80
−14.5
4
@
LIU
L 75-79
+6.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
DEP
L 62-92
+10.5
6
@
SLU
L 86-108
+38.5
11
@
BTLR
L 66-98
+5.5
15
vs
UIC
L 63-67
−26.5
18
@
MINN
L 54-66
−24.5
20
@
IOWA
L 54-93
+4.5
25
@
PFW
L 77-90
+17.5
28
@
YSU
L 64-87
+4.5
6
@
ILST
L 53-95
+3.5
14
@
LUC
W 84-75
+18.5
16
@
BGSU
L 55-76
−17.5
20
@
IU
L 58-78
−16.5
2
vs
WAG
L 72-79
+4.5
4
vs
LIU
L 55-74
−22.5
8
@
FDU
L 63-70
−10.5
10
@
STO
L 82-85
+31.5
17
vs
LEM
L 57-72
−17.5
19
vs
NHVN
L 56-62
−11.5
23
@
SFPA
L 60-81
−2.5
25
@
MERC
L 59-61
−11.5
31
vs
MERC
W 78-74
+22.5
5
@
CCSU
L 67-78
+6.5
7
@
NHVN
W 63-57
−7.5
9
vs
SFPA
W 80-75
+10.5
12
vs
STO
W 68-55
−8.5
14
@
LEM
L 63-81
−0.5
19
vs
FDU
L 59-60
−12.5
21
vs
CCSU
W 70-51
−17.5
26
@
LIU
L 56-73
−12.5
28
@
WAG
L 61-80
+6.5
4
@
LIU
L 75-79
+16.5
over 15under 16avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas
35 games played
Straight up
20-15
57% wins
Against the spread
20-15
57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-15
57% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs | L 98-101 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 6 | @ | L 71-85 | +12.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ | W 92-88 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 14 | vs | W 80-64 | +3.5 | W +19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 70-74 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 80-85 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 87-67 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 82-88 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ | W 79-69 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 3 | vs | W 84-75 | -13.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 7 | vs | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 14 | @ | W 85-68 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 17 | vs | W 88-85 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 162.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 25 | vs | L 71-84 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 28 | @ | W 76-70 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 4 | @ | L 85-105 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 163.5 | O 190 |
| Mar 7 | vs | L 85-88 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 11 | vs | L 66-76 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | U 142 |
| Mar 17 | vs | W 68-66 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 19 | vs | W 79-71 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 21 | vs | W 74-68 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Mar 26 | vs | L 77-79 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
DUKE
L 60-75
−4.5
8
vs
LAF
W 97-60
+11.5
12
vs
FDU
W 93-58
+3.5
15
vs
KC
W 71-55
−15.5
18
vs
RID
W 99-65
+3.5
24
vs
ASU
L 86-87
−7.5
26
vs
NCSU
W 102-97
+6.5
3
vs
UVA
L 69-88
−22.5
8
vs
SOU
W 95-69
+3.5
12
@
CONN
L 63-71
+3.5
16
vs
LEM
W 95-53
+12.5
22
vs
UMES
W 94-71
−10.5
3
vs
MSST
L 98-101
−12.5
6
@
TENN
L 71-85
−1.5
10
@
ALA
W 92-88
+15.5
14
vs
VAN
W 80-64
+19.5
17
vs
TA&M
L 70-74
−8.5
21
@
UK
L 80-85
+2.5
24
vs
UGA
W 87-67
+16.5
28
@
AUB
L 82-88
+0.5
31
@
OU
W 79-69
+8.5
3
vs
SC
W 84-75
−4.5
7
vs
MISS
W 79-68
+1.5
14
@
MIZ
W 85-68
+19.5
17
vs
LSU
W 88-85
−7.5
21
@
UGA
L 80-91
−8.5
25
vs
FLA
L 71-84
−6.5
28
@
TA&M
W 76-70
+8.5
4
@
ARK
L 85-105
−13.5
7
vs
OU
L 85-88
−9.5
11
vs
MISS
L 66-76
−15.5
17
vs
NCSU
W 68-66
+3.5
19
vs
BYU
W 79-71
+10.5
21
vs
GONZ
W 74-68
+11.5
26
vs
PUR
L 77-79
+6.5
covered 20didn’t cover 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vs
