Binghamton Bearcats at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETWelsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern

LineNU -23.5no move

Total146.5up 1 from 145.5

Season records: Binghamton and Northwestern
BING	This season	NU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 87–61 · win probability NU 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

NU -23.5

no move since the open

Total

146.5

model 147.4 · Over by 1

Model edge

NU by 2.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

95% BING

94% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

BING 3, NU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

BING has played the 350th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BING 18.7%, NU 13.1%. Forced: BING 13.3%, NU 17.5%

NUBig

BING offense vs NU defense

Offense 274th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings

NUBig

NU offense vs BING defense

Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 273rd, on the model’s ratings

NUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BING 50.0 and allows 54.3; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0

BINGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BING 41.5, NU 33.9. Allowed: BING 34.6, NU 34.8

NUSmall

Three-pointers

BING hits 32.5% and allows 35.8%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 30.9% and 34.0% of their shots

BINGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BING 65%, NU 24%. Transfers in: BING 4, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BINGSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BING 20.9%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: BING 70.6%, NU 65.3%

NUSmall

Home court

NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, BING 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: BING plays 66.5 a game (294th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNU -23.5

no move

NowNU -23.5

No change since the open

Total

Open145.5

▲ 1

Now146.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

BING +2200 · NU -8000

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened NU -23.5 · now NU -22.5 · moved 1 toward BINGmodel NU -26

model NU -26

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

BING +23.5Spread

NU -23.5

Bets

95%

Money

94%

Over 146.5TotalUnder 146.5

Bets

55%45%

Money

65%35%

Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on Over 146.5

BINGWinner

Bets

96%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BING	NU	Over	Under	BING	NU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-22.5-105	+22.5-115	146.5-110	146.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-23.5-115	+23.5-110	146.5-112	146.5-114	—	—
BovadaBovada	-22.5-105	+22.5-115	146.5-110	146.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-23.5-115	+23.5-105	146.5-110	146.5-110	+2200	-8000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-22.5-101	+22.5-111	146.5-108	146.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 4:30 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	NU -23.5	NU -26.2	NU +2.7
Total	146.5	147.4	Over 0.9
Projected score	—	BING 60.6 · NU 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -15.5	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	BING 26.7 · NU 42.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BING WWLWW	13-15	46%	6-9	13-12
NU WWWWW	18-16	53%	8-9	7-9

Venue/role: BING away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BING OOOUO	16-12	57%	5-23
NU UUUUO	15-19	44%	15-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BING	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Binghamton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ SPU	No recent meeting
Nov 8	vs RID	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ DUQ	No recent meeting

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs STBK	No recent meeting
Nov 9	vs BU	W76–52WU
Nov 13	vs DEP	W81–79LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BING 0–1 NUNU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BING 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	BING 61 @ NU 72	NU -17.5	BING W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Binghamton

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L L W W L L W L L L L W L W W L L W L W L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

U U O O U O O U O O O O U U U U U O O U O U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SYR	L 47-85	+21.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsNIA	L 59-67	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@GTWN	L 70-83	+27.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 153
Nov 15	@LONG	L 82-90	+15.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 22	vsUMES	L 52-63	-5.5	L −16.5	125.5	U 115
Nov 23	@CAN	L 66-75	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 141
Dec 2	vsLEH	W 80-71	+3.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 6	vsLEM	L 63-78	+2.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 13	vsCCSU	L 67-84	+7.5	L −9.5	133.5	O 151
Dec 17	@PITT	L 63-103	+24.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 20	@MERC	L 61-82	+7.5	L −13.5	132.5	O 143
Dec 23	@ARMY	L 85-95	+12.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsNJIT	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 8	@UVM	L 59-60	+20.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 10	vsUML	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 15	@UALB	L 53-69	+8.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 122
Jan 19	vsUMBC	L 60-78	+4.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 22	@UNH	L 82-88	+9.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 170
Jan 24	@ME	L 63-79	+5.5	L −10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 29	vsBRY	W 63-60	+2.5	W +5.5	130.5	U 123
Feb 5	@UMBC	L 62-79	+11.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 141
Feb 7	@NJIT	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 12	vsUVM	L 65-73	+11.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsUALB	L 74-77	+4.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 19	@BRY	W 79-67	+4.5	W +16.5	134.5	O 146
Feb 21	@UML	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 171
Feb 26	vsUNH	W 65-63	+2.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 28	vsME	W 74-67	+1.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SYR

