Western Illinois Leathernecks at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

LineVAL -18.5no move

Total142.5no move

Season records: W Illinois and Valparaiso
WIU	This season	VAL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAL 83–60 · win probability VAL 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

VAL -18.5

no move since the open

Total

142.5

model 142.5

Model edge

VAL by 4.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

97% WIU

96% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

WIU 0, VAL 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, VAL the 143rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

VALBig

WIU offense vs VAL defense

Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings

VALBig

Three-pointers

WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 33.3% and 36.8% of their shots

VALBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, VAL 32.5%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, VAL 69.9%

VALBig

VAL offense vs WIU defense

Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings

VALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, VAL 15.7%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, VAL 16.9%

VALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5

VALSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, VAL 51%. Transfers in: WIU 0, VAL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

VALSmall

Home court

VAL at home. This season: VAL 0-0 at home, WIU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, VAL 39.1. Allowed: WIU 34.8, VAL 35.1

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), VAL 67.4 (258th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.5	993	94%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	632	93%	49%	53%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenVAL -18.5

no move

NowVAL -18.5

No change since the open

Total

Open142.5

no move

Now142.5

No change since the open

Moneyline

WIU +1250 · VAL -3300

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened VAL -18.5 · now VAL -19 · moved 0.5 toward VALmodel VAL -23

model VAL -23

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

WIU +18.5Spread

VAL -18.5

Bets

97%

Money

96%

Over 142.5TotalUnder 142.5

Bets

20%80%

Money

20%80%

WIUWinner

VAL

Bets

98%

Money

98%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WIU	VAL	Over	Under	WIU	VAL
BetMGMMGM	-19.5-115	+19.5-105	142.5-115	142.5-105	+1300	-3000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-19-105	+19-115	142-105	142-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-18.5-117	+18.5-109	143.5-107	143.5-120	+1200	-10000
BetUSBetUS	-19-105	+19-115	142-105	142-115	—	—
BovadaBovada	-18.5-105	+18.5-115	142-110	142-110	+1100	-2800
DraftKingsDK	-18.5-108	+18.5-112	142.5-105	142.5-115	+1500	-3600
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-19-101	+19-111	142-103	142-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	VAL -18.5	VAL -23.2	VAL +4.7
Total	142.5	142.5	—
Projected score	—	WIU 59.7 · VAL 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -13.7	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	WIU 26.5 · VAL 40.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU LLLLL	11-17	39%	8-8	11-17
VAL WWLLL	19-13	59%	11-5	6-6

Venue/role: WIU away, as underdog; VAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU UOUUO	13-15	46%	2-26
VAL UUOUO	17-15	53%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
VAL	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs HCU	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs CSUB	L58–74LU
Nov 16	@ MINN	No recent meeting

Valparaiso

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ PUR	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ SDST	L50–61LU
Nov 21	vs TROY	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIU 0–1 VALVAL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2023-24	WIU 66 @ VAL 73	VAL -2.5	VAL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

2-26

7% wins

Against the spread

11-17

39% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-267%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1739%

W W L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U U O O O U O U U U O U U O U O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 13	@UND	W 69-66	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	@LIN	L 76-92	+12.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 22	vsSIUE	L 61-66	+6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UTM	L 60-67	+13.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	@SEMO	L 50-73	+13.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	vsTNST	L 68-90	+6.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsTNTC	L 54-59	+3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 13	@EIU	L 55-57	+6.5	W +4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 17	@LR	L 79-86	+10.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@MORE	L 66-71	+8.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Jan 23	@USI	L 64-96	+6.5	L −25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsSEMO	L 74-78	+10.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	vsUTM	L 44-84	+10.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 5	@TNTC	L 72-97	+9.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	@TNST	L 56-83	+15.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 10	vsEIU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 12	vsLR	L 58-77	+7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 19	vsUSI	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	vsMORE	L 59-81	+8.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@SIUE	L 47-67	+13.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsLIN	L 69-91	+11.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

UND

W 69-66

+10.5

LIN

L 76-92

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-66

+1.5

UTM

L 60-67

+6.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−9.5

TNST

L 68-90

−15.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−1.5

EIU

L 55-57

+4.5

L 79-86

+3.5

L 66-71

+3.5

USI

L 64-96

−25.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+6.5

UTM

L 44-84

−29.5

TNTC

L 72-97

−15.5

TNST

L 56-83

−11.5

EIU

W 79-70

+13.5

L 58-77

−11.5

USI

L 70-77

−3.5

L 59-81

−13.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−6.5

LIN

L 69-91

−10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 17avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

