UT Martin Skyhawks at Tulane Green Wave: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETAvron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · at Tulane

LineTULN -7.5moved 2 toward UTM

Total144.5no move

Season records: UT Martin and Tulane
UTM	This season	TULN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TULN 79–65 · win probability TULN 89%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

TULN -7.5

moved 2 toward UTM

Total

144.5

model 143.2 · Under by 1.5

Model edge

TULN by 6.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TULN has more of the edges

UTM 3, TULN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

UTM has played the 364th-hardest schedule, TULN the 115th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTM 37.0%, TULN 22.8%. Defensive: UTM 68.0%, TULN 64.2%

TULNBig

UTM offense vs TULN defense

Offense 352nd of 366 against a defense 180th, on the model’s ratings

TULNBig

TULN offense vs UTM defense

Offense 114th of 366 against a defense 276th, on the model’s ratings

UTMSmall

Three-pointers

UTM hits 30.4% and allows 30.2%; TULN hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 47.1% and 45.0% of their shots

TULNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTM 21.4%, TULN 15.4%. Forced: UTM 20.0%, TULN 17.1%

UTMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTM 48.7 and allows 46.1; TULN 49.4 and allows 50.7

TULNSmall

Home court

TULN at home. This season: TULN 0-0 at home, UTM 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UTM plays 66.2 a game (303rd fastest), TULN 68.5 (205th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTM 20%, TULN 40%. Transfers in: UTM 1, TULN 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTM 37.4, TULN 43.5. Allowed: UTM 35.8, TULN 38.1

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 7 to 9.5	1806	78%	49%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	832	79%	51%	51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog	4513	74%	51%	50%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTULN -9.5

2 → UTM

NowTULN -7.5

2 pts toward UTM

Total

Open144.5

no move

Now144.5

No change since the open

Moneyline

UTM +275 · TULN -355

Line movement

Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened TULN -9.5 · now TULN -7.5 · moved 2 toward UTMmodel TULN -14

model TULN -14

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 144.5TotalUnder 144.5

Bets

32%68%

Money

32%68%

UTMWinner

TULN

Bets

99%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UTM	TULN	Over	Under	UTM	TULN
BetMGMMGM	-7.5-115	+7.5-105	144.5-110	144.5-110	+240	-300
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-7-115	+7-105	144.5-110	144.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-8.5-120	+8.5-107	144.5-113	144.5-113	+300	-420
BetUSBetUS	-7-115	+7-105	144.5-110	144.5-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-7.5-115	+7.5-105	144-110	144-110	+300	-400
DraftKingsDK	-7.5-118	+7.5-102	144.5-110	144.5-110	+250	-310
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-7-111	+7-101	144.5-108	144.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	TULN -7.5	TULN -14.2	TULN +6.7
Total	144.5	143.2	Under 1.3
Projected score	—	UTM 64.5 · TULN 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -8.3	—
1H total	67.0	—
1H projected score	UTM 29.4 · TULN 37.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTM LWLLL	15-15	50%	10-4	4-4
TULN LLWWL	15-17	47%	7-10	7-6

Venue/role: UTM away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTM UUUOU	9-21	30%	19-11
TULN UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTM	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TULN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UT Martin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ IUIN	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ ARST	L64–70LU
Nov 20	vs SIU	L54–83LU

Tulane

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs JKST	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs NICH	W82–72WO
Nov 14	@ AKR	L71–88LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Martin

30 games played

Straight up

19-11

63% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1163%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W W W W L W W W W L L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W W W L L W W L L W L L W W L W L W W L W L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2130%

O O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U U O U U U U O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UNLV	W 86-81	+16.5	W +21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 12	@BRAD	W 78-67	+15.5	W +26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 18	@FSU	L 73-87	+19.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 160
Nov 22	vsPV	W 69-68	-10.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 23	vsUSM	L 60-70	-1.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 2	vsCHSO	W 73-56	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 129
Dec 7	vsALST	W 74-64	-6.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 10	@SIU	L 54-83	+8.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 18	@TNST	L 71-78	+2.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	@TNTC	W 86-62	-2.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 148
Jan 1	vsWIU	W 67-60	-13.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsEIU	W 65-61	-10.5	L −6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	@MORE	W 76-68	-2.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 144
Jan 10	@USI	W 73-56	-5.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	vsSIUE	W 65-59	-7.5	L −1.5	131.5	U 124
Jan 17	vsLIN	W 69-55	-2.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 20	@SEMO	L 50-66	+2.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 29	@EIU	W 76-68	-3.5	W +4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	@WIU	W 84-44	-10.5	W +29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsLR	W 55-52	-6.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsUSI	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	vsMORE	L 55-61	-8.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 116
Feb 12	@LIN	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	@SIUE	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 157
Feb 17	vsSEMO	L 53-56	-2.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 19	@LR	L 65-67	-2.5	L −4.5	136.5	U 132
Feb 26	vsTNTC	W 64-49	-7.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 113
Feb 28	vsTNST	L 42-67	-2.5	L −27.5	143.5	U 109
Mar 5	vsEIU	W 66-63	-7.5	L −4.5	126.5	O 129
Mar 6	vsTNST	L 55-68	+1.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+21.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+26.5

