State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -1.5✓ MICH covered by 12.5
MICH -1.5✓ MICH covered by 12.5Closing total159.5Under by 5.5
| MICH | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 26-2 | Record | 22-6 |
| 14-14 | ATS | 17-11 |
| 11-17 | O/U | 12-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 82–80 ILL · ✓ MICH (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 38 | 46 | 84 |
| ILL | 31 | 39 | 70 |
1st half: MICH 38, ILL 31 (MICH by 7). The model had MICH by 1.4 and a total of 75.8 (actual 69).
Team stats
| MICH | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-59 53% | Field goals | 26-63 41% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 9-29 31% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 34 11 off | Rebounds | 30 12 off |
| 15 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 39 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 6-11 | 2-6 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 33 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 27 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3-9 | 0-3 |
| Aday Mara C | 22 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Will Tschetter F | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| L.J. Cason G | 13 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May, Howard Eisley Jr., Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 38 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 7-17 | 3-6 |
| David Mirkovic F | 36 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 34 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 6-14 | 1-6 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 27 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Jake Davis F | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers, Brandon Lee, Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -1.5
ModelMICH -2.1
Model edgeMICH +0.6
W MICH covered
Total
Market159.5
Model162.2
Model edgeOver 2.7
L Under
Projected score
MICH 82.2 · ILL 80
MICH 84 · ILL 70
Win probability
MICH 57%
1st half
Spread
MICH -1.4
MICH -7.0
Total
75.8
69 points
Projected score
MICH 38.6 · ILL 37.2
MICH 38 · ILL 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -1.5
no move
CloseMICH -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▲ 3
Close159.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -130 · ILL +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -1.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -2
model MICH -2
Opened 156.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 3 upmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| ILL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MICH 0–6 ILLILL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 6 meetings · MICH 1-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024-25 | ILL 93 @ MICH 73 | MICH -3.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | MICH 68 @ ILL 97 | ILL -14.5 | ILL W |
| Jan 18, 2023-24 | ILL 88 @ MICH 73 | MICH +2.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 2, 2022-23 | MICH 87 @ ILL 91 | ILL -4.5 | MICH W |
| Feb 27, 2021-22 | ILL 93 @ MICH 85 | MICH PK | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
28 games played
Straight up
26-2
93% wins
Against the spread
14-14
50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-17
39% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vs DUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
over 11under 17avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
28 games played
Straight up
22-6
79% wins
Against the spread
17-11
61% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-16
43% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vsMD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vsWASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vsWIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vsIU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
covered 17didn’t cover 11avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
over 12under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
26-2 overall · 16-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
- Lvs Duke63–68
- W@ Purdue91–80
- Wvs UCLA86–56
- W@ Northwestern87–75
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
22-6 overall · 13-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCLA94–95
- W@ USC101–65
- Wvs Indiana71–51
- Lvs Wisconsin90–92
- L@ Michigan St82–85
6 days since their last game.