UND

W 69-66

−10.5

LIN

L 76-92

+21.5

SIUE

L 61-66

−11.5

UTM

L 60-67

−13.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−24.5

TNST

L 68-90

+12.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−30.5

EIU

L 55-57

−20.5

L 79-86

+29.5

L 66-71

−1.5

USI

L 64-96

+23.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+9.5

UTM

L 44-84

−9.5

TNTC

L 72-97

+25.5

TNST

L 56-83

−12.5

EIU

W 79-70

+15.5

L 58-77

−6.5

USI

L 70-77

+6.5

L 59-81

−3.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−21.5

LIN

L 69-91

+10.5

over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W W W L W W W L L L W W W L W W W W W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U O U U O U U O O O O U U U O O O U U O O U U O O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@CLE	W 90-75	+2.5	W +17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 26	vsUSI	L 56-64	-9.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 29	vsWMU	W 84-55	-4.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 2	@MARQ	L 72-75	+17.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsUNCW	L 70-73	+4.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 16	@NU	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMUR	L 79-85	+5.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 164
Dec 29	@UNI	L 48-58	+8.5	L −1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	@SIU	L 70-75	+7.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUIC	W 66-59	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 125
Jan 7	vsILST	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MUR	L 79-92	+12.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 171
Jan 13	@BEL	L 74-78	+11.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 152
Jan 17	vsUNI	W 54-44	+1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	vsSIU	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	vsBEL	L 77-78	+5.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 31	@INST	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@BRAD	L 65-72	+7.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 6	vsEVAN	W 70-63	-8.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	@DRKE	W 81-76	+3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ILST	L 64-86	+8.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsINST	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsBRAD	W 79-72	+2.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 21	@UIC	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	138.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsDRKE	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 28	@EVAN	L 79-80	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsINST	W 63-62	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsBRAD	L 84-90	+5.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

CLE

W 90-75

+17.5

USI

L 56-64

−17.5

WMU

W 84-55

+24.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+14.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+1.5

L 70-86

−1.5

MUR

L 79-85

−0.5

UNI

L 48-58

−1.5

SIU

L 70-75

+2.5

UIC

W 66-59

+4.5

ILST

W 77-71

+12.5

MUR

L 79-92

−0.5

BEL

L 74-78

+7.5

UNI

W 54-44

+11.5

SIU

W 69-63

+4.5

BEL

L 77-78

+4.5

INST

W 76-72

+6.5

BRAD

L 65-72

+0.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−1.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+8.5

ILST

L 64-86

−13.5

INST

W 76-75

−3.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+9.5

UIC

W 71-67

+11.5

DRKE

W 74-71

+0.5

EVAN

L 79-80

−6.5

INST

W 63-62

−1.5

BRAD

L 84-90

−0.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

CLE

W 90-75

+6.5

USI

L 56-64

−30.5

WMU

W 84-55

−7.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+0.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+6.5

L 70-86

+10.5

MUR

L 79-85

+8.5

UNI

L 48-58

−25.5

SIU

L 70-75

−0.5

UIC

W 66-59

−19.5

ILST

W 77-71

+9.5

MUR

L 79-92

+18.5

BEL

L 74-78

+5.5

UNI

W 54-44

−32.5

SIU

W 69-63

−10.5

BEL

L 77-78

+9.5

INST

W 76-72

+2.5

BRAD

L 65-72

−7.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−3.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+12.5

ILST

L 64-86

+11.5

INST

W 76-75

+5.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+8.5

UIC

W 71-67

−0.5

DRKE

W 74-71

−1.5

EVAN

L 79-80

+21.5

INST

W 63-62

−15.5

BRAD

L 84-90

+34.5

over 17under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Valparaiso has the better starters

Position by position: W Illinois 0, Valparaiso 2, even 3

W IllinoisBetterValparaiso

G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9

VALBig

G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62

F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

VALSmall

G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34

F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65

F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70

F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

W IllinoisBetterValparaiso

WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6

VALBig

VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9

WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6

VALBig

VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1

Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player

VALSmall

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players

VALSmall

Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWIU betterVAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Illinois

Guards

M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew

Forwards

D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew

Valparaiso

Guards

R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min

Forwards

J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew

Centers

K. Yu8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIU63.2 #357

VAL71.2 #263

Points per possession

WIU0.94 #359

VAL1.06 #233

Pace (possessions)

WIU67.6 #246

VAL67.4 #258

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIU44.5 #361

VAL47.6 #322

3-point %

WIU30.9 #322

VAL33.9 #180

3-point attempt rate

WIU33.3 #311

VAL36.8 #234

Free throw rate

WIU37.7 #108

VAL39.1 #79

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIU17.5 #239

VAL15.7 #116

Offensive rebound rate

WIU27.0 #293

VAL32.5 #110

Assists per game

WIU8.1 #365

VAL11.7 #307

Defense

Points allowed

WIU78.5 #281

VAL71.9 #103

Points allowed per possession

WIU1.16 #334

VAL1.06 #116

Opponent effective FG%

WIU54.2 #303

VAL50.5 #130

Opponent 3-point %

WIU35.6 #288

VAL32.1 #70

Turnovers forced

WIU14.9 #300

VAL16.9 #161

Defensive rebound rate

WIU65.2 #334

VAL69.9 #167

Steals per game

WIU5.1 #331

VAL5.9 #245

Blocks per game

WIU2.0 #346

VAL3.6 #124

WIU		VAL
Scoring
63.2 #357	Points per game	71.2 #263
0.94 #359	Points per possession	1.06 #233
67.6 #246	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #258
Shooting
44.5 #361	Effective FG%	47.6 #322
30.9 #322	3-point %	33.9 #180
33.3 #311	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #234
37.7 #108	Free throw rate	39.1 #79
Possessions
17.5 #239	Turnover rate	15.7 #116
27.0 #293	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #110
8.1 #365	Assists per game	11.7 #307
Defense
78.5 #281	Points allowed	71.9 #103
1.16 #334	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #116
54.2 #303	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #130
35.6 #288	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #70
14.9 #300	Turnovers forced	16.9 #161
65.2 #334	Defensive rebound rate	69.9 #167
5.1 #331	Steals per game	5.9 #245
2.0 #346	Blocks per game	3.6 #124

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
L@ SIUE47–67
Lvs Morehead St59–81
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bradley84–90
Wvs Indiana St63–62
L@ Evansville79–80
Wvs Drake74–71
W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.