Florida A&M Rattlers vs Florida State Seminoles: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:30 PM ETBenchmark International Arena · Neutral site

LineFSU -25.5moved 1 toward FSU

Total156.5up 1 from 155.5

Season records: Florida A&M and Florida St
FAMU	This season	FSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 85–65 · win probability FSU 96%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

FSU -25.5

moved 1 toward FSU

Total

156.5

model 149.6 · Under by 7

Model edge

FAMU by 5

model vs market

Public on the spread

92% FAMU

86% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

FAMU 2, FSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

FAMU has played the 323rd-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

FSUBig

FSU offense vs FAMU defense

Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 303rd, on the model’s ratings

FSUBig

FAMU offense vs FSU defense

Offense 326th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings

FSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FAMU 21.5%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: FAMU 19.1%, FSU 19.0%

FAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FAMU 43%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: FAMU 3, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

FAMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FAMU 30.9%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: FAMU 69.1%, FSU 65.9%

FSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: FAMU 37.4, FSU 34.7. Allowed: FAMU 39.6, FSU 32.7

FSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FAMU 49.2 and allows 51.2; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: FAMU plays 70.6 a game (92nd fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

FAMU hits 32.6% and allows 34.9%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.7% and 50.6% of their shots

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Neutral-site favorites of 20 or more	36	100%	42%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5	1555	74%	51%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenFSU -24.5

1 → FSU

NowFSU -25.5

1 pt toward FSU

Total

Open155.5

▲ 1

Now156.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

FAMU +2750 · FSU -9500

Line movement

Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened FSU -24.5 · now FSU -26 · moved 1.5 toward FSUmodel FSU -20.5

model FSU -20.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

FAMU +25.5Spread

FSU -25.5

Bets

92%8%

Money

86%14%

FAMUWinner

FSU

Bets

97%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	FAMU	FSU	Over	Under	FAMU	FSU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-26-115	+26-105	159-110	159-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-25.5-113	+25.5-109	155.5-114	155.5-109	—	—
BovadaBovada	-26-115	+26-105	156-110	156-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-25.5-108	+25.5-112	157.5-105	157.5-115	+2500	-9000
FanDuelFD	-24.5-110	+24.5-110	154.5-115	154.5-105	+3000	-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-26-111	+26-101	159-108	159-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	FSU -25.5	FSU -20.3	FAMU +5.2
Total	156.5	149.6	Under 6.9
Projected score	—	FAMU 64.6 · FSU 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FSU -11.9	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	FAMU 29 · FSU 41	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FAMU WWWWL	16-13	55%	1-1	12-8
FSU WLWWW	20-13	61%	2-3	10-7

Venue/role: FAMU neutral site, as underdog; FSU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAMU OUOUO	11-18	38%	13-16
FSU UOOOO	17-16	52%	18-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
FSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ UAB	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs KC	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ UTEP	L53–67LU

Florida St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs TROY	L72–79LO
Nov 10	vs FLA	L76–78WU
Nov 13	vs AMCC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida A&M

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L L L W W W L W L W W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USF	L 67-102	+25.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsKENN	L 72-92	+11.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 11	@UCF	L 60-97	+23.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 17	@UGA	L 57-87	+40.5	W +10.5	170.5	U 144
Dec 2	@JAX	L 82-85	+10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 17	vsJAX	W 72-65	+3.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 19	@TAR	L 54-78	+14.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 21	@TCU	L 56-80	+29.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 28	@GT	L 65-89	+19.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 3	@BCU	L 83-87	+7.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsSOU	W 67-59	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsGRAM	W 91-84	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 175
Jan 17	@UAPB	W 71-67	+2.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 138
Jan 19	@MVSU	W 62-48	-11.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 24	vsALCN	W 66-58	-8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	vsJKST	L 65-66	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	@AAMU	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	@ALST	L 66-79	+3.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	vsTXSO	L 57-62	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	vsPV	W 100-96	-3.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 196
Feb 14	@JKST	L 60-80	-2.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	@ALCN	W 86-78	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 19	vsAAMU	L 61-63	-1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	vsALST	W 76-63	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 26	@SOU	W 82-71	+8.5	W +19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	@GRAM	W 66-59	+4.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 5	vsBCU	W 81-77	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsJKST	W 70-60	-6.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSOU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USF

