1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. SOU @ SMU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Southern Jaguars at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#309SOUSouthern
@
#55SMUSMU
LineSMU -25.5moved 1 toward SOU
Total157.5up 2 from 155.5
SOUThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 90–63 · win probability SMU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SMU -25.5
moved 1 toward SOU
Total
157.5
model 153.6 · Under by 4
Model edge
SMU by 1.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
94% SOU
92% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

SOU 0, SMU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
SMU offense vs SOU defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
SOU offense vs SMU defense
Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SOU has played the 270th-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
SMUBig
Three-pointers
SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 32.0% and 35.9% of their shots
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, SMU 68.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: SOU 8, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, SMU 16.8%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, SMU 30.4. Allowed: SOU 42.9, SMU 32.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward SOU
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
SOU +3000 · SMU -10000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SMU -26.5 · now SMU -25.5 · moved 1 toward SOUmodel SMU -27
Opened 155.5 · now 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 153.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
SOU +25.5SpreadSMU -25.5
Bets
Money
SOUWinnerSMU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
SOUSMUOverUnderSOUSMU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-25.5-105+25.5-115157.5-115157.5-105——
BetRiversBetRivers-25.5-108+25.5-118155.5-113155.5-113——
BovadaBovada-25.5-105+25.5-115157.5-115157.5-105——
DraftKingsDK-25.5-108+25.5-112157.5-112157.5-108+3000-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-25.5-101+25.5-111157.5-113157.5-103——
Prices from The Odds API, updated Nov 1, 8:00 PM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSMU -25.5SMU -26.8SMU +1.3
Total157.5153.6Under 3.9
Projected score—SOU 63.4 · SMU 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -15.8—
1H total71.8—
1H projected scoreSOU 28 · SMU 43.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, SMU 5, even 0
SouthernBetterSMU
G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42
SMUBig
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14
SMUBig
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
SMUBig
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42
SMUSmall
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
SMUBig
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
SouthernBetterSMU
SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2
SMUBig
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0
SMUBig
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
SMUSmall
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
Bench-3.3 · 4 players
SMUBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSOU betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern
Guards
J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew
Forwards
R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew
Centers
I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SOUSMU
Scoring
76.2 #136Points per game84.1 #19
1.06 #239Points per possession1.19 #26
72.3 #28Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
49.1 #287Effective FG%55.6 #27
34.8 #1293-point %37.1 #27
32.0 #3293-point attempt rate35.9 #252
39.8 #61Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
16.6 #169Turnover rate15.8 #119
31.4 #144Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
13.9 #156Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
80.2 #324Points allowed77.9 #265
1.11 #236Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
53.2 #274Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
36.7 #339Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
18.6 #67Turnovers forced16.8 #171
68.7 #217Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
8.3 #26Steals per game7.0 #129
3.8 #97Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View66–72
  • Wvs Florida A&M73–70
  • Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
  • W@ Alabama A&M88–85
  • W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.