Colgate Raiders at Washington Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETAlaska Airlines Arena · at Washington

LineWASH -14.5no move

Total153.5up 1 from 152.5

Season records: Colgate and Washington
COLG	This season	WASH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WASH 86–64 · win probability WASH 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

WASH -14.5

no move since the open

Total

153.5

model 149.6 · Under by 4

Model edge

WASH by 7

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WASH has more of the edges

COLG 3, WASH 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WASHBig

WASH offense vs COLG defense

Offense 57th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings

WASHBig

COLG offense vs WASH defense

Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 48th, on the model’s ratings

WASHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLG 26.6%, WASH 34.6%. Defensive: COLG 70.7%, WASH 71.5%

Context

Schedule so far

COLG has played the 178th-hardest schedule, WASH the 46th. A record against a soft schedule means less

COLGSmall

Three-pointers

COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%; WASH hits 31.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 35.0% and 34.6% of their shots

WASHSmall

Home court

WASH at home. This season: WASH 0-0 at home, COLG 0-0 away

COLGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLG 59%, WASH 34%. Transfers in: COLG 0, WASH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

COLGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLG 14.7%, WASH 15.3%. Forced: COLG 15.2%, WASH 14.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLG 29.7, WASH 30.1. Allowed: COLG 33.8, WASH 31.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2; WASH 51.2 and allows 50.1

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: COLG plays 68.6 a game (202nd fastest), WASH 68.8 (196th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	1928	88%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	988	88%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenWASH -14.5

no move

NowWASH -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open152.5

▲ 1

Now153.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

COLG +805 · WASH -1515

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened WASH -14.5 · unchangedmodel WASH -21.5

model WASH -21.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5

Bets

24%76%

Money

25%75%

COLGWinner

WASH

Bets

97%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	COLG	WASH	Over	Under	COLG	WASH
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	153-110	153-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-14.5-112	+14.5-114	153.5-113	153.5-113	+750	-1430
BovadaBovada	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	153-110	153-110	—	—
FanDuelFD	-14.5-110	+14.5-110	153.5-110	153.5-110	+860	-1600
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-14.5-106	+14.5-106	153-108	153-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	WASH -14.5	WASH -21.5	WASH +7.0
Total	153.5	149.6	Under 3.9
Projected score	—	COLG 64.1 · WASH 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WASH -12.7	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	COLG 28.7 · WASH 41.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLG LLLWL	12-19	39%	7-9	5-3
WASH LWLWW	20-13	61%	9-7	11-8

Venue/role: COLG away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG OUOOU	17-14	55%	16-15
WASH OOOOO	15-18	45%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLG	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
WASH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Colgate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ DREX	W90–83WO
Nov 11	@ SJU	L64–82LU
Nov 15	@ DEL	L68–72LU

Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs MVSU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ UTAH	W74–65LU
Nov 19	vs UTU	W78–67LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W L W W W W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O O U U O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 28	vsUALB	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsFOR	W 72-62	-1.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 10	@SBU	L 77-85	+9.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 21	@FLA	L 60-90	+27.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 28	vsHARV	L 69-78	-3.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 31	@LAF	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@ARMY	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsAMER	W 64-62	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsLEH	L 77-78	-11.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@L-MD	W 86-80	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBUCK	W 95-76	-8.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	@AMER	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsBU	W 80-79	-7.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsHC	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@LEH	L 76-77	-3.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	vsARMY	W 69-55	-10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	@BUCK	W 78-59	-5.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 11	@HC	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 14	vsNAVY	L 80-84	-1.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 16	@BU	L 58-85	-2.5	L −29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 21	vsL-MD	W 101-98	-8.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsLAF	L 69-70	-8.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	@NAVY	L 69-85	+6.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsL-MD	W 90-77	-6.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 167
Mar 8	@LEH	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

+8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+1.5

FLA

L 60-90

−2.5

HARV

L 69-78

−12.5

LAF

W 85-77

+1.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−0.5

AMER

W 64-62

−3.5

LEH

L 77-78

−12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

−2.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+10.5

AMER

L 66-70

−2.5

W 80-79

−6.5

W 79-74

−5.5

LEH

L 76-77

−4.5

ARMY

W 69-55

+3.5

BUCK

W 78-59

+13.5

W 74-70

−4.5

NAVY

L 80-84

−5.5

L 58-85

−29.5

L-MD

W 101-98

−5.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

−9.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+6.5

LEH

L 69-76

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

−8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+19.5

FLA

L 60-90

−6.5

HARV

L 69-78

+5.5

LAF

W 85-77

+15.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−2.5

AMER

W 64-62

−22.5

LEH

L 77-78

+12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

+15.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+31.5

AMER

L 66-70

−10.5

W 80-79

+11.5

W 79-74

+8.5

LEH

L 76-77

+6.5

ARMY

W 69-55

−26.5

BUCK

W 78-59

−4.5

W 74-70

+1.5

NAVY

L 80-84

+24.5

L 58-85

−2.5

L-MD

W 101-98

+48.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

+12.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+11.5

LEH

L 69-76

−1.5

over 17under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W L W W W L L W W L W W L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W L L W L W L W W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

