1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. AMCC @ TXST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Texas State Bobcats

Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
#238AMCCTexas A&M-CC
@
#103TXSTTexas St
LineTXST -10.5moved 1 toward TXST
Total142.5down 1 from 143.5
AMCCThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 77–66 · win probability TXST 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
TXST -10.5
moved 1 toward TXST
Total
142.5
model 143.0 · Over by 0.5
Model edge
TXST by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

AMCC 2, TXST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AMCCBig
Three-pointers
AMCC hits 35.0% and allows 31.6%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 31.4% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTBig
AMCC offense vs TXST defense
Offense 303rd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: AMCC 19%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: AMCC 4, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TXSTSmall
TXST offense vs AMCC defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 176th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
AMCC has played the 245th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TXSTSmall
Home court
TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, AMCC 0-0 away
AMCCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: AMCC 41.1, TXST 34.0. Allowed: AMCC 46.3, TXST 39.0
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: AMCC 31.7%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: AMCC 71.2%, TXST 71.6%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: AMCC 49.5 and allows 50.1; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: AMCC plays 66.9 a game (284th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: AMCC 19.4%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: AMCC 19.0%, TXST 18.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5192888%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread98888%50%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5357072%50%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward TXST
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
AMCC +338 · TXST -460
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened TXST -9.5 · now TXST -10.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TXST -11.5
Opened 143.5 · now 142.5 · moved 1 downmodel 143
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
AMCCWinnerTXST
Bets
Money
Money leans AMCC · 51 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
AMCCTXSTOverUnderAMCCTXST
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-10.5-110+10.5-110142.5-110142.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-8.5-105+8.5-121144.5-106144.5-121+335-480
BovadaBovada-10.5-110+10.5-110142.5-110142.5-110——
DraftKingsDK-10.5-110+10.5-110142.5-110142.5-110+340-440
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-10.5-106+10.5-106142.5-108142.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadTXST -10.5TXST -11.7TXST +1.2
Total142.5143.0Over 0.5
Projected score—AMCC 65.7 · TXST 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -6.8—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreAMCC 30.1 · TXST 36.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas A&M-CC 0, Texas St 4, even 1
Texas A&M-CCBetterTexas St
G J. Mizell TR5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
TXSTBig
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G S. Robinson TR14.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 76
Even
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G I. Lewis TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 10
TXSTBig
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
G D. Michelini-Jackson4.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 34
TXSTBig
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
F B. Basil TR8.7 pts · 6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 53
TXSTBig
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Texas A&M-CCBetterTexas St
AMCC offense303rd of 366 · -9.4
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
AMCC defense176th of 366 · -4.0
TXSTSmall
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
TXSTBig
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestAMCC betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas A&M-CC
Guards
J. Mizell28 min · TRS. Robinson28 min · TRI. Lewis22 min · TRD. Michelini-Jackson17 minB. Wheatfall11 minC. Horton6 min
Forwards
B. Basil23 min · TRD. MukunaNewK. WallaceNewC. WorshamNew
Centers
J. Ambrose5 minL. FoonNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
AMCCTXST
Scoring
68.5 #305Points per game71.9 #247
1.03 #296Points per possession1.06 #230
66.9 #284Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
49.5 #270Effective FG%50.0 #238
35.0 #1223-point %32.2 #271
31.4 #3343-point attempt rate24.6 #364
41.1 #46Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
19.4 #336Turnover rate18.7 #309
31.7 #138Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
12.1 #280Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
69.4 #52Points allowed72.5 #117
1.04 #67Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
50.1 #104Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
31.6 #48Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
19.0 #48Turnovers forced18.5 #75
71.2 #95Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
7.0 #125Steals per game7.9 #41
2.6 #290Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas A&M-CC

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-10 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin58–60
  • Wvs LSU N Orleans74–61
  • Wvs East Texas A&M84–71
  • Wvs N'Western St71–59
  • W@ SE Louisiana73–68

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.