St. Thomas Tommies at Presbyterian Blue Hose: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETTempleton Center · at Presbyterian

LineSTMN -2.5no move

Total145.5down 1 from 146.5

Season records: St Thomas and Presbyterian
STMN	This season	PRES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRES 74–71 · win probability PRES 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

STMN -2.5

no move since the open

Total

145.5

model 145.2

Model edge

PRES by 5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

STMN 3, PRES 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; PRES hits 31.6% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 46.3% and 28.0% of their shots

STMNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, PRES 19.4%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, PRES 15.7%

STMNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; PRES 51.0 and allows 51.2

PRESSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, PRES 86%. Transfers in: STMN 3, PRES 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), PRES 66.9 (283rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, PRES the 272nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PRESSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, PRES 33.1%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, PRES 69.3%

PRESSmall

Home court

PRES at home. This season: PRES 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

Even

STMN offense vs PRES defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 160th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, PRES 39.4. Allowed: STMN 30.7, PRES 37.1

Even

PRES offense vs STMN defense

Offense 222nd of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of under 3	1412	54%	50%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1094	54%	49%	50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenSTMN -2.5

no move

NowSTMN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open146.5

▼ 1

Now145.5

Down 1 since the open

Moneyline

STMN -162 · PRES +136

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened STMN -2.5 · unchangedmodel PRES -2.5

model PRES -2.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 145.5TotalUnder 145.5

Bets

47%53%

Money

47%53%

STMNWinner

PRES

Bets

86%14%

Money

44%56%

Money leans PRES · 42 pts more of the money than of the bets

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	STMN	PRES	Over	Under	STMN	PRES
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	145.5-110	145.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+2.5-113	-2.5-113	146.5-107	146.5-120	-157	+123
BovadaBovada	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	145.5-110	145.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	145.5-110	145.5-110	-162	+136
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+2.5-106	-2.5-106	145.5-108	145.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	STMN -2.5	PRES -2.7	PRES +5.2
Total	145.5	145.2	Under 0.3
Projected score	—	STMN 71.2 · PRES 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRES -1.5	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	STMN 33.2 · PRES 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	14-11
PRES LWWWW	17-13	57%	7-4	12-9

Venue/role: STMN away, as favorite; PRES home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
PRES OOUOU	16-14	53%	12-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PRES	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ MINN	No recent meeting
Nov 8	vs GB	W80–61WU
Nov 14	@ ARMY	W83–76LO

Presbyterian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ UGA	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ NCSU	L72–81WU
Nov 18	vs MER	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Presbyterian

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L W W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 30	vsCIT	W 69-41	-8.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 3	@WOF	L 56-63	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 119
Dec 6	vsMORE	W 80-72	-7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 17	@ECU	L 53-74	+4.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 21	@MAN	L 81-87	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUPST	W 86-77	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 7	@RAD	L 61-80	+6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	@LONG	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 14	vsUNCA	W 71-70	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	@GWEB	W 92-55	-8.5	W +28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	vsCHSO	W 87-83	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsWIN	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 29	@HPU	L 81-84	+14.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsRAD	L 84-93	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsGWEB	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	@CHSO	L 67-84	+1.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@UNCA	W 58-57	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	vsLONG	W 72-65	-2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@UPST	L 74-76	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	vsHPU	L 73-79	+12.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 152
Feb 28	@WIN	L 70-74	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsRAD	W 91-85	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 176
Mar 7	vsWIN	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-41

+19.5

WOF

L 56-63

−2.5

W 80-72

+0.5

ECU

L 53-74

−16.5

MAN

L 81-87

−8.5

UPST

W 86-77

+7.5

RAD

L 61-80

−12.5

LONG

L 70-77

−3.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+3.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+28.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+5.5

WIN

L 72-82

−4.5

HPU

L 81-84

+11.5

RAD

L 84-93

−10.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−11.5

CHSO

L 67-84

−15.5

UNCA

W 58-57

+6.5

LONG

W 72-65

+4.5

UPST

L 74-76

−3.5

HPU

L 73-79

+6.5

WIN

L 70-74

+3.5

RAD

W 91-85

+8.5

WIN

L 71-73

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

CIT

W 69-41

−23.5

WOF

L 56-63

−19.5

W 80-72

+17.5

ECU

L 53-74

−4.5

MAN

L 81-87

+29.5

UPST

W 86-77

+25.5

RAD

L 61-80

−6.5

LONG

L 70-77

+7.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+2.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+1.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+22.5

WIN

L 72-82

+7.5

HPU

L 81-84

+15.5

RAD

L 84-93

+25.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−15.5

CHSO

L 67-84

+4.5

UNCA

W 58-57

−22.5

LONG

W 72-65

−2.5

UPST

L 74-76

+8.5

HPU

L 73-79

+0.5

WIN

L 70-74

−6.5

RAD

W 91-85

+29.5

WIN

L 71-73

−1.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 0, Presbyterian 1, even 4

St ThomasBetterPresbyterian

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

Even

G C. Parrish14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 56

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

PRESSmall

G T. Wilson11.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 52

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

No call

G E. Taylor5.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Not ranked

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

Even

G I. King3.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Peterson11 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

St ThomasBetterPresbyterian

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

Even

PRES defense160th of 366 · -3.5

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

Even

PRES offense222nd of 366 · -6.8

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STMNBig

Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

PRESBig

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterPRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Presbyterian

Guards

C. Parrish35 minT. Wilson32 minE. Taylor21 minI. King19 minK. Hudson11 minJ. Bowden8 min

Forwards

J. Peterson30 minC. Chiakwelu11 minA. AyelyineNewL. HackworthNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

PRES70.0 #286

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

PRES1.05 #249

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

PRES66.9 #283

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

PRES51.0 #196

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

PRES31.6 #302

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

PRES28.0 #360

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

PRES39.4 #71

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

PRES19.4 #335

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

PRES33.1 #86

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

PRES12.4 #260

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

PRES73.1 #133

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

PRES1.09 #192

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

PRES51.2 #170

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

PRES34.7 #235

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

PRES15.7 #237

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

PRES69.3 #188

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

PRES5.5 #303

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

PRES4.5 #35

STMN		PRES
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	70.0 #286
1.16 #45	Points per possession	1.05 #249
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	66.9 #283
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	51.0 #196
36.0 #57	3-point %	31.6 #302
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	28.0 #360
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	39.4 #71
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	19.4 #335
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #86
16.4 #37	Assists per game	12.4 #260
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	73.1 #133
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #192
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #170
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #235
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	15.7 #237
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #188
7.5 #87	Steals per game	5.5 #303
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	4.5 #35

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Presbyterian

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-10 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop71–73
Wvs Radford91–85
L@ Winthrop70–74
Lvs High Point73–79
L@ SC Upstate74–76

A week or more of rest.