Carver Arena · at Bradley · NIT
Closing line
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 11.5
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 11.5Closing total141.5Over by 4.5
| DAY | This season | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23-11 | Record | 20-12 |
| 15-19 | ATS | 14-18 |
| 11-23 | O/U | 18-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DAY 75–72 BRAD · ✓ DAY (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 47 | 33 | 80 |
| BRAD | 30 | 36 | 66 |
1st half: DAY 47, BRAD 30 (DAY by 17). The model had DAY by 1.7 and a total of 68.5 (actual 77).
Team stats
| DAY | BRAD | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-48 52% | Field goals | 23-51 45% |
| 9-18 50% | 3-pointers | 10-22 45% |
| 21-25 84% | Free throws | 10-14 71% |
| 25 3 off | Rebounds | 31 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 13 |
| 5 | Steals | 0 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 35 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 8-13 | 5-10 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 32 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 32 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Keonte Jones G | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Derkack G | 27 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Conner F | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Heard G | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Damon Friery F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Jaron McKie, Adam Njie
| BRAD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Huibregtse G | 31 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 7-15 | 5-10 |
| AJ Smith F | 29 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jaquan Johnson G | 25 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-3 |
| Ahmet Jonovic C | 24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Corey Thomas F | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Montana Wheeler G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Timoty van der Knaap G | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Kai Yu C | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Dietrich Richardson G | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Matthew Zobrist G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Gus Rugaard G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Demarion Burch, Jackson Seastrunk, Handy Toussaint III, Gustavo Guimares
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDAY -2.5
ModelDAY -2.6
Model edgeDAY +0.1
W DAY covered
Total
Market141.5
Model146.5
Model edgeOver 5.0
W Over
Projected score
DAY 74.6 · BRAD 71.9
DAY 80 · BRAD 66
Win probability
DAY 59%
1st half
Spread
DAY -1.7
DAY -17.0
Total
68.5
77 points
Projected score
DAY 35.1 · BRAD 33.4
DAY 47 · BRAD 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -1.5
1 → DAY
CloseDAY -2.5
1 pt toward DAY
Total
Open140.5
▲ 1
Close141.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DAY -155 · BRAD +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -1.5 · closed DAY -2.5 · moved 1 toward DAYmodel DAY -2.5 matches the line
model DAY -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 140.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 1-9 10% |
| BRAD | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Dayton
34 games played
Straight up
23-11
68% wins
Against the spread
15-19
44% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-23
32% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs FOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @ LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vs GW | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 13 | @ DUQ | W 71-65 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 16 | vsLUC | W 78-51 | -16.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @ LAS | L 64-67 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ JOES | L 74-81 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 139.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 27 | vs URI | L 76-81 | -9.5 | L −14.5 | 138.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 30 | @ SLU | L 71-102 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 3 | vs SBU | W 72-70 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 6 | @ VCU | L 73-99 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 15 | vs DAV | W 70-59 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 18 | @ GMU | W 82-67 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsDUQ | W 78-66 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 24 | vsSLU | W 77-62 | +3.5 | W +18.5 | 157.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 27 | @GW | W 68-66 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 3 | @ RICH | W 65-60 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 6 | vsVCU | L 62-68 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 13 | vsSBU | W 68-63 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 14 | vsSLU | W 70-69 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 15 | vsVCU | L 62-70 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
+4.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
+3.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
+10.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−12.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
−13.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
−14.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
−21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−5.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
−17.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
+5.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+17.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
+5.5
24
vsSLU
SLUW 77-62
+18.5
27
@GW
GWW 68-66
+4.5
3
@RICH
RICHW 65-60
−0.5
6
vsVCU
VCUL 62-68
−7.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 68-63
−0.5
14
vsSLU
SLUW 70-69
+5.5
15
vsVCU
VCUL 62-70
−4.5
covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
