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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

UMBC @ Army

Christl Arena · at Army
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#288ARMYArmy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonARMY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARMY 75–74 · win probability ARMY 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

UMBC 5, ARMY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMBCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1
UMBCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, ARMY 26.8. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, ARMY 39.6
UMBCBig
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 38.8% and 53.3% of their shots
ARMYSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, ARMY 65%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, ARMY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UMBCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, ARMY 17.2%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, ARMY 15.4%
ARMYSmall
Home court
ARMY at home. This season: ARMY 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
UMBCSmall
UMBC offense vs ARMY defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, ARMY 29.6%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, ARMY 72.3%
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, ARMY the 302nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), ARMY 68.6 (200th). Faster games mean more points
Even
ARMY offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARMY -0.6—
Total—148.5—
Projected score—UMBC 74 · ARMY 74.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARMY -0.2—
1H total69.5—
1H projected scoreUMBC 34.6 · ARMY 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UMBC 0, Army 0, even 5
UMBCBetterArmy
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
Even
G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
Even
G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
Even
F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
UMBCBetterArmy
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
Even
ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
Even
ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
UMBCSmall
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterARMY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
Army
Guards
R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew
Forwards
J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew
Centers
P. HendersonNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCARMY
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game70.8 #268
1.13 #85Points per possession1.03 #281
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)68.6 #200
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%49.3 #279
36.1 #553-point %32.0 #278
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate53.3 #3
34.1 #205Free throw rate26.8 #352
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate17.2 #221
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate29.6 #219
11.9 #291Assists per game14.5 #118
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed79.0 #298
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.15 #321
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%55.1 #334
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %35.5 #285
15.1 #283Turnovers forced15.4 #257
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate72.3 #54
4.9 #338Steals per game5.4 #307
2.4 #314Blocks per game1.6 #359
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Bucknell55–65
  • L@ Lafayette77–83
  • Lvs Bucknell73–75
  • Lvs Navy63–81
  • W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.