1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. ETSU @ ASU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Arizona State Sun Devils

Desert Financial Arena · at Arizona St
#173ETSUETSU
@
#60ASUArizona St
LineASU -17.5no move
Total145.5no move
ETSUThis seasonASU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 82–65 · win probability ASU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ASU -17.5
no move since the open
Total
145.5
model 147.7 · Over by 2
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
96% ETSU
96% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ETSU 4, ASU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
ETSU has played the 309th-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ASUBig
ETSU offense vs ASU defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4
ETSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETSU 28.3%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: ETSU 72.1%, ASU 65.1%
ETSUSmall
Three-pointers
ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 37.8% and 38.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ETSU plays 67.0 a game (279th fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points
ASUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETSU 35.0, ASU 39.5. Allowed: ETSU 36.4, ASU 34.3
ASUSmall
ASU offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETSU 15.2%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: ETSU 18.4%, ASU 18.4%
ASUSmall
Home court
ASU at home. This season: ASU 0-0 at home, ETSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETSU 29%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: ETSU 5, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
ETSU +1150 · ASU -2500
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ASU -17.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -17
Opened 145.5 · now 146 · moved 0.5 upmodel 147.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
ETSU +17.5SpreadASU -17.5
Bets
Money
Over 145.5TotalUnder 145.5
Bets
Money
ETSUWinnerASU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
ETSUASUOverUnderETSUASU
BetMGMMGM——145.5-110145.5-110+1100-2500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-17.5-105+17.5-115146-105146-115——
BetRiversBetRivers-17.5-103+17.5-125146.5-108146.5-118+1150-3335
BetUSBetUS-17.5-105+17.5-115146-105146-115——
BovadaBovada-17.5-105+17.5-115145.5-110145.5-110+1000-2200
DraftKingsDK-17.5-110+17.5-110145.5-115145.5-105+1200-2400
FanDuelFD-16.5-102+16.5-120146.5-110146.5-110+1280-3500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-17.5-101+17.5-111146-103146-113——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadASU -17.5ASU -17.1ETSU +0.4
Total145.5147.7Over 2.2
Projected score—ETSU 65.3 · ASU 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -10.1—
1H total69.1—
1H projected scoreETSU 29.5 · ASU 39.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: ETSU 0, Arizona St 5, even 0
ETSUBetterArizona St
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
ASUBig
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
ASUSmall
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
ASUSmall
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
ASUBig
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
ASUBig
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
ETSUBetterArizona St
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
ASUBig
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
ASUSmall
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
ASUBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
ASUBig
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestETSU betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETSUASU
Scoring
76.8 #121Points per game76.3 #133
1.15 #59Points per possession1.08 #178
67.0 #279Pace (possessions)70.6 #93
Shooting
55.3 #33Effective FG%51.1 #190
34.7 #1323-point %33.4 #202
37.8 #2163-point attempt rate38.4 #201
35.0 #180Free throw rate39.5 #66
Possessions
15.2 #79Turnover rate17.1 #211
28.3 #252Offensive rebound rate29.9 #206
13.9 #154Assists per game13.7 #166
Defense
70.1 #61Points allowed78.3 #273
1.04 #77Points allowed per possession1.11 #239
51.0 #161Opponent effective FG%52.4 #235
32.9 #110Opponent 3-point %35.0 #249
18.4 #79Turnovers forced18.4 #77
72.1 #64Defensive rebound rate65.1 #337
8.6 #16Steals per game7.0 #122
3.3 #180Blocks per game4.6 #32
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.