Matthew Knight Arena · at Oregon
Line
ORE -18.5moved 2 toward ORE
Total153.5no move
| This season | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects ORE 85–63 · win probability ORE 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
ORE -18.5
moved 2 toward ORE
Total
153.5
model 147.6 · Under by 6
Model edge
ORE by 3.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: ORE has more of the edges
MONT 2, ORE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ORE offense vs MONT defense
Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MONT offense vs ORE defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 41.8% and 42.8% of their shots
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, ORE 15.8%
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, ORE 67.7%
Home court
ORE at home. This season: ORE 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: MONT 0, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, ORE 35.0. Allowed: MONT 32.6, ORE 32.0
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 15 to 19.5 | 993 | 94% | 48% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 632 | 93% | 49% | 53% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite | 6763 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 150 to 154.5 | 2755 | 75% | 51% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenORE -16.5
2 → ORE
NowORE -18.5
2 pts toward ORE
Total
Open153.5
no move
Now153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MONT +1150 · ORE -3000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened ORE -16.5 · now ORE -18.5 · moved 2 toward OREmodel ORE -22
model ORE -22
Opened 153.5 · now 153 · moved 0.5 downmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Money leans MONT · 56 pts more of the money than of the bets
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | ORE | Over | Under | MONT | ORE | |
| BetMGMMGM | -18.5-110 | +18.5-110 | 153.5-105 | 153.5-115 | +1150 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -18.5-110 | +18.5-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -16.5+107 | +16.5-136 | 153.5-107 | 153.5-120 | +1050 | -3335 |
| BetUSBetUS | -18.5-110 | +18.5-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -18.5-110 | +18.5-110 | 152.5-115 | 152.5-105 | +1000 | -2200 |
| DraftKingsDK | -17.5-108 | +17.5-112 | 153.5-105 | 153.5-115 | +1300 | -2800 |
| FanDuelFD | -18.5-102 | +18.5-120 | 152.5-115 | 152.5-105 | +1600 | -4500 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -18.5-106 | +18.5-106 | 153-108 | 153-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ORE -18.5 | ORE -21.9 | ORE +3.4 |
| Total | 153.5 | 147.6 | Under 5.9 |
| Projected score | — | MONT 62.9 · ORE 84.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ORE -12.9 | — |
| 1H total | 69.0 | — |
| 1H projected score | MONT 28.1 · ORE 41 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | |
| 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MONT 0–3 OREORE leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ORE has won the last 3 meetings · MONT 1-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024-25 | MONT 48 @ ORE 79 | ORE -17.5 | ORE W |
| Nov 10, 2023-24 | MONT 61 @ ORE 75 | ORE -15.5 | MONT W |
| Nov 29, 2021-22 | MONT 47 @ ORE 87 | ORE -13 | ORE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Montana
30 games played
Straight up
15-15
50% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-16
47% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ | L 68-91 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ | W 102-93 | +10.5 | W +19.5 | 157.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 14 | vs | W 90-82 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | @ | L 81-86 | +17.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 23 | vs | L 63-68 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 87-95 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 162.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 3 | vs | L 72-81 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | @ | W 79-75 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 54-94 | +30.5 | L −9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 1 | vs | W 78-64 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 88-79 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 8 | @ | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 65-66 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 17 | @ | L 67-76 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 19 | @ | W 98-72 | -3.