Case Gym · at Boston U
#228NENortheastern
@
#261BUBoston U
LineBU -1.5moved 3 toward BU
Total150.5up 1 from 149.5
Season records: Northeastern and Boston U
NEThis seasonBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BU 75–74 · win probability BU 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
BU -1.5
moved 3 toward BU
Total
150.5
model 148.9 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
NE by 1.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BU has more of the edges

NE 1, BU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: NE 29.4, BU 31.4. Allowed: NE 41.9, BU 30.5
NEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NE 16.3%, BU 17.7%. Forced: NE 16.8%, BU 13.0%
Context
Schedule so far
NE has played the 185th-hardest schedule, BU the 296th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NE plays 69.9 a game (120th fastest), BU 65.2 (340th). Faster games mean more points
BUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NE 52.4 and allows 56.4; BU 57.5 and allows 53.6
BUSmall
Three-pointers
NE hits 33.7% and allows 35.8%; BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 37.8% and 43.8% of their shots
BUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NE 27.3%, BU 28.0%. Defensive: NE 69.8%, BU 72.0%
BUSmall
Home court
BU at home. This season: BU 0-0 at home, NE 0-0 away
Even
BU offense vs NE defense
Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 263rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NE 43%, BU 52%. Transfers in: NE 3, BU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
NE offense vs BU defense
Offense 194th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of under 3193856%51%49%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
3 pts toward BU
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NE -108 · BU -112
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened NE -1.5 · now BU -0.5 · moved 2 toward BUmodel BU -0 matches the line
Opened 149.5 · now 150 · moved 0.5 upmodel 149
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 150.5TotalUnder 150.5
Bets
Money
NEWinnerBU
Bets
Money

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
NEBUOverUnderNEBU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.agPK-110PK-110150-115150-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-0.5-114+0.5-112149.5-112149.5-114-114-112
BovadaBovadaPK-110PK-110150-115150-105——
DraftKingsDK-1.5-115+1.5-105150.5-105150.5-115-105-115
FanDuelFD-1.5-122+1.5+100149.5-115149.5-105-108-111
LowVig.agLowVig.agPK-106PK-106150-113150-103——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadBU -1.5BU -0.2NE +1.3
Total150.5148.9Under 1.6
Projected score—NE 74.3 · BU 74.5

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadPK—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreNE 34.8 · BU 34.8—

Northeastern has the better starters

Position by position: Northeastern 2, Boston U 0, even 3
NortheasternBetterBoston U
G M. Loughnane10.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 45
NESmall
G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13
G R. King TR5.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 46
Even
G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37
G M. Newton5.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G R. Williams7.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
NEBig
F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
C P. Pinter3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 5
Even
F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5
NortheasternBetterBoston U
NE offense194th of 366 · -6.0
Even
BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0
NE defense263rd of 366 · -6.8
Even
BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-0.9 · 4 players
NEBig
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
NESmall
Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 3 players
BUSmall
Bench-0.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNE betterBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northeastern
Guards
M. Loughnane31 minR. King19 min · TRM. Newton17 minR. Williams15 minL. Bond14 min · TRD. GrosberNew
Forwards
B. Young5 min · TRJ. IcitovicNewD. JungNewS. BaptisteNew
Centers
P. Pinter14 minL. Koelsch9 min
Boston U
Guards
A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew
Forwards
S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NEBU
Scoring
74.9 #168Points per game74.5 #176
1.07 #210Points per possession1.14 #72
69.9 #120Pace (possessions)65.2 #340
Shooting
52.4 #130Effective FG%57.5 #11
33.7 #1873-point %38.9 #5
37.8 #2183-point attempt rate43.8 #92
29.4 #324Free throw rate31.4 #270
Possessions
16.3 #159Turnover rate17.7 #252
27.3 #286Offensive rebound rate28.0 #269
15.3 #75Assists per game14.2 #131
Defense
80.9 #331Points allowed74.5 #174
1.16 #335Points allowed per possession1.14 #310
56.4 #351Opponent effective FG%53.6 #288
35.8 #297Opponent 3-point %36.6 #330
16.8 #163Turnovers forced13.0 #353
69.8 #169Defensive rebound rate72.0 #65
7.0 #131Steals per game4.7 #346
3.0 #229Blocks per game3.3 #181

Northeastern

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drexel77–84
  • Wvs NC A&T88–72
  • Lvs Monmouth83–89
  • L@ Hampton65–76
  • L@ William & Mary77–84

A week or more of rest.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh60–74
  • W@ Navy73–72
  • Wvs American75–73
  • W@ American68–65
  • Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.