Furman Paladins vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETSanford Pentagon · Neutral site

LineFUR -4.5no move

Total148.5down 2 from 150.5

Season records: Furman and Bethune
FUR	This season	BCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FUR 76–72 · win probability FUR 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

FUR -4.5

no move since the open

Total

148.5

model 147.8 · Under by 0.5

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

FUR 3, BCU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: FUR plays 67.2 a game (273rd fastest), BCU 71.8 (43rd). Faster games mean more points

FURSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FUR 30.5%, BCU 30.1%. Defensive: FUR 71.8%, BCU 68.3%

FURSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2; BCU 51.0 and allows 49.7

FURSmall

FUR offense vs BCU defense

Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 218th, on the model’s ratings

Even

BCU offense vs FUR defense

Offense 188th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FUR 46%, BCU 25%. Transfers in: FUR 4, BCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%; BCU hits 33.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 29.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FUR 17.8%, BCU 19.2%. Forced: FUR 13.7%, BCU 15.8%

Context

Schedule so far

FUR has played the 224th-hardest schedule, BCU the 244th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FUR 32.7, BCU 40.9. Allowed: FUR 28.9, BCU 38.6

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Neutral-site favorites of 3 to 6.5	928	66%	50%	47%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenFUR -4.5

no move

NowFUR -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open150.5

▼ 2

Now148.5

Down 2 since the open

Moneyline

FUR -198 · BCU +164

Line movement

Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened FUR -4.5 · unchangedmodel FUR -4.5 matches the line

model FUR -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

FURWinner

BCU

Bets

96%

Money

23%77%

Money leans BCU · 73 pts more of the money than of the bets

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	FUR	BCU	Over	Under	FUR	BCU
BetMGMMGM	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	148.5-110	148.5-110	-200	+165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	149-105	149-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+4.5-112	-4.5-114	150.5-113	150.5-113	-215	+163
BovadaBovada	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	149-105	149-115	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-110	-4.5-110	148.5-110	148.5-110	-198	+164
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+4.5-106	-4.5-106	149-103	149-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	FUR -4.5	FUR -4.5	—
Total	148.5	147.8	Under 0.7
Projected score	—	FUR 76.1 · BCU 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FUR -2.8	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	FUR 36 · BCU 33.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FUR LWWWW	16-16	50%	5-2	11-12
BCU WWWLL	15-16	48%	0-3	6-5

Venue/role: FUR neutral site, as favorite; BCU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FUR OOOUO	16-16	50%	19-13
BCU OOOOU	18-13	58%	16-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FUR	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
BCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Furman

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UNI	L54–70LU
Nov 11	@ HC	No recent meeting
Nov 14	@ BEL	W76–74WU

Bethune

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ TTU	L61–94LO
Nov 7	@ GCU	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ SDSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Furman

32 games played

Straight up

19-13

59% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1359%

L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L L L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L L W W L W W L L L L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U U O U U O O U O U U U U O U O O O U O U U O O U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHPU	L 71-97	+3.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTROY	L 61-64	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@UNI	L 54-70	+9.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 23	vsQUC	W 90-79	-8.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsRICH	W 73-72	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsILST	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	@ELON	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsHARV	W 79-69	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 18	@MAN	W 75-68	-10.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsCHSO	W 84-76	-10.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 31	vsMER	W 74-72	-2.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	vsWCU	L 77-80	-8.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 7	@UTC	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 10	vsVMI	W 69-48	-12.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 14	@SAM	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsWOF	L 70-74	-4.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 144
Jan 21	@CIT	L 75-77	-11.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@UNCG	W 89-66	-4.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	vsSAM	W 78-73	-5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	vsUTC	W 75-70	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 4	@ETSU	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 146
Feb 8	vsUNCG	L 64-67	-10.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	@MER	L 64-69	+3.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 133
Feb 14	@VMI	W 90-72	-11.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsETSU	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@WOF	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 25	vsCIT	W 72-51	-15.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WCU	L 67-86	-1.5	L −20.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsSAM	W 86-81	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 167
Mar 8	vsUNCG	W 81-75	-5.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 9	vsETSU	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 137
Mar 20	vsCONN	L 71-82	+20.5	W +9.5	133.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

−22.5

TROY

L 61-64

−5.5

UNI

L 54-70

−6.5

QUC

W 90-79

+2.5

RICH

W 73-72

+4.5

ILST

L 65-72

−3.5

ELON

W 97-88

+7.5

HARV

W 79-69

+5.5

MAN

W 75-68

−3.5

CHSO

W 84-76

−2.5

MER

W 74-72

−0.5

WCU

L 77-80

−11.5

UTC

W 78-67

+8.5

VMI

W 69-48

+8.5

SAM

W 77-73

+2.5

WOF

L 70-74

−8.5

CIT

L 75-77

−13.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+18.5

SAM

W 78-73

−0.5

UTC

W 75-70

−2.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+1.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−13.5