L 67-102

−9.5

KENN

L 72-92

−8.5

UCF

L 60-97

−13.5

UGA

L 57-87

+10.5

JAX

L 82-85

+7.5

JAX

W 72-65

+10.5

TAR

L 54-78

−9.5

TCU

L 56-80

+5.5

L 65-89

−4.5

BCU

L 83-87

+3.5

SOU

W 67-59

+12.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+8.5

UAPB

W 71-67

+6.5

MVSU

W 62-48

+2.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−0.5

JKST

L 65-66

−8.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−3.5

ALST

L 66-79

−9.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−6.5

W 100-96

+0.5

JKST

L 60-80

−22.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+5.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−3.5

ALST

W 76-63

+14.5

SOU

W 82-71

+19.5

GRAM

W 66-59

+11.5

BCU

W 81-77

+6.5

JKST

W 70-60

+3.5

SOU

L 70-73

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USF

L 67-102

+15.5

KENN

L 72-92

−2.5

UCF

L 60-97

−12.5

UGA

L 57-87

−26.5

JAX

L 82-85

+28.5

JAX

W 72-65

−2.5

TAR

L 54-78

−13.5

TCU

L 56-80

−6.5

L 65-89

+7.5

BCU

L 83-87

+24.5

SOU

W 67-59

−27.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+33.5

UAPB

W 71-67

−11.5

MVSU

W 62-48

−29.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−17.5

JKST

L 65-66

−19.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 66-79

+5.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−27.5

W 100-96

+46.5

JKST

L 60-80

−4.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+26.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−15.5

ALST

W 76-63

−5.5

SOU

W 82-71

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-59

−15.5

BCU

W 81-77

+12.5

JKST

W 70-60

−11.5

SOU

L 70-73

+1.5

over 11under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida St

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W W L W W W L L L L L W W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W W W L W W L L L L L W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

O U U U U U U O O O O U U U O O O U U U U O O U O O U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsALCN	W 108-76	-27.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 7	vsALST	W 101-64	-24.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@FLA	L 76-78	+17.5	W +15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsUTM	W 87-73	-19.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 160
Nov 21	vsGASO	W 98-72	-18.5	W +7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 25	vsCSUB	W 89-59	-26.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsTA&M	L 59-95	-1.5	L −37.5	174.5	U 154
Dec 2	vsUGA	L 73-107	-1.5	L −35.5	176.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsHOU	L 67-82	+12.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 13	vsMASS	L 95-103	-12.5	L −20.5	165.5	O 198
Dec 16	@DAY	L 69-97	+6.5	L −21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsMVSU	W 96-49	-40.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	vsJAX	W 87-63	-23.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 150
Dec 30	@UNC	L 66-79	+12.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsDUKE	L 87-91	+16.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 178
Jan 10	vsNCSU	L 69-113	+4.5	L −39.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 13	@SYR	L 86-94	+4.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 137
Jan 20	@MIA	W 65-63	+10.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 128
Jan 24	@SMU	L 80-83	+11.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 163
Jan 28	vsCAL	W 63-61	-3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 124
Jan 31	vsSTAN	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 168
Feb 7	@ND	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	vsUVA	L 58-61	+8.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 119
Feb 14	@VT	W 92-69	+4.5	W +27.5	156.5	O 161
Feb 17	vsBC	W 80-72	-11.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 152
Feb 21	@CLEM	W 70-65	+8.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 24	vsMIA	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@GT	W 80-71	-5.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	@PITT	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	vsSMU	W 91-78	-1.5	W +11.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsCAL	W 95-89	-1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsDUKE	L 79-80	+16.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+4.5