−3.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
−16.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
−12.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−6.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
+15.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
+18.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
+21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−2.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
+24.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
−11.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+11.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
−4.5
24
vsSLU
SLUW 77-62
−18.5
27
@GW
GWW 68-66
−18.5
3
@RICH
RICHW 65-60
−19.5
6
vsVCU
VCUL 62-68
−16.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 68-63
−10.5
14
vsSLU
SLUW 70-69
−6.5
15
vsVCU
VCUL 62-70
−7.5
over 11under 23avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bradley
32 games played
Straight up
20-12
63% wins
Against the spread
14-18
44% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-14
56% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsSBU | L 63-69 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs CMU | W 85-54 | -9.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTM | L 67-78 | -15.5 | L −26.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ SF | L 64-75 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 19 | vs UML | W 87-77 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs PRIN | W 88-64 | -9.5 | W +14.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCSD | L 77-87 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vsLIB | W 74-64 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 2 | vs WSU | W 64-60 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs NIU | W 84-55 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 18 | @ INST | W 108-99 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
| Dec 21 | vs SIU | W 73-69 | -6.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 29 | vs EVAN | W 76-68 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 1 | @ BEL | L 78-88 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | @ MUR | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 162.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs DRKE | W 93-66 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 10 | vs UNI | W 75-69 | -4.5 | W +1.5 | 131.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 13 | @EVAN | W 94-90 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 17 | @ ILST | L 62-88 | +5.5 | L −20.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vsINST | W 75-68 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 24 | vs UIC | L 70-85 | -7.5 | L −22.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | @DRKE | W 87-73 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 3 | vs VAL | W 72-65 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 6 | @UNI | L 49-61 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 134.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 9 | vsBEL | W 95-84 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 15 | @SIU | W 70-60 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 18 | @VAL | L 72-79 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 142.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 21 | vsILST | W 74-60 | -3.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 24 | @UIC | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 1 | vsMUR | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 165 |
| Mar 6 | vsVAL | W 90-84 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 174 |
| Mar 7 | vsUNI | L 69-73 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 127.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSBU
SBUL 63-69
−4.5
8
vsCMU
CMUW 85-54
+21.5
12
vsUTM
UTML 67-78
−26.5
15
@SF
SFL 64-75
−1.5
19
vsUML
UMLW 87-77
−11.5
24
vsPRIN
PRINW 88-64
+14.5
25
vsUCSD
UCSDL 77-87
−11.5
26
vsLIB
LIBW 74-64
+14.5
2
vsWSU
WSUW 64-60
−1.5
6
vsNIU
NIUW 84-55
+10.5
18
@INST
INSTW 108-99
+3.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 73-69
−2.5
29
vsEVAN
EVANW 76-68
−3.5
1
@BEL
BELL 78-88
−6.5
4
@MUR
MURL 66-86
−14.5
7
vsDRKE
DRKEW 93-66
+20.5
10
vsUNI
UNIW 75-69
+1.5
13
@EVAN
EVANW 94-90
−3.5
17
@ILST
ILSTL 62-88
−20.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 75-68
−1.5
24
vsUIC
UICL 70-85
−22.5
31
@DRKE
DRKEW 87-73
+11.5
3
vsVAL
VALW 72-65
−0.5
6
@UNI
UNIL 49-61
−8.5
9
vsBEL
BELW 95-84
+12.5
15
@SIU
SIUW 70-60
+12.5
18
@VAL
VALL 72-79
−9.5
21
vsILST
ILSTW 74-60
+10.5
24
@UIC
UICL 86-93
−5.5
1
vsMUR
MURW 87-78
+5.5
6
vsVAL
VALW 90-84
+0.5
7
vsUNI
UNIL 69-73
+0.5
covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSBU
SBUL 63-69
−7.5
8
vsCMU
CMUW 85-54
−8.5
12
vsUTM
UTML 67-78
+0.5
15
@SF
SFL 64-75
−7.5
19
vsUML
UMLW 87-77
+14.5
24
vsPRIN
PRINW 88-64
+10.5
25
vsUCSD
UCSDL 77-87
+18.5
26
vsLIB
LIBW 74-64
−6.5
2
vsWSU
WSUW 64-60
−24.5
6
vsNIU
NIUW 84-55
−7.5
18
@INST
INSTW 108-99
+56.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 73-69
−10.5
29
vsEVAN
EVANW 76-68
−0.5
1
@BEL
BELL 78-88
+12.5
4
@MUR
MURL 66-86
−10.5
7
vsDRKE
DRKEW 93-66
+14.5
10
vsUNI
UNIW 75-69
+12.5
13
@EVAN
EVANW 94-90
+41.5
17
@ILST
ILSTL 62-88
+2.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 75-68
−12.5
24
vsUIC
UICL 70-85
+10.5
31
@DRKE
DRKEW 87-73
+9.5
3
vsVAL
VALW 72-65
−7.5
6
@UNI
UNIL 49-61
−24.5
9
vsBEL
BELW 95-84
+26.5
15
@SIU
SIUW 70-60
−16.5
18
@VAL
VALL 72-79
+8.5
21
vsILST
ILSTW 74-60
−11.5
24
@UIC
UICL 86-93
+37.5
1
vsMUR
MURW 87-78
+7.5
6
vsVAL
VALW 90-84
+34.5
7
vsUNI
UNIL 69-73
+14.5
over 18under 14avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Dayton
23-11 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs VCU62–70
- Wvs Saint Louis70–69
- Wvs St Bonaventure68–63
- Lvs VCU62–68
- W@ Richmond65–60
3 days since their last game.
Bradley
20-12 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
- Wvs Valparaiso90–84
- Wvs Murray St87–78
- L@ UIC86–93
- Wvs Illinois St74–60
A week or more of rest.