U O U U O O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O O U U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsCOLO	L 68-81	-2.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 3	vsUCLA	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	@USC	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 13	vsSUU	W 105-69	-25.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 19	@SEA	L 66-70	-7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsUSD	W 86-56	-18.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsUTAH	W 74-65	-12.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 4	@IU	L 80-90	+9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@PUR	L 73-81	+16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 11	vsOSU	W 81-74	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 155
Jan 14	vsMICH	L 72-82	+12.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsMSU	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 21	@NEB	L 66-76	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 25	vsORE	W 72-57	-7.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 29	@ILL	L 66-75	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 141
Jan 31	@NU	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsIOWA	L 74-84	+2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 7	@UCLA	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 11	vsPSU	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	vsMINN	W 69-57	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 21	@MD	L 60-64	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 24	@RUTG	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsWIS	L 73-90	+1.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 4	vsUSC	W 91-72	-5.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	@ORE	L 79-85	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsUSC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsWIS	L 82-85	+6.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

COLO

L 68-81

−15.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+0.5

USC

W 84-76

+12.5

SUU

W 105-69

+10.5

SEA

L 66-70

−11.5

USD

W 86-56

+11.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−3.5

L 80-90

−0.5

PUR

L 73-81

+8.5

OSU

W 81-74

+5.5

MICH

L 72-82

+2.5

MSU

L 63-80

−13.5

NEB

L 66-76

+0.5

ORE

W 72-57

+7.5

ILL

L 66-75

+3.5

W 76-62

+15.5

IOWA

L 74-84

−7.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+0.5

PSU

L 60-63

−15.5

MINN

W 69-57

+5.5

L 60-64

−8.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+2.5

WIS

L 73-90

−15.5

USC

W 91-72

+13.5

ORE

L 79-85

−7.5

USC

W 83-79

+0.5

WIS

L 82-85

+3.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

COLO

L 68-81

−2.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+20.5

USC

W 84-76

+5.5

SUU

W 105-69

+20.5

SEA

L 66-70

−15.5

USD

W 86-56

−17.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−18.5

L 80-90

+17.5

PUR

L 73-81

−0.5

OSU

W 81-74

−0.5

MICH

L 72-82

−11.5

MSU

L 63-80

−2.5

NEB

L 66-76

−10.5

ORE

W 72-57

−14.5

ILL

L 66-75

−12.5

W 76-62

−8.5

IOWA

L 74-84

+16.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+5.5

PSU

L 60-63

−30.5

MINN

W 69-57

−12.5

L 60-64

−19.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+11.5

WIS

L 73-90

+9.5

USC

W 91-72

+12.5

ORE

L 79-85

+18.5

USC

W 83-79

+7.5

WIS

L 82-85

+9.5

over 15under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Colgate 0, Washington 4, even 1

ColgateBetterWashington

G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32

WASHBig

G R. Beasley TR13.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 84

F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75

Even

G W. Yates12.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 68

F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60

WASHSmall

G L. Watts TR11.8 pts · 6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 87

F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

WASHBig

G P. Friedrichsen TR10.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20

WASHBig

G T. Comer TR11 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Score 68

ColgateBetterWashington

COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3

WASHBig

WASH defense48th of 366 · +2.2

COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5

WASHBig

WASH offense57th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player

WASHBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCOLG betterWASH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Colgate

Guards

J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew

Forwards

A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min

Washington

Guards

R. Beasley34 min · TRW. Yates31 minL. Watts27 min · TRP. Friedrichsen26 min · TRT. Comer25 min · TRH. Zrno19 min · TR

Forwards

N. Dzepina11 minJ. Rencher9 minM. TraoreNewW. BragaNew

Centers

L. Sommerville15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLG75.6 #154

WASH77.1 #114

Points per possession

COLG1.11 #121

WASH1.12 #103

Pace (possessions)

COLG68.6 #202

WASH68.8 #196

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLG53.3 #91

WASH51.2 #187

3-point %

COLG35.6 #81

WASH31.5 #307

3-point attempt rate

COLG35.0 #275

WASH34.6 #284

Free throw rate

COLG29.7 #316

WASH30.1 #308

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLG14.7 #50

WASH15.3 #81

Offensive rebound rate

COLG26.6 #309

WASH34.6 #56

Assists per game

COLG14.2 #130

WASH13.9 #152

Defense

Points allowed

COLG76.2 #222

WASH73.6 #146

Points allowed per possession

COLG1.11 #230

WASH1.07 #140

Opponent effective FG%

COLG52.2 #224

WASH50.1 #108

Opponent 3-point %

COLG34.8 #238

WASH33.6 #163

Turnovers forced

COLG15.2 #268

WASH14.4 #325

Defensive rebound rate

COLG70.7 #125

WASH71.5 #84

Steals per game

COLG6.1 #230

WASH5.7 #271

Blocks per game

COLG2.9 #249

WASH4.2 #58

COLG		WASH
Scoring
75.6 #154	Points per game	77.1 #114
1.11 #121	Points per possession	1.12 #103
68.6 #202	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #196
Shooting
53.3 #91	Effective FG%	51.2 #187
35.6 #81	3-point %	31.5 #307
35.0 #275	3-point attempt rate	34.6 #284
29.7 #316	Free throw rate	30.1 #308
Possessions
14.7 #50	Turnover rate	15.3 #81
26.6 #309	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #56
14.2 #130	Assists per game	13.9 #152
Defense
76.2 #222	Points allowed	73.6 #146
1.11 #230	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #140
52.2 #224	Opponent effective FG%	50.1 #108
34.8 #238	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #163
15.2 #268	Turnovers forced	14.4 #325
70.7 #125	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #84
6.1 #230	Steals per game	5.7 #271
2.9 #249	Blocks per game	4.2 #58

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh69–76
Wvs Loyola MD90–77
L@ Navy69–85
Lvs Lafayette69–70
Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

Washington

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wisconsin82–85
Wvs USC83–79
L@ Oregon79–85
Wvs USC91–72
Lvs Wisconsin73–90

A week or more of rest.