Lindenwood Lions at TCU Horned Frogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETSchollmaier Arena · at TCU

#40TCUTCU

LineTCU -28.5no move

Total154.5up 1 from 153.5

Season records: Lindenwood Lions and TCU
LIN	This season	TCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 87–63 · win probability TCU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

TCU -28.5

no move since the open

Total

154.5

model 149.6 · Under by 5

Model edge

LIN by 4

model vs market

Public on the spread

95% LIN

92% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

LIN 0, TCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LIN has played the 357th-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TCUBig

LIN offense vs TCU defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

TCUBig

TCU offense vs LIN defense

Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

TCUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIN 18.7%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: LIN 18.4%, TCU 19.5%

TCUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIN 0%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: LIN 0, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIN 38.6, TCU 37.5. Allowed: LIN 37.4, TCU 30.4

TCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIN 33.3%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: LIN 68.3%, TCU 70.9%

TCUSmall

Home court

TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, LIN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: LIN plays 73.0 a game (18th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 36.8% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTCU -28.5

no move

NowTCU -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open153.5

▲ 1

Now154.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

LIN +3400 · TCU -15000

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened TCU -28.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -24.5

model TCU -24.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

LIN +28.5Spread

TCU -28.5

Bets

95%

Money

92%8%

Over 154.5TotalUnder 154.5

Bets

16%84%

Money

15%85%

LINWinner

TCU

Bets

98%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LIN	TCU	Over	Under	LIN	TCU
BetMGMMGM	-28.5-110	+28.5-110	154.5-110	154.5-110	+3300	-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-28-105	+28-115	155-110	155-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-28.5-118	+28.5-108	154.5-112	154.5-114	—	—
BetUSBetUS	-28-105	+28-115	155-110	155-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-28.5-110	+28.5-110	154.5-110	154.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-28.5-115	+28.5-105	154.5-108	154.5-112	+3500	-20000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-28-101	+28-111	155-108	155-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	TCU -28.5	TCU -24.3	LIN +4.2
Total	154.5	149.6	Under 4.9
Projected score	—	LIN 62.7 · TCU 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TCU -14.3	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	LIN 27.8 · TCU 42.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	6-10	4-7
TCU WLLWL	19-16	54%	9-10	10-12

Venue/role: LIN away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15
TCU UOOUU	15-20	43%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TCU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lindenwood Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ NEB	L52–84LU
Nov 13	@ OMA	W72–70WU
Nov 17	@ UNI	No recent meeting

TCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs SOU	W108–75WO
Nov 10	vs ULM	W95–60WO
Nov 13	vs MILW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

TCU

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L L L L W W L L W W W L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L W W W W L W L L L W W W L W L L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O O U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U O U O O U O U O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNOLA	L 74-78	-21.5	L −25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 6	vsSFPA	W 104-63	-27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 10	vsLAM	W 78-65	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 14	vsMICH	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 130
Nov 19	vsKC	W 81-45	-23.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 27	vsFLA	W 84-80	+11.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsWIS	W 74-63	+5.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 137
Dec 5	vsND	L 85-87	-6.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 7	@UNT	W 65-55	-9.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 15	vsUIW	W 69-65	-19.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsORU	W 72-53	-23.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 125
Dec 21	vsFAMU	W 80-56	-29.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 29	vsJKST	W 115-64	-30.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBAY	W 69-63	-2.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 132
Jan 6	@KU	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 204
Jan 10	vsARIZ	L 73-86	+7.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 159
Jan 14	@BYU	L 70-76	+13.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 146
Jan 17	@UTAH	L 79-82	-4.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 20	vsOKST	W 68-65	-8.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 133
Jan 24	@BAY	W 97-90	+4.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 187
Jan 28	vsHOU	L 70-79	+8.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 1	@COLO	L 61-87	-1.5	L −27.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsKSU	W 84-82	-9.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 10	vsISU	W 62-55	+7.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 117
Feb 14	@OKST	W 95-92	-1.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 187
Feb 17	@UCF	L 71-82	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsWVU	W 60-54	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	vsASU	W 90-78	-6.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 28	@KSU	W 77-68	-3.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	@TTU	W 73-65	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 138
Mar 7	vsCIN	W 73-63	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 136
Mar 11	vsOKST	W 95-88	-7.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 183
Mar 12	vsKU	L 73-78	+4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 151
Mar 19	vsOSU	W 66-64	+2.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Mar 21	vsDUKE	L 58-81	+12.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