MER

L 64-69

−1.5

VMI

W 90-72

+6.5

ETSU

L 69-78

−10.5

WOF

W 76-67

+7.5

CIT

W 72-51

+5.5

WCU

L 67-86

−20.5

SAM

W 86-81

+6.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+0.5

ETSU

W 76-61

+16.5

CONN

L 71-82

+9.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

+14.5

TROY

L 61-64

−27.5

UNI

L 54-70

−17.5

QUC

W 90-79

+15.5

RICH

W 73-72

−2.5

ILST

L 65-72

−8.5

ELON

W 97-88

+31.5

HARV

W 79-69

+6.5

MAN

W 75-68

−11.5

CHSO

W 84-76

+4.5

MER

W 74-72

−8.5

WCU

L 77-80

−0.5

UTC

W 78-67

−1.5

VMI

W 69-48

−32.5

SAM

W 77-73

+0.5

WOF

L 70-74

−5.5

CIT

L 75-77

+9.5

UNCG

W 89-66

+4.5

SAM

W 78-73

+1.5

UTC

W 75-70

−1.5

ETSU

L 71-75

+4.5

UNCG

L 64-67

−18.5

MER

L 64-69

−18.5

VMI

W 90-72

+13.5

ETSU

L 69-78

+6.5

WOF

W 76-67

−10.5

CIT

W 72-51

−20.5

WCU

L 67-86

+5.5

SAM

W 86-81

+19.5

UNCG

W 81-75

+8.5

ETSU

W 76-61

−2.5

CONN

L 71-82

+19.5

over 16under 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bethune

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W L W W L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W W L W L L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O U U U O U U O O O O U U U O U O U O O U U O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AUB	L 90-95	+24.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	@MIA	L 61-101	+16.5	L −23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 15	@DAY	L 82-91	+21.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@OHIO	W 76-73	+6.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsJAX	L 64-69	-3.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsSTBK	L 54-61	-4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 29	@IU	L 56-100	+29.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 5	vsSCST	W 80-59	-13.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 14	@MIZ	L 60-82	+20.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 142
Dec 17	@SLU	L 53-112	+26.5	L −32.5	157.5	O 165
Dec 22	@ARIZ	L 71-107	+39.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 178
Dec 29	@OKST	L 77-103	+20.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsFAMU	W 87-83	-7.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsGRAM	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsSOU	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 150
Jan 17	@MVSU	W 79-63	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Jan 19	@UAPB	W 87-82	-2.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsJKST	W 85-48	-8.5	W +28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	vsALCN	W 82-73	-13.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	@ALST	W 69-54	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 123
Feb 2	@AAMU	W 80-62	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	vsPV	W 82-76	-10.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 158
Feb 9	vsTXSO	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	@ALCN	L 55-57	-8.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	@JKST	L 86-91	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 19	vsALST	W 82-71	-5.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsAAMU	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 26	@GRAM	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 147
Feb 28	@SOU	W 82-79	+2.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 161
Mar 5	@FAMU	L 77-81	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsPV	L 67-71	-5.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+19.5

