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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Washington St vs Duke

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#139WSUWashington St
vs
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WSUThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 90–60 · win probability DUKE 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

WSU 0, DUKE 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WSU 18.5%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: WSU 14.5%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WSU 30.2, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: WSU 33.0, DUKE 22.8
DUKEBig
DUKE offense vs WSU defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 166th, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WSU 29.5%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: WSU 71.8%, DUKE 74.8%
DUKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WSU 54.7 and allows 52.6; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
DUKEBig
WSU offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
DUKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WSU 1%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: WSU 8, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
WSU has played the 100th-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DUKESmall
Three-pointers
WSU hits 36.5% and allows 35.4%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 44.8% and 43.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: WSU plays 68.9 a game (183rd fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDUKE -29.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model149.7
Model edge—
Projected score
WSU 60 · DUKE 89.7
Win probability
DUKE 100%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -17.6
Total
70.0
Projected score
WSU 26.2 · DUKE 43.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Duke has the better starters

Position by position: Washington St 0, Duke 3, even 2
Washington StBetterDuke
G S. Akins TR5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 57
DUKEBig
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
F F. Roxburgh TR10.9 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
DUKEBig
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
F R. Harrison TR14.2 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
DUKESmall
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F L. Dembele TR5.2 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
F T. Kropp TR3.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 48
Even
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
Washington StBetterDuke
WSU offense131st of 366 · -3.5
DUKEBig
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
WSU defense166th of 366 · -3.7
DUKEBig
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-0.2 · 1 player
DUKEBig
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.6 · 4 players
DUKESmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestWSU betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Washington St
Guards
S. Akins15 min · TRJ. Phillips11 min · TRJ. Harrell9 min · TRR. Jones7 min · TRD. Blakely1 minC. JonesNew
Forwards
F. Roxburgh31 min · TRR. Harrison31 min · TRL. Dembele20 min · TRT. Kropp12 min · TRM. SankheNewB. KymanNew
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WSUDUKE
Scoring
75.7 #152Points per game81.6 #36
1.10 #136Points per possession1.23 #4
68.9 #183Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
54.7 #48Effective FG%56.6 #13
36.5 #403-point %34.7 #133
44.8 #733-point attempt rate43.5 #100
30.2 #305Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
18.5 #295Turnover rate16.0 #139
29.5 #221Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
13.8 #163Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
77.3 #245Points allowed63.6 #3
1.12 #266Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
52.6 #248Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
35.4 #273Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
14.5 #322Turnovers forced17.2 #133
71.8 #71Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
5.5 #299Steals per game7.4 #92
2.9 #242Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Washington St

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland68–74
  • L@ Pepperdine79–88
  • L@ LMU66–67
  • Lvs Saint Mary's67–83
  • Wvs Pacific87–70

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.