−25.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−5.5

MICH

L 63-67

+3.5

W 81-45

+12.5

FLA

W 84-80

+15.5

WIS

W 74-63

+16.5

L 85-87

−8.5

UNT

W 65-55

+0.5

UIW

W 69-65

−15.5

ORU

W 72-53

−4.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−5.5

JKST

W 115-64

+20.5

BAY

W 69-63

+3.5

L 100-104

+2.5

ARIZ

L 73-86

−5.5

BYU

L 70-76

+7.5

UTAH

L 79-82

−7.5

OKST

W 68-65

−5.5

BAY

W 97-90

+11.5

HOU

L 70-79

−0.5

COLO

L 61-87

−27.5

KSU

W 84-82

−7.5

ISU

W 62-55

+14.5

OKST

W 95-92

+1.5

UCF

L 71-82

−12.5

WVU

W 60-54

+1.5

ASU

W 90-78

+5.5

KSU

W 77-68

+5.5

TTU

W 73-65

+16.5

CIN

W 73-63

+7.5

OKST

W 95-88

−0.5

L 73-78

−0.5

OSU

W 66-64

+4.5

DUKE

L 58-81

−10.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

+2.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−4.5

MICH

L 63-67

−34.5

W 81-45

−24.5

FLA

W 84-80

+8.5

WIS

W 74-63

−20.5

L 85-87

+30.5

UNT

W 65-55

−15.5

UIW

W 69-65

−9.5

ORU

W 72-53

−22.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−6.5

JKST

W 115-64

+35.5

BAY

W 69-63

−22.5

L 100-104

+60.5

ARIZ

L 73-86

+1.5

BYU

L 70-76

−16.5

UTAH

L 79-82

+6.5

OKST

W 68-65

−28.5

BAY

W 97-90

+39.5

HOU

L 70-79

+9.5

COLO

L 61-87

−5.5

KSU

W 84-82

+10.5

ISU

W 62-55

−30.5

OKST

W 95-92

+30.5

UCF

L 71-82

−1.5

WVU

W 60-54

−19.5

ASU

W 90-78

+18.5

KSU

W 77-68

−14.5

TTU

W 73-65

−9.5

CIN

W 73-63

−4.5

OKST

W 95-88

+24.5

L 73-78

+4.5

OSU

W 66-64

−15.5

DUKE

L 58-81

−1.5

over 15under 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIN74.4 #183

TCU77.4 #109

Points per possession

LIN1.02 #307

TCU1.10 #127

Pace (possessions)

LIN73.0 #18

TCU70.2 #108

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIN48.0 #313

TCU50.4 #221

3-point %

LIN29.4 #347

TCU33.2 #220

3-point attempt rate

LIN30.7 #346

TCU36.8 #233

Free throw rate

LIN38.6 #88

TCU37.5 #112

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIN18.7 #307

TCU15.3 #90

Offensive rebound rate

LIN33.3 #83

TCU34.0 #67

Assists per game

LIN13.0 #212

TCU15.4 #71

Defense

Points allowed

LIN75.0 #190

TCU72.1 #107

Points allowed per possession

LIN1.03 #52

TCU1.02 #50

Opponent effective FG%

LIN49.1 #72

TCU51.2 #172

Opponent 3-point %

LIN32.4 #84

TCU33.5 #158

Turnovers forced

LIN18.4 #78

TCU19.5 #33

Defensive rebound rate

LIN68.3 #244

TCU70.9 #112

Steals per game

LIN8.4 #24

TCU7.7 #61

Blocks per game

LIN4.4 #46

TCU4.5 #39

LIN		TCU
Scoring
74.4 #183	Points per game	77.4 #109
1.02 #307	Points per possession	1.10 #127
73.0 #18	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #108
Shooting
48.0 #313	Effective FG%	50.4 #221
29.4 #347	3-point %	33.2 #220
30.7 #346	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #233
38.6 #88	Free throw rate	37.5 #112
Possessions
18.7 #307	Turnover rate	15.3 #90
33.3 #83	Offensive rebound rate	34.0 #67
13.0 #212	Assists per game	15.4 #71
Defense
75.0 #190	Points allowed	72.1 #107
1.03 #52	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #50
49.1 #72	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #172
32.4 #84	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #158
18.4 #78	Turnovers forced	19.5 #33
68.3 #244	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #112
8.4 #24	Steals per game	7.7 #61
4.4 #46	Blocks per game	4.5 #39

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke58–81
Wvs Ohio State66–64
Lvs Kansas73–78
Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.