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 22 | vs | W 81-65 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vs | W 69-60 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 29 | @ | W 64-60 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ | L 79-86 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 5 | vs | L 74-82 | -5.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vs | W 73-68 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 71-82 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 19 | @ | L 69-73 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 72-92 | +2.5 | L −17.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 26 | vs | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 28 | vs | W 74-68 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Mar 2 | @ | L 57-85 | +5.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | U 142 |
| Mar 9 | vs | W 95-89 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Mar 10 | vs | W 75-72 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Mar 11 | vs | L 66-77 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
STAN
L 68-91
−10.5
11
@
UNLV
W 102-93
+19.5
14
vs
CP
W 90-82
+0.5
18
@
TA&M
L 81-86
+12.5
23
vs
LAM
L 63-68
−9.5
25
vs
OAK
L 87-95
−12.5
3
vs
NDSU
L 72-81
−12.5
6
@
UND
W 79-75
−1.5
20
@
LOU
L 54-94
−9.5
1
vs
NAU
W 78-64
+8.5
3
vs
UNCO
W 88-79
+10.5
8
@
IDHO
W 79-73
+10.5
10
@
EWU
L 65-66
+0.5
17
@
MTST
L 67-76
−3.5
19
@
NAU
W 98-72
+22.5
22
vs
WEB
W 81-65
+11.5
24
vs
IDST
W 69-60
+4.5
29
@
PRST
W 64-60
+8.5
31
@
SAC
L 79-86
−10.5
5
vs
EWU
L 74-82
−13.5
7
vs
IDHO
W 73-68
+3.5
14
vs
MTST
L 71-82
−13.5
19
@
IDST
L 69-73
−5.5
21
@
WEB
L 72-92
−17.5
26
vs
SAC
W 81-73
+0.5
28
vs
PRST
W 74-68
+4.5
2
@
UNCO
L 57-85
−22.5
9
vs
UNCO
W 95-89
+10.5
10
vs
PRST
W 75-72
+6.5
11
vs
IDHO
L 66-77
−7.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@
STAN
L 68-91
+8.5
11
@
UNLV
W 102-93
+37.5
14
vs
CP
W 90-82
+3.5
18
@
TA&M
L 81-86
+2.5
23
vs
LAM
L 63-68
−17.5
25
vs
OAK
L 87-95
+19.5
3
vs
NDSU
L 72-81
−0.5
6
@
UND
W 79-75
−0.5
20
@
LOU
L 54-94
−18.5
1
vs
NAU
W 78-64
−7.5
3
vs
UNCO
W 88-79
+5.5
8
@
IDHO
W 79-73
−2.5
10
@
EWU
L 65-66
−30.5
17
@
MTST
L 67-76
−7.5
19
@
NAU
W 98-72
+23.5
22
vs
WEB
W 81-65
−11.5
24
vs
IDST
W 69-60
−19.5
29
@
PRST
W 64-60
−19.5
31
@
SAC
L 79-86
+9.5
5
vs
EWU
L 74-82
+4.5
7
vs
IDHO
W 73-68
−11.5
14
vs
MTST
L 71-82
+7.5
19
@
IDST
L 69-73
−7.5
21
@
WEB
L 72-92
+11.5
26
vs
SAC
W 81-73
−7.5
28
vs
PRST
W 74-68
+0.5
2
@
UNCO
L 57-85
−12.5
9
vs
UNCO
W 95-89
+31.5
10
vs
PRST
W 75-72
+1.5
11
vs
IDHO
L 66-77
−4.5
over 14under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Oregon
32 games played
Straight up
12-20
38% wins
Against the spread
12-20
38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-18
44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 2 | vs | L 77-82 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ | L 63-74 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs | W 104-62 | -13.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs | W 94-69 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs | L 82-91 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | vs | W 80-57 | -21.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 2 | @ | W 64-54 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 5 | @ | L 85-88 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 8 | vs | L 62-72 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | @ | L 55-90 | +10.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 71-81 | +18.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs | L 52-68 | +10.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 25 | @ | L 57-72 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 28 | vs | L 57-73 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 1 | vs | L 66-84 | +9.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 64-68 | +19.5 | W +15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 9 | @ | L 74-92 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 14 | vs | W 83-72 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 17 | vs | L 44-61 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 136.5 | U 105 |