MIA

L 61-101

−23.5

DAY

L 82-91

+12.5

OHIO

W 76-73

+9.5

JAX

L 64-69

−8.5

STBK

L 54-61

−11.5

L 56-100

−14.5

SCST

W 80-59

+7.5

MIZ

L 60-82

−1.5

SLU

L 53-112

−32.5

ARIZ

L 71-107

+3.5

OKST

L 77-103

−5.5

FAMU

W 87-83

−3.5

GRAM

W 74-65

+5.5

SOU

L 73-77

−7.5

MVSU

W 79-63

−0.5

UAPB

W 87-82

+2.5

JKST

W 85-48

+28.5

ALCN

W 82-73

−4.5

ALST

W 69-54

+13.5

AAMU

W 80-62

+15.5

W 82-76

−4.5

TXSO

W 79-69

+2.5

ALCN

L 55-57

−10.5

JKST

L 86-91

−9.5

ALST

W 82-71

+5.5

AAMU

W 85-76

+2.5

GRAM

W 76-71

+6.5

SOU

W 82-79

+5.5

FAMU

L 77-81

−6.5

L 67-71

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+31.5

MIA

L 61-101

+7.5

DAY

L 82-91

+24.5

OHIO

W 76-73

−8.5

JAX

L 64-69

−10.5

STBK

L 54-61

−30.5

L 56-100

+7.5

SCST

W 80-59

−9.5

MIZ

L 60-82

−4.5

SLU

L 53-112

+7.5

ARIZ

L 71-107

+23.5

OKST

L 77-103

+15.5

FAMU

W 87-83

+24.5

GRAM

W 74-65

−5.5

SOU

L 73-77

−1.5

MVSU

W 79-63

−2.5

UAPB

W 87-82

+13.5

JKST

W 85-48

−23.5

ALCN

W 82-73

+7.5

ALST

W 69-54

−29.5

AAMU

W 80-62

+0.5

W 82-76

+0.5

TXSO

W 79-69

−4.5

ALCN

L 55-57

−32.5

JKST

L 86-91

+26.5

ALST

W 82-71

+5.5

AAMU

W 85-76

+18.5

GRAM

W 76-71

+2.5

SOU

W 82-79

+7.5

FAMU

L 77-81

+12.5

L 67-71

−9.5

over 18under 13avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Furman 1, Bethune 1, even 3

FurmanBetterBethune

G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76

FURBig

G K. Branch TR11.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 24

G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

BCUSmall

G J. Morris TR11.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 49

G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

Even

G J. Jones TR9.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43

F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59

Even

F Q. Heady10.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55

F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66

Even

F D. Johnson TR10 pts · 5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52

FurmanBetterBethune

FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1

Even

BCU defense218th of 366 · -5.7

FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2

Even

BCU offense188th of 366 · -5.8

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

FURSmall

Backcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

FURSmall

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

Bench-2.5 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestFUR betterBCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Furman

Guards

J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew

Forwards

M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew

Bethune

Guards

K. Branch30 min · TRJ. Morris30 min · TRJ. Jones28 min · TRM. Jordan13 min · TRK. Patton8 min · TRK. MurphyNew

Forwards

Q. Heady26 minD. Johnson26 min · TRD. Perez-Rouzan24 minV. Boskovic21 min · TRI. Ezuma8 min · TRJ. SmithNew

Centers

M. Martinez16 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FUR74.9 #164

BCU74.5 #175

Points per possession

FUR1.11 #114

BCU1.04 #273

Pace (possessions)

FUR67.2 #273

BCU71.8 #43

Shooting

Effective FG%

FUR54.8 #43

BCU51.0 #195

3-point %

FUR33.4 #204

BCU33.0 #230

3-point attempt rate

FUR46.5 #40

BCU29.7 #353

Free throw rate

FUR32.7 #246

BCU40.9 #48

Possessions

Turnover rate

FUR17.8 #260

BCU19.2 #329

Offensive rebound rate

FUR30.5 #180

BCU30.1 #194

Assists per game

FUR14.9 #91

BCU13.3 #195

Defense

Points allowed

FUR72.5 #116

BCU77.5 #251

Points allowed per possession

FUR1.08 #163

BCU1.08 #157

Opponent effective FG%

FUR50.2 #112

BCU49.7 #88

Opponent 3-point %

FUR32.3 #75

BCU32.9 #112

Turnovers forced

FUR13.7 #342

BCU15.8 #229

Defensive rebound rate

FUR71.8 #72

BCU68.3 #242

Steals per game

FUR4.4 #357

BCU6.8 #147

Blocks per game

FUR3.3 #183

BCU4.5 #34

FUR		BCU
Scoring
74.9 #164	Points per game	74.5 #175
1.11 #114	Points per possession	1.04 #273
67.2 #273	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #43
Shooting
54.8 #43	Effective FG%	51.0 #195
33.4 #204	3-point %	33.0 #230
46.5 #40	3-point attempt rate	29.7 #353
32.7 #246	Free throw rate	40.9 #48
Possessions
17.8 #260	Turnover rate	19.2 #329
30.5 #180	Offensive rebound rate	30.1 #194
14.9 #91	Assists per game	13.3 #195
Defense
72.5 #116	Points allowed	77.5 #251
1.08 #163	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #157
50.2 #112	Opponent effective FG%	49.7 #88
32.3 #75	Opponent 3-point %	32.9 #112
13.7 #342	Turnovers forced	15.8 #229
71.8 #72	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #242
4.4 #357	Steals per game	6.8 #147
3.3 #183	Blocks per game	4.5 #34

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn71–82
Wvs ETSU76–61
Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
Wvs Samford86–81
L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.

Bethune

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View67–71
L@ Florida A&M77–81
W@ Southern82–79
W@ Grambling76–71
Wvs Alabama A&M85–76

A week or more of rest.