ALST

W 101-64

+12.5

FLA

L 76-78

+15.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

+7.5

CSUB

W 89-59

+3.5

TA&M

L 59-95

−37.5

UGA

L 73-107

−35.5

HOU

L 67-82

−2.5

MASS

L 95-103

−20.5

DAY

L 69-97

−21.5

MVSU

W 96-49

+6.5

JAX

W 87-63

+0.5

UNC

L 66-79

−0.5

DUKE

L 87-91

+12.5

NCSU

L 69-113

−39.5

SYR

L 86-94

−3.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+0.5

MIA

W 65-63

+12.5

SMU

L 80-83

+8.5

CAL

W 63-61

−1.5

STAN

W 88-80

+4.5

W 82-79

+4.5

UVA

L 58-61

+5.5

W 92-69

+27.5

W 80-72

−3.5

CLEM

W 70-65

+13.5

MIA

L 73-83

−7.5

W 80-71

+3.5

PITT

W 75-74

−0.5

SMU

W 91-78

+11.5

CAL

W 95-89

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-80

+15.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+27.5

ALST

W 101-64

−1.5

FLA

L 76-78

−26.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

GASO

W 98-72

−5.5

CSUB

W 89-59

−11.5

TA&M

L 59-95

−20.5

UGA

L 73-107

+3.5

HOU

L 67-82

+0.5

MASS

L 95-103

+32.5

DAY

L 69-97

+3.5

MVSU

W 96-49

−19.5

JAX

W 87-63

−9.5

UNC

L 66-79

−21.5

DUKE

L 87-91

+14.5

NCSU

L 69-113

+21.5

SYR

L 86-94

+19.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−31.5

MIA

W 65-63

−35.5

SMU

L 80-83

−0.5

CAL

W 63-61

−33.5

STAN

W 88-80

+15.5

W 82-79

+6.5

UVA

L 58-61

−36.5

W 92-69

+4.5

W 80-72

+3.5

CLEM

W 70-65

−10.5

MIA

L 73-83

+3.5

W 80-71

−7.5

PITT

W 75-74

+4.5

SMU

W 91-78

+10.5

CAL

W 95-89

+29.5

DUKE

L 79-80

+8.5

over 17under 16avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: Florida A&M 0, Florida St 3, even 2

Florida A&MBetterFlorida St

G J. Kempson TR10.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 33

FSUBig

G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90

G J. Sanders12 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 42

FSUSmall

G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73

G A. Baker9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

FSUBig

F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82

G R. Martino6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

Even

F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

F D. Williford TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68

Florida A&MBetterFlorida St

FAMU offense326th of 366 · -10.6

FSUBig

FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7

FAMU defense303rd of 366 · -7.8

FSUBig

FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

FSUBig

Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

FSUSmall

Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestFAMU betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Florida A&M

Guards

J. Kempson32 min · TRJ. Sanders32 minA. Baker27 minR. Martino22 minC. DavisNewA. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Williford6 min · TRT. Onuoha5 minM. StijovicNewJ. LomickaNewB. NdourNew

Centers

A. Mbaye1 min · TRJ. MokwezaNew

Florida St

Guards

K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew

Forwards

S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew

Centers

M. PonderNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FAMU70.0 #285

FSU80.4 #58

Points per possession

FAMU0.99 #334

FSU1.12 #101

Pace (possessions)

FAMU70.6 #92

FSU71.8 #41

Shooting

Effective FG%

FAMU49.2 #283

FSU52.3 #132

3-point %

FAMU32.6 #249

FSU33.1 #226

3-point attempt rate

FAMU37.7 #219

FSU50.6 #13

Free throw rate

FAMU37.4 #116

FSU34.7 #191

Possessions

Turnover rate

FAMU21.5 #359

FSU15.2 #80

Offensive rebound rate

FAMU30.9 #168

FSU30.8 #170

Assists per game

FAMU12.7 #236

FSU14.3 #124

Defense

Points allowed

FAMU75.1 #192

FSU77.9 #264

Points allowed per possession

FAMU1.06 #114

FSU1.08 #178

Opponent effective FG%

FAMU51.2 #171

FSU52.2 #226

Opponent 3-point %

FAMU34.9 #243

FSU34.6 #228

Turnovers forced

FAMU19.1 #43

FSU19.0 #51

Defensive rebound rate

FAMU69.1 #198

FSU65.9 #319

Steals per game

FAMU8.1 #35

FSU7.9 #44

Blocks per game

FAMU3.0 #220

FSU3.9 #84

FAMU		FSU
Scoring
70.0 #285	Points per game	80.4 #58
0.99 #334	Points per possession	1.12 #101
70.6 #92	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #41
Shooting
49.2 #283	Effective FG%	52.3 #132
32.6 #249	3-point %	33.1 #226
37.7 #219	3-point attempt rate	50.6 #13
37.4 #116	Free throw rate	34.7 #191
Possessions
21.5 #359	Turnover rate	15.2 #80
30.9 #168	Offensive rebound rate	30.8 #170
12.7 #236	Assists per game	14.3 #124
Defense
75.1 #192	Points allowed	77.9 #264
1.06 #114	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #178
51.2 #171	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #226
34.9 #243	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #228
19.1 #43	Turnovers forced	19.0 #51
69.1 #198	Defensive rebound rate	65.9 #319
8.1 #35	Steals per game	7.9 #44
3.0 #220	Blocks per game	3.9 #84

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida A&M

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern70–73
Wvs Jackson St70–60
Wvs Bethune81–77
W@ Grambling66–59
W@ Southern82–71

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke79–80
Wvs California95–89
Wvs SMU91–78
W@ Pitt75–74
W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.