Chace Athletic Center · at Bryant
#260SIESiena
@
#290BRYBryant
LineSIE -2.5moved 5 toward SIE
Total150.5up 6 from 144.5
Season records: Siena and Bryant
SIEThis seasonBRY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIE 71–69 · win probability SIE 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SIE -2.5
moved 5 toward SIE
Total
150.5
model 139.7 · Under by 11
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

SIE 6, BRY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SIEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIE 15.8%, BRY 20.2%. Forced: SIE 17.0%, BRY 14.6%
SIEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5; BRY 46.9 and allows 52.7
SIEBig
Three-pointers
SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%; BRY hits 30.0% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 32.2% and 47.9% of their shots
SIEBig
BRY offense vs SIE defense
Offense 306th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings
SIESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIE 31.8%, BRY 27.7%. Defensive: SIE 70.5%, BRY 69.0%
SIESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIE 33.4, BRY 29.4. Allowed: SIE 27.5, BRY 33.5
Context
Schedule so far
SIE has played the 320th-hardest schedule, BRY the 261st. A record against a soft schedule means less
BRYSmall
SIE offense vs BRY defense
Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 254th, on the model’s ratings
BRYSmall
Home court
BRY at home. This season: BRY 0-0 at home, SIE 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: SIE plays 64.4 a game (354th fastest), BRY 65.2 (338th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIE 28%, BRY 29%. Transfers in: SIE 1, BRY 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Road favorites of under 3141254%50%50%
Non-conference games at this spread109454%49%50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
5 pts toward SIE
Total
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
SIE -146 · BRY +119
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened BRY -2.5 · now SIE -3.5 · moved 6 toward SIEmodel SIE -2
Opened 144.5 · now 150.5 · moved 6 upmodel 139.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 150.5TotalUnder 150.5
Bets
Money
SIEWinnerBRY
Bets
Money
Money is 25 pts ahead of bets on SIE

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
SIEBRYOverUnderSIEBRY
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+3.5-105-3.5-115150.5-110150.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+2.5-107-2.5-120151.5-109151.5-117-150+117
BovadaBovada+3.5-105-3.5-115150.5-110150.5-110——
DraftKingsDK+2.5-118-2.5-102150.5-110150.5-110-142+120
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+3.5-101-3.5-111150.5-108150.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSIE -2.5SIE -2.1BRY +0.4
Total150.5139.7Under 10.8
Projected score—SIE 70.9 · BRY 68.8

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadSIE -1.4—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreSIE 33.4 · BRY 32—

Bryant has the better starters

Position by position: Siena 0, Bryant 1, even 4
SienaBetterBryant
G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30
Even
G T. Tabales9 pts · 2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 20
G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17
No call
G F. Vassalluzzo0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
BRYSmall
F A. Pasha TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 39
G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Harvey10.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 64
G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Chatfield TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
SienaBetterBryant
SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6
BRYSmall
BRY defense254th of 366 · -6.6
SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7
SIESmall
BRY offense306th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players
BRYBig
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSIE betterBRY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Siena
Guards
T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew
Bryant
Guards
T. Tabales28 minF. Vassalluzzo1 minJ. Sepe1 minM. DeOrsey1 minR. WoernerNew
Forwards
A. Pasha33 min · TRK. Harvey27 minE. Chatfield13 min · TRO. Nnani1 min · TRD. ThompsonNewC. LyonsNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIEBRY
Scoring
70.4 #276Points per game63.0 #358
1.09 #154Points per possession0.96 #351
64.4 #354Pace (possessions)65.2 #338
Shooting
50.4 #222Effective FG%46.9 #340
30.6 #3303-point %30.0 #343
32.2 #3273-point attempt rate47.9 #25
33.4 #226Free throw rate29.4 #322
Possessions
15.8 #126Turnover rate20.2 #351
31.8 #133Offensive rebound rate27.7 #276
13.5 #182Assists per game11.4 #314
Defense
65.8 #12Points allowed73.3 #138
1.02 #44Points allowed per possession1.13 #283
48.5 #48Opponent effective FG%52.7 #257
32.4 #82Opponent 3-point %36.3 #320
17.0 #154Turnovers forced14.6 #313
70.5 #133Defensive rebound rate69.0 #203
5.8 #262Steals per game5.9 #250
3.1 #205Blocks per game3.9 #88

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke65–71
  • Wvs Merrimack64–54
  • Wvs Fairfield76–61
  • Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
  • Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

Bryant

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Vermont57–77
  • L@ New Hampshire83–88
  • Wvs NJIT69–52
  • L@ UMBC58–70
  • Lvs Binghamton67–79

A week or more of rest.