Radford Highlanders at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

LineSF -10.5no move

Total153.5up 1 from 152.5

Season records: Radford and San Francisco
RAD	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SF 79–71 · win probability SF 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

SF -10.5

no move since the open

Total

153.5

model 150.2 · Under by 3.5

Model edge

RAD by 2.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SF has more of the edges

RAD 1, SF 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

RAD has played the 243rd-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: RAD plays 73.6 a game (13th fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

SFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RAD 29.8%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: RAD 67.8%, SF 71.0%

SFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: RAD 42.4, SF 40.1. Allowed: RAD 40.0, SF 29.6

SFSmall

SF offense vs RAD defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 286th, on the model’s ratings

RADSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RAD 17.1%, SF 15.9%. Forced: RAD 18.5%, SF 14.1%

SFSmall

Three-pointers

RAD hits 33.5% and allows 35.5%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 45.4% and 46.1% of their shots

SFSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: RAD 51.4 and allows 53.0; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

SFSmall

Home court

SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, RAD 0-0 away

SFSmall

RAD offense vs SF defense

Offense 213th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RAD 12%, SF 3%. Transfers in: RAD 6, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	1928	88%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	988	88%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSF -10.5

no move

NowSF -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open152.5

▲ 1

Now153.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

RAD +330 · SF -425

Line movement

Median of 4 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened SF -10.5 · unchangedmodel SF -8

model SF -8

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5

Bets

87%13%

Money

87%13%

RADWinner

Bets

99%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

4 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	RAD	SF	Over	Under	RAD	SF
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-10.5-102	+10.5-118	154-110	154-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-10.5-114	+10.5-112	153.5-106	153.5-121	+400	-625
BovadaBovada	-10.5+100	+10.5-120	154-110	154-110	—	—
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-10.5+102	+10.5-114	154-108	154-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	SF -10.5	SF -7.9	RAD +2.6
Total	153.5	150.2	Under 3.3
Projected score	—	RAD 71.1 · SF 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SF -4.6	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	RAD 32.8 · SF 37.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RAD LWWLL	14-15	48%	8-4	8-5
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	5-10	8-11

Venue/role: RAD away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RAD UUUOO	17-12	59%	13-16
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RAD	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Radford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ CAL	No recent meeting
Nov 9	@ TENN	No recent meeting
Nov 18	vs FUR	L64–81LO

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs NDSU	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs MONT	W71–67LU
Nov 14	vs PRST	W80–70LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Radford

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

W L L L L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L L L W L W W L L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O U O U O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsUNCW	L 73-81	+4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 24	@SMU	L 72-89	+23.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 161
Dec 3	vsUSM	L 75-82	-3.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 7	vsSFPA	W 89-56	-13.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 14	vsCOPP	W 107-77	-20.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 18	@W&M	L 83-96	+8.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 21	vsVMI	W 97-90	-11.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 187
Dec 31	@UPST	W 76-69	+1.5	W +8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsPRES	W 80-61	-6.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsUNCA	L 72-91	-4.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@GWEB	W 89-80	-13.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsLONG	W 85-83	-4.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	@WIN	L 75-76	+9.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 23	vsHPU	L 83-93	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 176
Jan 29	@CHSO	W 84-75	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 159
Jan 31	@PRES	W 93-84	+1.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsWIN	L 78-80	+4.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	@HPU	L 77-86	+14.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsCHSO	W 90-80	-4.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 170
Feb 19	vsGWEB	W 82-70	-18.5	L −6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 21	@UNCA	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	vsUPST	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	@LONG	L 74-90	+1.5	L −14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsPRES	L 85-91	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

UNCW

L 73-81

−3.5

SMU

L 72-89

+6.5

USM

L 75-82

−10.5

SFPA

W 89-56

+19.5

COPP

W 107-77

+9.5

W&M

L 83-96

−4.5

VMI

W 97-90

−4.5

UPST

W 76-69

+8.5

PRES

W 80-61

+12.5

UNCA

L 72-91

−23.5

GWEB

W 89-80

−4.5

LONG

W 85-83

−2.5

WIN

L 75-76

+8.5

HPU

L 83-93

−2.5

CHSO

W 84-75

+7.5

PRES

W 93-84

+10.5

WIN

L 78-80

+2.5

HPU

L 77-86

+5.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+5.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−6.5

UNCA

L 73-74

+1.5

UPST

W 71-59

+4.5

LONG

L 74-90

−14.5

PRES

L 85-91

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

UNCW

L 73-81

+2.5

SMU

L 72-89

−4.5

USM

L 75-82

+4.5

SFPA

W 89-56

−9.5

COPP

W 107-77

+29.5

W&M

L 83-96

+8.5

VMI

W 97-90

+28.5

UPST

W 76-69

−13.5

PRES

W 80-61

−6.5

UNCA

L 72-91

+11.5

GWEB

W 89-80

+3.5

LONG

W 85-83

+10.5

WIN

L 75-76

−14.5

HPU

L 83-93

+10.5

CHSO

W 84-75

−3.5

PRES

W 93-84

+25.5

WIN

L 78-80

−3.5

HPU

L 77-86

+0.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+8.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−10.5

UNCA

L 73-74

−2.5

UPST

W 71-59

−22.5

LONG

L 74-90

+9.5

PRES

L 85-91

+29.5

over 17under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Radford 0, San Francisco 0, even 5

RadfordBetterSan Francisco

G J. Robinson TR6.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 52

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G T. Gross TR3.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 21

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F C. Jackson TR4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

Even

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

F P. Kabamba TR5.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F F. Erichsen4.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

RadfordBetterSan Francisco

RAD offense213th of 366 · -6.5

Even

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

RAD defense286th of 366 · -7.2

SFSmall

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.1 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestRAD betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Radford

Guards

J. Robinson17 min · TRT. Gross13 min · TRW. Keel6 minM. Grujicic6 min · TRJ. Kee3 min · TRK. PruettNew

Forwards

C. Jackson17 min · TRP. Kabamba17 min · TRF. Erichsen13 minA. NokesNew

Centers

G. Ferreira5 min

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RAD79.9 #70

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

RAD1.09 #168

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

RAD73.6 #13

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

RAD51.4 #181

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

RAD33.5 #199

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

RAD45.4 #59

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

RAD42.4 #25

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

RAD17.1 #210

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

RAD29.8 #207

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

RAD12.0 #284

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

RAD80.8 #330

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

RAD1.10 #216

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

RAD53.0 #271

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

RAD35.5 #279

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

RAD18.5 #72

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

RAD67.8 #267

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

RAD7.5 #79

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

RAD3.4 #158

SF2.9 #238

RAD		SF
Scoring
79.9 #70	Points per game	73.9 #198
1.09 #168	Points per possession	1.10 #131
73.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
51.4 #181	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
33.5 #199	3-point %	34.6 #140
45.4 #59	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
42.4 #25	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
17.1 #210	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
29.8 #207	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
12.0 #284	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
80.8 #330	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.10 #216	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
53.0 #271	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
35.5 #279	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
18.5 #72	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
67.8 #267	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
7.5 #79	Steals per game	5.1 #332
3.4 #158	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Radford

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-8 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Presbyterian85–91
L@ Longwood74–90
Wvs SC Upstate71–59
L@ UNC Asheville73–74
Wvs Gardner-Webb82–70

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.