FSU

L 73-87

+5.5

W 69-68

−9.5

USM

L 60-70

−11.5

CHSO

W 73-56

+13.5

ALST

W 74-64

+3.5

SIU

L 54-83

−20.5

TNST

L 71-78

−4.5

TNTC

W 86-62

+21.5

WIU

W 67-60

−6.5

EIU

W 65-61

−6.5

W 76-68

+5.5

USI

W 73-56

+11.5

SIUE

W 65-59

−1.5

LIN

W 69-55

+11.5

SEMO

L 50-66

−13.5

EIU

W 76-68

+4.5

WIU

W 84-44

+29.5

W 55-52

−3.5

USI

W 76-54

+11.5

L 55-61

−14.5

LIN

L 74-75

+0.5

SIUE

W 81-76

+3.5

SEMO

L 53-56

−5.5

L 65-67

−4.5

TNTC

W 64-49

+7.5

TNST

L 42-67

−27.5

EIU

W 66-63

−4.5

TNST

L 55-68

−11.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+20.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+0.5

FSU

L 73-87

−5.5

W 69-68

−18.5

USM

L 60-70

−16.5

CHSO

W 73-56

−18.5

ALST

W 74-64

−6.5

SIU

L 54-83

−9.5

TNST

L 71-78

+7.5

TNTC

W 86-62

+2.5

WIU

W 67-60

−13.5

EIU

W 65-61

−7.5

W 76-68

+8.5

USI

W 73-56

−8.5

SIUE

W 65-59

−7.5

LIN

W 69-55

−23.5

SEMO

L 50-66

−24.5

EIU

W 76-68

+14.5

WIU

W 84-44

−9.5

W 55-52

−32.5

USI

W 76-54

−2.5

L 55-61

−20.5

LIN

L 74-75

+3.5

SIUE

W 81-76

+27.5

SEMO

L 53-56

−29.5

L 65-67

−4.5

TNTC

W 64-49

−21.5

TNST

L 42-67

−34.5

EIU

W 66-63

+2.5

TNST

L 55-68

−14.5

over 9under 21avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulane

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W W W L L W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1941%

O O U U O O O U U O U U O U U U U U U O O U U U O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 6	vsAKR	L 71-88	+6.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsUCSD	L 67-93	+5.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLT	W 61-53	-4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 20	vsPRST	W 63-61	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 31	@ECU	W 79-70	-1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 4	vsFAU	W 69-66	+3.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 10	@UTSA	W 85-52	-7.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsUAB	L 69-82	+1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 18	vsUNT	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	@FAU	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 23	@CLT	L 70-73	+2.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsUSF	L 83-97	+8.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 1	@MEM	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 8	vsWICH	L 61-75	+5.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsTEM	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 143
Feb 15	@UAB	W 55-54	+6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 109
Feb 19	@UNT	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsRICE	W 81-75	-4.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsTLSA	L 56-90	+5.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 1	@USF	L 62-90	+15.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@TEM	L 60-89	+4.5	L −24.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 8	vsMEM	L 95-96	+2.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsMEM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 12	vsCLT	L 60-74	+1.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

AKR

L 71-88

−10.5

UCSD

L 67-93

−20.5

W 61-53

+3.5

PRST

W 63-61

−0.5

ECU

W 79-70

+7.5

FAU

W 69-66

+6.5

UTSA

W 85-52

+25.5

UAB

L 69-82

−11.5

UNT

L 63-71

−9.5

FAU

L 74-79

+5.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

−5.5

MEM

W 78-76

+10.5

WICH

L 61-75

−8.5

TEM

W 77-66

+9.5

UAB

W 55-54

+7.5

UNT

W 77-71

+12.5

RICE

W 81-75

+1.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−28.5

USF

L 62-90

−12.5

TEM

L 60-89

−24.5

MEM

L 95-96

+1.5

MEM

W 81-69

+16.5

CLT

L 60-74

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

AKR

L 71-88

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-93

+10.5

W 61-53

−26.5

PRST

W 63-61

−21.5

ECU

W 79-70

+3.5

FAU

W 69-66

−23.5

UTSA

W 85-52

−10.5

UAB

L 69-82

−2.5

UNT

L 63-71

−3.5

FAU

L 74-79

−2.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

+21.5

MEM

W 78-76

+2.5

WICH

L 61-75

−12.5

TEM

W 77-66

−1.5

UAB

W 55-54

−43.5

UNT

W 77-71

+10.5

RICE

W 81-75

+8.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−10.5

USF

L 62-90

−3.5

TEM

L 60-89

+4.5

MEM

L 95-96

+36.5

MEM

W 81-69

−1.5

CLT

L 60-74

−10.5

over 13under 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulane has the better starters

