Moody Center · at Texas
#362CHSTChicago St
@
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineTEX -39.5moved 1 toward CHST
Total149.5no move
Season records: Chicago St and Texas
CHSTThis seasonTEX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 96–53 · win probability TEX 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
TEX -39.5
moved 1 toward CHST
Total
149.5
model 149.1
Model edge
TEX by 4
model vs market
Public on the spread
87% CHST
80% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

CHST 1, TEX 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TEXBig
CHST offense vs TEX defense
Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
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TEX offense vs CHST defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, TEX 73.1%
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Shooting
Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
Context
Schedule so far
CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
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Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, TEX 13.0%
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Free throws
Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, TEX 44.2. Allowed: CHST 38.0, TEX 39.6
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Three-pointers
CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 30.9% and 35.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
TEXSmall
Home court
TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: CHST 6, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward CHST
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened TEX -40.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -43.5
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 149
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
CHST +39.5SpreadTEX -39.5
Bets
Money
Over 149.5TotalUnder 149.5
Bets
Money

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
CHSTTEXOverUnderCHSTTEX
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-40.5-110+40.5-110149.5-110149.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-39.5-114+39.5-112149.5-112149.5-114——
BovadaBovada-40.5-110+40.5-110149.5-110149.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-39.5-105+39.5-115149.5-110149.5-110——
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-40.5-106+40.5-106149.5-108149.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadTEX -39.5TEX -43.6TEX +4.1
Total149.5149.1Under 0.4
Projected score—CHST 52.7 · TEX 96.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -25.8—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreCHST 21.9 · TEX 47.8—

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Chicago St 0, Texas 5, even 0
Chicago StBetterTexas
G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3
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G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
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G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2
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G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14
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F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
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C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
Chicago StBetterTexas
CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2
TEXBig
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0
TEXBig
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players
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Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players
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Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 2 players
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Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCHST betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chicago St
Guards
M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew
Forwards
B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew
Centers
B. KalonjiNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSTTEX
Scoring
65.2 #348Points per game81.7 #34
0.99 #337Points per possession1.19 #22
66.0 #314Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
45.3 #358Effective FG%54.1 #65
32.1 #2753-point %35.1 #107
30.9 #3413-point attempt rate35.8 #254
30.0 #311Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
15.7 #114Turnover rate15.0 #68
28.3 #255Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
11.7 #305Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
76.5 #231Points allowed76.1 #220
1.16 #332Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
56.7 #354Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
35.6 #290Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
20.1 #21Turnovers forced13.0 #356
65.0 #339Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
8.2 #33Steals per game5.5 #298
1.3 #365Blocks per game2.9 #239

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island75–79
  • L@ Wagner61–80
  • L@ Long Island56–73
  • Wvs C Connecticut70–51
  • Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.