L 47-85

−16.5

NIA

L 59-67

−10.5

GTWN

L 70-83

+14.5

LONG

L 82-90

+7.5

UMES

L 52-63

−16.5

CAN

L 66-75

−6.5

LEH

W 80-71

+12.5

LEM

L 63-78

−12.5

CCSU

L 67-84

−9.5

PITT

L 63-103

−15.5

MERC

L 61-82

−13.5

ARMY

L 85-95

+2.5

NJIT

L 65-73

−11.5

UVM

L 59-60

+19.5

UML

L 68-73

+1.5

UALB

L 53-69

−7.5

UMBC

L 60-78

−13.5

UNH

L 82-88

+3.5

L 63-79

−10.5

BRY

W 63-60

+5.5

UMBC

L 62-79

−5.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−0.5

UVM

L 65-73

+3.5

UALB

L 74-77

+1.5

BRY

W 79-67

+16.5

UML

L 79-92

−3.5

UNH

W 65-63

+4.5

W 74-67

+8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SYR

L 47-85

−21.5

NIA

L 59-67

−12.5

GTWN

L 70-83

+11.5

LONG

L 82-90

+24.5

UMES

L 52-63

−10.5

CAN

L 66-75

+11.5

LEH

W 80-71

+11.5

LEM

L 63-78

−3.5

CCSU

L 67-84

+17.5

PITT

L 63-103

+31.5

MERC

L 61-82

+10.5

ARMY

L 85-95

+39.5

NJIT

L 65-73

−2.5

UVM

L 59-60

−21.5

UML

L 68-73

−5.5

UALB

L 53-69

−16.5

UMBC

L 60-78

−2.5

UNH

L 82-88

+34.5

L 63-79

+17.5

BRY

W 63-60

−7.5

UMBC

L 62-79

+2.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−3.5

UVM

L 65-73

+1.5

UALB

L 74-77

+14.5

BRY

W 79-67

+11.5

UML

L 79-92

+24.5

UNH

W 65-63

−13.5

W 74-67

+7.5

over 16under 12avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

34 games played

Straight up

15-19

44% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1944%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L W L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1944%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 8	@MSU	L 66-76	+13.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	@RUTG	L 75-77	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 14	vsILL	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsNEB	L 58-77	+4.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	@USC	W 74-68	+6.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 24	@UCLA	L 64-71	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsPSU	W 94-73	-7.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsWASH	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	@ILL	L 44-84	+16.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 8	@IOWA	L 70-76	+10.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	vsMICH	L 75-87	+15.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 14	@NEB	L 49-68	+13.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 18	vsMD	W 78-74	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 24	@IU	W 72-68	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsORE	W 63-62	-3.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsPUR	L 66-70	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	@MINN	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 10	vsPSU	W 76-66	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 142
Mar 11	vsIU	W 74-61	+6.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsPUR	L 68-81	+13.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

