Bridgestone Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UK -8.5✓ LSU covered by 3.5
UK -8.5✓ LSU covered by 3.5Closing total151.5Over by 17.5
 LSU | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 15-16 | Record | 19-12 |
| 17-14 | ATS | 15-16 |
| 15-16 | O/U | 15-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LSU 76–82 UK · ✓ UK (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 43 | 39 | 82 |
| UK | 46 | 41 | 87 |
1st half: LSU 43, UK 46 (UK by 3). The model had UK by 3.4 and a total of 73.8 (actual 89).
Team stats
| LSU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-64 50% | Field goals | 32-64 50% |
| 5-20 25% | 3-pointers | 6-22 27% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 17-23 74% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 33 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 15 |
| 1 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reece G | 38 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 5-11 | 0-4 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 36 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-2 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 35 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Max Mackinnon G | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 11-17 | 2-6 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rashad King G | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| PJ Carter G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Jalen Reed, Robert Miller III, Mazi Mosley, Dedan Thomas Jr., Jaden Bobbett, Matt Gilhool, Ron Zipper, Marcus Vaughn
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 39 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 8-19 | 0-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 37 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 6-13 | 1-5 |
| Collin Chandler G | 31 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Garrison F | 26 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 7-9 | 2-3 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 21 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Kam Williams G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Trent Noah, Reece Potter, Zach Tow, Jaland Lowe
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -8.5
ModelUK -6.0
Model edgeLSU +2.5
W LSU covered
Total
Market151.5
Model158.0
Model edgeOver 6.5
W Over
Projected score
LSU 76 · UK 82
LSU 82 · UK 87
Win probability
UK 70%
1st half
Spread
UK -3.4
UK -3.0
Total
73.8
89 points
Projected score
LSU 35.2 · UK 38.6
LSU 43 · UK 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -6.5
2 → UK
CloseUK -8.5
2 pts toward UK
Total
Open153.5
▼ 2
Close151.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
LSU +340 · UK -440
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -6.5 · closed UK -8.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel UK -6
model UK -6
Opened 153.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 2 downmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| UK | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
LSU 2–4 UKUK leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · UK has won the last 2 meetings · LSU 5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | UK 75 @ LSU 74 | LSU +3.5 | LSU W |
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | LSU 64 @ UK 95 | UK -12.5 | UK W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | UK 74 @ LSU 75 | LSU +5.5 | LSU W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | LSU 71 @ UK 74 | UK -10.5 | LSU W |
| Feb 23, 2021-22 | LSU 66 @ UK 71 | UK -7.5 | LSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
LSU
31 games played
Straight up
15-16
48% wins
Against the spread
17-14
55% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @ TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vs SC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @ VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsUK | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | vs MIZ | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | @ FLA | L 61-79 | +15.5 | L −2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ ARK | L 81-85 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 28 | vs MSST | L 66-80 | -7.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @SC | W 92-87 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vs UGA | L 71-83 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 10 | vsARK | L 62-91 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 14 | @ TENN | L 63-73 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 17 | @ TEX | L 85-88 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 21 | vs ALA | L 83-90 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 172.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 25 | @ MISS | W 106-99 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 205 |
| Feb 28 | vs OU | L 67-83 | -1.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 3 | @ AUB | L 74-88 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 7 | vsTA&M | L 91-94 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | O 185 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
+2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
+6.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−2.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+6.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−21.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+2.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−10.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−24.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
+4.5
17
@TEX
TEXL 85-88
+7.5
21
vsALA
ALAL 83-90
+0.5
25
@MISS
MISSW 106-99
+9.5
28
vsOU
OUL 67-83
−17.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 74-88
−3.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&ML 91-94
−0.5
covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
−2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
−0.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−18.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+2.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−8.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+31.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−7.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−6.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
−7.5
17
@TEX
TEXL 85-88
+22.5
21
vsALA
ALAL 83-90
+0.5
25
@MISS
MISSW 106-99
+57.5
28
vsOU
OUL 67-83
−5.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 74-88
+6.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&ML 91-94
+23.5
over 15under 16avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
31 games played
Straight up
19-12
61% wins
Against the spread
15-16
48% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vsMIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vsMSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vsTEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsMISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vsOU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsUGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vsVAN | W 91-77 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @TA&M | L 85-96 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 7 | vsFLA | L 77-84 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | U 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+12.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
−9.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+10.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
+18.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
over 15under 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
LSU
15-16 overall · 3-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Texas A&M91–94
- L@ Auburn74–88
- Lvs Oklahoma67–83
- W@ Ole Miss106–99
- Lvs Alabama83–90
4 days since their last game.
Kentucky
19-12 overall · 10-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Florida77–84
- L@ Texas A&M85–96
- Wvs Vanderbilt91–77
- W@ South Carolina72–63
- L@ Auburn74–75
4 days since their last game.