DUKE
L 60-75
−18.5
8
vs
LAF
W 97-60
+3.5
12
vs
FDU
W 93-58
−7.5
15
vs
KC
W 71-55
−33.5
18
vs
RID
W 99-65
+20.5
24
vs
ASU
L 86-87
+19.5
26
vs
NCSU
W 102-97
+37.5
3
vs
UVA
L 69-88
+2.5
8
vs
SOU
W 95-69
+5.5
12
@
CONN
L 63-71
−11.5
16
vs
LEM
W 95-53
−4.5
22
vs
UMES
W 94-71
+26.5
3
vs
MSST
L 98-101
+41.5
6
@
TENN
L 71-85
+2.5
10
@
ALA
W 92-88
+2.5
14
vs
VAN
W 80-64
−19.5
17
vs
TA&M
L 70-74
−22.5
21
@
UK
L 80-85
+12.5
24
vs
UGA
W 87-67
−14.5
28
@
AUB
L 82-88
+15.5
31
@
OU
W 79-69
−7.5
3
vs
SC
W 84-75
+9.5
7
vs
MISS
W 79-68
+1.5
14
@
MIZ
W 85-68
+2.5
17
vs
LSU
W 88-85
+22.5
21
@
UGA
L 80-91
+8.5
25
vs
FLA
L 71-84
−2.5
28
@
TA&M
W 76-70
−13.5
4
@
ARK
L 85-105
+26.5
7
vs
OU
L 85-88
+18.5
11
vs
MISS
L 66-76
−5.5
17
vs
NCSU
W 68-66
−23.5
19
vs
BYU
W 79-71
−6.5
21
vs
GONZ
W 74-68
−4.5
26
vs
PUR
L 77-79
+9.5
over 20under 15avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas has the better starters
Position by position: Chicago St 0, Texas 5, even 0
Chicago StBetterTexas
G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 3
→TEXBig
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 3
→TEXBig
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 85
G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 2
→TEXBig
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast
Score 86
F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 14
→TEXBig
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 96
F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 1
→TEXBig
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 95
Chicago StBetterTexas
CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2
→TEXBig
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0
→TEXBig
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players
→TEXBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players
→TEXBig
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 2 players
→TEXBig
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCHST betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew
Forwards
B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew
Centers
B. KalonjiNew
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 65.2 #348 | Points per game | 81.7 #34 |
| 0.99 #337 | Points per possession | 1.19 #22 |
| 66.0 #314 | Pace (possessions) | 68.7 #199 |
| Shooting | ||
| 45.3 #358 | Effective FG% | 54.1 #65 |
| 32.1 #275 | 3-point % | 35.1 #107 |
| 30.9 #341 | 3-point attempt rate | 35.8 #254 |
| 30.0 #311 | Free throw rate | 44.2 #7 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.7 #114 | Turnover rate | 15.0 #68 |
| 28.3 #255 | Offensive rebound rate | 35.4 #35 |
| 11.7 #305 | Assists per game | 12.1 #278 |
| Defense | ||
| 76.5 #231 | Points allowed | 76.1 #220 |
| 1.16 #332 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #235 |
| 56.7 #354 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.8 #144 |
| 35.6 #290 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.7 #230 |
| 20.1 #21 | Turnovers forced | 13.0 #356 |
| 65.0 #339 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.1 #35 |
| 8.2 #33 | Steals per game | 5.5 #298 |
| 1.3 #365 | Blocks per game | 2.9 #239 |
Chicago St
6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Long Island75–79
- L@ Wagner61–80
- L@ Long Island56–73
- Wvs C Connecticut70–51
- Lvs FDU59–60
A week or more of rest.
Texas
20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Purdue77–79
- Wvs Gonzaga74–68
- Wvs BYU79–71
- Wvs NC State68–66
- Lvs Ole Miss66–76
A week or more of rest.