Position by position: UT Martin 0, Tulane 2, even 3

UT MartinBetterTulane

G F. Petkovski5.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 5

TULNBig

G K. Lewis TR18.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.1 ast Score 65

G D. Remagen TR1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Nadeau TR13.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

G E. Moya NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F T. Ringgold9.6 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 57

F V. Khryapa2.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 5

TULNSmall

F C. Schwieger10.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 32

F G. Sulaberidze NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Chappelle TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

UT MartinBetterTulane

UTM offense352nd of 366 · -13.0

TULNBig

TULN defense180th of 366 · -4.1

UTM defense276th of 366 · -7.0

TULNBig

TULN offense114th of 366 · -2.4

Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players

TULNBig

Backcourt+1.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTM betterTULN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UT Martin

Guards

F. Petkovski27 minD. Remagen11 min · TRE. MoyaNewR. ConleyNewS. SavkovNewN. StuknysNew

Forwards

V. Khryapa14 minG. SulaberidzeNewA. BanceviciusNewO. SambeNewG. BubnysNewA. VilkasNew

Tulane

Guards

K. Lewis36 min · TRT. Nadeau27 min · TRK. Greene15 minJ. Moore12 minR. Moore2 minR. BlountNew

Forwards

T. Ringgold25 minC. Schwieger25 minJ. Chappelle24 min · TRJ. Dumont2 min · TRL. Cronin2 min

Centers

D. SalaneNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTM67.8 #319

TULN72.0 #239

Points per possession

UTM1.03 #294

TULN1.05 #245

Pace (possessions)

UTM66.2 #303

TULN68.5 #205

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTM48.7 #297

TULN49.4 #275

3-point %

UTM30.4 #337

TULN32.0 #279

3-point attempt rate

UTM47.1 #32

TULN45.0 #68

Free throw rate

UTM37.4 #118

TULN43.5 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTM21.4 #358

TULN15.4 #99

Offensive rebound rate

UTM37.0 #17

TULN22.8 #352

Assists per game

UTM12.9 #222

TULN12.6 #244

Defense

Points allowed

UTM64.7 #5

TULN75.7 #208

Points allowed per possession

UTM0.98 #11

TULN1.11 #229

Opponent effective FG%

UTM46.1 #11

TULN50.7 #140

Opponent 3-point %

UTM30.2 #9

TULN34.5 #216

Turnovers forced

UTM20.0 #24

TULN17.1 #139

Defensive rebound rate

UTM68.0 #259

TULN64.2 #352

Steals per game

UTM8.3 #27

TULN7.5 #85

Blocks per game

UTM4.1 #65

TULN4.5 #38

UTM		TULN
Scoring
67.8 #319	Points per game	72.0 #239
1.03 #294	Points per possession	1.05 #245
66.2 #303	Pace (possessions)	68.5 #205
Shooting
48.7 #297	Effective FG%	49.4 #275
30.4 #337	3-point %	32.0 #279
47.1 #32	3-point attempt rate	45.0 #68
37.4 #118	Free throw rate	43.5 #14
Possessions
21.4 #358	Turnover rate	15.4 #99
37.0 #17	Offensive rebound rate	22.8 #352
12.9 #222	Assists per game	12.6 #244
Defense
64.7 #5	Points allowed	75.7 #208
0.98 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #229
46.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #140
30.2 #9	Opponent 3-point %	34.5 #216
20.0 #24	Turnovers forced	17.1 #139
68.0 #259	Defensive rebound rate	64.2 #352
8.3 #27	Steals per game	7.5 #85
4.1 #65	Blocks per game	4.5 #38

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Martin

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee St55–68
Wvs E Illinois66–63
Lvs Tennessee St42–67
Wvs Tennessee Tech64–49
L@ Little Rock65–67

A week or more of rest.

Tulane

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Charlotte60–74
Wvs Memphis81–69
Lvs Memphis95–96
L@ Temple60–89
L@ South Florida62–90

A week or more of rest.