MSU

L 66-76

+3.5

RUTG

L 75-77

−6.5

ILL

L 68-79

−1.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

+12.5

UCLA

L 64-71

+0.5

PSU

W 94-73

+13.5

WASH

L 62-76

−15.5

ILL

L 44-84

−23.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+4.5

MICH

L 75-87

+3.5

NEB

L 49-68

−5.5

W 78-74

−3.5

W 72-68

+13.5

ORE

W 63-62

−2.5

PUR

L 66-70

+8.5

MINN

L 66-67

+3.5

PSU

W 76-66

+5.5

W 74-61

+19.5

PUR

L 68-81

+0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

MSU

L 66-76

−1.5

RUTG

L 75-77

+7.5

ILL

L 68-79

−4.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

−7.5

UCLA

L 64-71

−8.5

PSU

W 94-73

+18.5

WASH

L 62-76

−8.5

ILL

L 44-84

−21.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+6.5

MICH

L 75-87

+8.5

NEB

L 49-68

−29.5

W 78-74

+9.5

W 72-68

−5.5

ORE

W 63-62

−16.5

PUR

L 66-70

−9.5

MINN

L 66-67

−0.5

PSU

W 76-66

−1.5

W 74-61

−7.5

PUR

L 68-81

+9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern has the better starters

Position by position: Binghamton 0, Northwestern 2, even 3

BinghamtonBetterNorthwestern

G J. Quigley14.6 pts · 4.9 reb · 6.3 ast Score 68

No call

G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

G K. Robinson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 40

NUBig

F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97

G J. Kelsey0 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

F S. Snagg3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4

NUBig

F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

C D. Lilley14.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

Even

F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

BinghamtonBetterNorthwestern

BING offense274th of 366 · -8.3

NUBig

NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7

BING defense273rd of 366 · -6.9

NUBig

NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

NUBig

Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

NUBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players

Bench-2.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBING betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Binghamton

Guards

J. Quigley37 minK. Robinson26 min · TRJ. Kelsey21 minJ. Blackburn16 minB. Montgomery4 min · TRN. Ibroci3 min

Forwards

S. Snagg20 minD. Godfrey9 min · TRS. SenghoreNew

Centers

D. Lilley33 minJ. Karram4 min · TR

Northwestern

Guards

L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min

Forwards

J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew

Centers

S. GhaiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BING66.8 #338

NU73.2 #220

Points per possession

BING1.00 #328

NU1.12 #100

Pace (possessions)

BING66.5 #294

NU65.5 #328

Shooting

Effective FG%

BING50.0 #235

NU51.7 #159

3-point %

BING32.5 #254

NU33.0 #232

3-point attempt rate

BING30.9 #340

NU34.0 #296

Free throw rate

BING41.5 #37

NU33.9 #213

Possessions

Turnover rate

BING18.7 #308

NU13.1 #6

Offensive rebound rate

BING20.9 #361

NU28.1 #260

Assists per game

BING11.1 #331

NU17.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

BING76.6 #233

NU72.0 #106

Points allowed per possession

BING1.16 #333

NU1.09 #210

Opponent effective FG%

BING54.3 #309

NU51.0 #157

Opponent 3-point %

BING35.8 #294

NU33.4 #145

Turnovers forced

BING13.3 #349

NU17.5 #120

Defensive rebound rate

BING70.6 #128

NU65.3 #332

Steals per game

BING5.0 #333

NU5.8 #256

Blocks per game

BING2.8 #256

NU3.6 #131

BING		NU
Scoring
66.8 #338	Points per game	73.2 #220
1.00 #328	Points per possession	1.12 #100
66.5 #294	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #328
Shooting
50.0 #235	Effective FG%	51.7 #159
32.5 #254	3-point %	33.0 #232
30.9 #340	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #296
41.5 #37	Free throw rate	33.9 #213
Possessions
18.7 #308	Turnover rate	13.1 #6
20.9 #361	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #260
11.1 #331	Assists per game	17.2 #18
Defense
76.6 #233	Points allowed	72.0 #106
1.16 #333	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #210
54.3 #309	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #157
35.8 #294	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #145
13.3 #349	Turnovers forced	17.5 #120
70.6 #128	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #332
5.0 #333	Steals per game	5.8 #256
2.8 #256	Blocks per game	3.6 #131

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Binghamton

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Maine74–67
Wvs New Hampshire65–63
L@ UMass Lowell79–92
W@ Bryant79–67
Lvs UAlbany74–77

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue68–81
Wvs Indiana74–61
Wvs Penn State76–66
L@ Minnesota66–67
Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.