Matthew Knight Arena · at Oregon
#273MONTMontana
@
#57OREOregon
LineORE -18.5moved 2 toward ORE
Total153.5no move
Season records: Montana and Oregon
MONTThis seasonORE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORE 85–63 · win probability ORE 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ORE -18.5
moved 2 toward ORE
Total
153.5
model 147.6 · Under by 6
Model edge
ORE by 3.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges

MONT 2, ORE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OREBig
ORE offense vs MONT defense
Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less
OREBig
MONT offense vs ORE defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 41.8% and 42.8% of their shots
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points
ORESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, ORE 15.8%
ORESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, ORE 67.7%
ORESmall
Home court
ORE at home. This season: ORE 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: MONT 0, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, ORE 35.0. Allowed: MONT 32.6, ORE 32.0

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
2 pts toward ORE
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
MONT +1150 · ORE -3000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ORE -16.5 · now ORE -18.5 · moved 2 toward OREmodel ORE -22
Opened 153.5 · now 153 · moved 0.5 downmodel 147.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
MONTWinnerORE
Bets
Money
Money leans MONT · 56 pts more of the money than of the bets

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
MONTOREOverUnderMONTORE
BetMGMMGM-18.5-110+18.5-110153.5-105153.5-115+1150-3000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-18.5-110+18.5-110153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-16.5+107+16.5-136153.5-107153.5-120+1050-3335
BetUSBetUS-18.5-110+18.5-110153-110153-110——
BovadaBovada-18.5-110+18.5-110152.5-115152.5-105+1000-2200
DraftKingsDK-17.5-108+17.5-112153.5-105153.5-115+1300-2800
FanDuelFD-18.5-102+18.5-120152.5-115152.5-105+1600-4500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-18.5-106+18.5-106153-108153-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadORE -18.5ORE -21.9ORE +3.4
Total153.5147.6Under 5.9
Projected score—MONT 62.9 · ORE 84.8

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadORE -12.9—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreMONT 28.1 · ORE 41—

Oregon has the better starters

Position by position: Montana 0, Oregon 2, even 3
MontanaBetterOregon
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
OREBig
G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
ORESmall
F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67
MontanaBetterOregon
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
OREBig
ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
OREBig
ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
OREBig
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
OREBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Oregon
Guards
F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew
Forwards
A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTORE
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game70.8 #267
1.06 #216Points per possession1.06 #235
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)66.8 #287
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%49.5 #271
36.6 #383-point %32.0 #277
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate42.8 #121
36.8 #135Free throw rate35.0 #181
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate17.6 #244
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate32.3 #114
14.3 #125Assists per game14.3 #126
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed73.9 #155
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.11 #249
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%50.9 #148
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %33.4 #144
14.3 #326Turnovers forced15.8 #231
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate67.7 #271
5.4 #306Steals per game6.1 #231
2.4 #313Blocks per game3.9 #79

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Maryland60–70
  • Wvs Washington85–79
  • L@ Illinois54–80
  • L@ Northwestern62–63
  • Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.