| Feb 21 | @ | W 71-70 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 25 | vs | W 85-71 | +5.5 | W +19.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 62-63 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 3 | @ | L 54-80 | +17.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 85-79 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Mar 10 | vs | L 60-70 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
HAW
W 60-59
−10.5
7
vs
RICE
W 67-63
−11.5
12
vs
SDST
W 83-69
−2.5
17
vs
ORST
W 87-75
−1.5
24
vs
AUB
L 73-84
−6.5
25
vs
SDSU
L 80-97
−19.5
27
vs
CREI
L 66-76
−7.5
2
vs
USC
L 77-82
−2.5
6
@
UCLA
L 63-74
−2.5
13
vs
UCD
W 104-62
+28.5
17
vs
PORT
W 94-69
+5.5
21
vs
GONZ
L 82-91
+3.5
28
vs
OMA
W 80-57
+1.5
2
@
MD
W 64-54
+8.5
5
@
RUTG
L 85-88
−7.5
8
vs
OSU
L 62-72
−11.5
13
@
NEB
L 55-90
−24.5
17
vs
MICH
L 71-81
+8.5
20
vs
MSU
L 52-68
−5.5
25
@
WASH
L 57-72
−7.5
28
vs
UCLA
L 57-73
−11.5
1
vs
IOWA
L 66-84
−8.5
7
@
PUR
L 64-68
+15.5
9
@
IU
L 74-92
−7.5
14
vs
PSU
W 83-72
+4.5
17
vs
MINN
L 44-61
−20.5
21
@
USC
W 71-70
+6.5
25
vs
WIS
W 85-71
+19.5
28
@
NU
L 62-63
+2.5
3
@
ILL
L 54-80
−8.5
7
vs
WASH
W 85-79
+7.5
10
vs
MD
L 60-70
−14.5
covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vs
HAW
W 60-59
−25.5
7
vs
RICE
W 67-63
−15.5
12
vs
SDST
W 83-69
+6.5
17
vs
ORST
W 87-75
+20.5
24
vs
AUB
L 73-84
+1.5
25
vs
SDSU
L 80-97
+35.5
27
vs
CREI
L 66-76
−8.5
2
vs
USC
L 77-82
+4.5
6
@
UCLA
L 63-74
−9.5
13
vs
UCD
W 104-62
+19.5
17
vs
PORT
W 94-69
+8.5
21
vs
GONZ
L 82-91
+17.5
28
vs
OMA
W 80-57
−14.5
2
@
MD
W 64-54
−28.5
5
@
RUTG
L 85-88
+33.5
8
vs
OSU
L 62-72
−18.5
13
@
NEB
L 55-90
−1.5
17
vs
MICH
L 71-81
−5.5
20
vs
MSU
L 52-68
−19.5
25
@
WASH
L 57-72
−14.5
28
vs
UCLA
L 57-73
−6.5
1
vs
IOWA
L 66-84
+16.5
7
@
PUR
L 64-68
−12.5
9
@
IU
L 74-92
+22.5
14
vs
PSU
W 83-72
+9.5
17
vs
MINN
L 44-61
−31.5
21
@
USC
W 71-70
−8.5
25
vs
WIS
W 85-71
+3.5
28
@
NU
L 62-63
−16.5
3
@
ILL
L 54-80
−13.5
7
vs
WASH
W 85-79
+18.5
10
vs
MD
L 60-70
−9.5
over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oregon has the better starters
Position by position: Montana 0, Oregon 2, even 3
MontanaBetterOregon
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 24
→OREBig
G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast
Score 88
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 78
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 77
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 48
→ORESmall
F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 64
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 67
MontanaBetterOregon
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
→OREBig
ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
→OREBig
ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
→OREBig
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
→OREBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
Bench+1.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Guards
F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew
Forwards
A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 75.7 #148 | Points per game | 70.8 #267 |
| 1.06 #216 | Points per possession | 1.06 #235 |
| 71.1 #72 | Pace (possessions) | 66.8 #287 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.8 #23 | Effective FG% | 49.5 #271 |
| 36.6 #38 | 3-point % | 32.0 #277 |
| 41.8 #138 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.8 #121 |
| 36.8 #135 | Free throw rate | 35.0 #181 |
| Possessions | ||
| 19.5 #339 | Turnover rate | 17.6 #244 |
| 20.7 #363 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.3 #114 |
| 14.3 #125 | Assists per game | 14.3 #126 |
| Defense | ||
| 77.6 #254 | Points allowed | 73.9 #155 |
| 1.09 #204 | Points allowed per possession | 1.11 #249 |
| 50.5 #129 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.9 #148 |
| 32.3 #74 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.4 #144 |
| 14.3 #326 | Turnovers forced | 15.8 #231 |
| 70.4 #143 | Defensive rebound rate | 67.7 #271 |
| 5.4 #306 | Steals per game | 6.1 #231 |
| 2.4 #313 | Blocks per game | 3.9 #79 |
Montana
15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Idaho66–77
- Wvs Portland St75–72
- Wvs N Colorado95–89
- L@ N Colorado57–85
- Wvs Portland St74–68
A week or more of rest.
Oregon
12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Maryland60–70
- Wvs Washington85–79
- L@ Illinois54–80
- L@ Northwestern62–63
- Wvs Wisconsin85–71
A week or more of rest.