Paycom Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
NEB -13.5✓ NEB covered by 15.5
NEB -13.5✓ NEB covered by 15.5Closing total139.5Under by 16.5
 TROY | This season | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| 20-11 | Record | 26-6 |
| 18-13 | ATS | 17-15 |
| 14-17 | O/U | 10-22 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 64–81 NEB · ✓ NEB (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 25 | 22 | 47 |
| NEB | 41 | 35 | 76 |
1st half: TROY 25, NEB 41 (NEB by 16). The model had NEB by 9.9 and a total of 68.0 (actual 66).
Team stats
| TROY | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 13-46 28% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 8-28 29% | 3-pointers | 14-39 36% |
| 13-14 93% | Free throws | 6-6 100% |
| 33 9 off | Rebounds | 37 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 20 |
| 5 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 35 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1-11 | 0-6 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 34 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Victor Valdes F | 26 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Theo Seng F | 22 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Austin Cross G | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-5 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Corbin Green F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Evan Griffin F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Emmanuel Clarton G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kameryn Mitchell G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Javen Colbert G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Hikaru Awata
| NEB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce Sandfort F | 38 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7-13 | 7-12 |
| Sam Hoiberg G | 32 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Rienk Mast F | 30 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 5-12 | 0-3 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel C | 27 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Jamarques Lawrence G | 24 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braden Frager F | 26 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 5-15 | 2-10 |
| Cale Jacobsen G | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jared Garcia F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kendall Blue G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Justin Bolis F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Leo Curtis F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ugnius Jarusevicius, Connor Essegian, Henry Burt, Will Cooper, Quentin Rhymes
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNEB -13.5
ModelNEB -16.8
Model edgeNEB +3.3
W NEB covered
Total
Market139.5
Model145.4
Model edgeOver 5.9
L Under
Projected score
TROY 64.3 · NEB 81.1
TROY 47 · NEB 76
Win probability
NEB 93%
1st half
Spread
NEB -9.9
NEB -16.0
Total
68.0
66 points
Projected score
TROY 29.1 · NEB 39
TROY 25 · NEB 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -15.5
2 → TROY
CloseNEB -13.5
2 pts toward TROY
Total
Open134.5
▲ 5
Close139.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
TROY +650 · NEB -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -15.5 · closed NEB -13.5 · moved 2 toward TROYmodel NEB -17
model NEB -17
Opened 134.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 5 upmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| NEB | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
31 games played
Straight up
20-11
65% wins
Against the spread
18-13
58% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs TXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs USA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @ UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | vs USM | W 91-65 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | vsARST | W 99-74 | -3.5 | W +21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 21 | @ ODU | W 83-77 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ GASO | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 29 | vs JMU | L 64-73 | -9.5 | L −18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | vs APP | L 44-66 | -7.5 | L −29.5 | 137.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 4 | @ GAST | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 7 | vs AKR | W 79-69 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 11 | @TXST | L 62-74 | -5.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | @USM | L 65-69 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 18 | @ ULM | W 77-76 | -17.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 21 | @USA | L 54-65 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 24 | vsUL | W 78-59 | -11.5 | W +7.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 27 | vsULM | W 80-65 | -18.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 8 | vsUSM | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Mar 9 | vsGASO | W 77-61 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+17.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+21.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+0.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+0.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−18.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−29.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
+4.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
+12.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−17.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−9.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−16.5
21
@USA
USAL 54-65
−13.5
24
vsUL
ULW 78-59
+7.5
27
vsULM
ULMW 80-65
−3.5
8
vsUSM
USMW 78-70
+2.5
9
vsGASO
GASOW 77-61
+10.5
covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+10.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+7.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+7.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+1.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−10.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−27.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
−7.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
−9.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−4.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−10.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−0.5
21
@USA
USAL 54-65
−23.5
24
vsUL
ULW 78-59
+2.5
27
vsULM
ULMW 80-65
−8.5
8
vsUSM
USMW 78-70
+5.5
9
vsGASO
GASOW 77-61
−14.5
over 14under 17avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nebraska
32 games played
Straight up
26-6
81% wins
Against the spread
17-15
53% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-22
31% overs · avg −7.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsWGA | W 86-53 | -24.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 8 | vs FIU | W 96-66 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMES | W 69-50 | -35.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | vs OU | W 105-99 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs UNM | W 84-72 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs KSU | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs WIN | W 80-73 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 166.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs UPST | W 72-63 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | vs CREI | W 71-50 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 10 | vs WIS | W 90-60 | -1.5 | W +28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ ILL | W 83-80 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs UND | W 78-55 | -29.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 30 | vs UNH | W 86-55 | -31.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 2 | vs MSU | W 58-56 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | @ OSU | W 72-69 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @ IU | W 83-77 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ORE | W 90-55 | -10.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | @ NU | W 77-58 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | vs WASH | W 76-66 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @ MINN | W 76-57 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 27 | @ MICH | L 72-75 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 1 | vsILL | L 69-78 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ RUTG | W 80-68 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 10 | vs PUR | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | vsNU | W 68-49 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 17 | @ IOWA | L 52-57 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 109 |
| Feb 21 | vs PSU | W 87-64 | -17.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 25 | vs MD | W 74-61 | -16.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | @USC | W 82-67 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Mar 3 | @ UCLA | L 52-72 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 8 | vsIOWA | W 84-75 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 136.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 13 | vsPUR | L 58-74 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
+8.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+8.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−16.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+4.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
−0.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−7.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−16.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
+15.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
+28.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+12.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−6.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−0.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−0.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
+5.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+10.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
+24.5
17
@NU
NUW 77-58
+14.5
21
vsWASH
WASHW 76-66
−0.5
24
@MINN
MINNW 76-57
+14.5
27
@MICH
MICHL 72-75
+8.5
1
vsILL
ILLL 69-78
−10.5
7
@RUTG
RUTGW 80-68
−0.5
10
vsPUR
PURL 77-80
−5.5
14
vsNU
NUW 68-49
+5.5
17
@IOWA
IOWAL 52-57
−3.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 87-64
+5.5
25
vsMD
MDW 74-61
−3.5
28
@USC
USCW 82-67
+9.5
3
@UCLA
UCLAL 52-72
−18.5
8
vsIOWA
IOWAW 84-75
+4.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 58-74
−11.5
covered 17didn’t cover 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
−14.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+5.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−27.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+40.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+4.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
+2.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−13.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−22.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
−34.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
−8.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+6.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−18.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−5.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−32.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
−14.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+9.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
−1.5
17
@NU
NUW 77-58
−14.5
21
vsWASH
WASHW 76-66
−10.5
24
@MINN
MINNW 76-57
−7.5
27
@MICH
MICHL 72-75
−10.5
1
vsILL
ILLL 69-78
−7.5
7
@RUTG
RUTGW 80-68
+2.5
10
vsPUR
PURL 77-80
+10.5
14
vsNU
NUW 68-49
−29.5
17
@IOWA
IOWAL 52-57
−30.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 87-64
+3.5
25
vsMD
MDW 74-61
−7.5
28
@USC
USCW 82-67
−0.5
3
@UCLA
UCLAL 52-72
−20.5
8
vsIOWA
IOWAW 84-75
+22.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 58-74
−13.5
over 10under 22avg −7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
20-11 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs GA Southern77–61
- Wvs Southern Miss78–70
- Wvs UL Monroe80–65
- Wvs Louisiana78–59
- L@ South Alabama54–65
A week or more of rest.
Nebraska
26-6 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Purdue58–74
- Wvs Iowa84–75
- L@ UCLA52–72
- W@ USC82–67
- Wvs Maryland74–61
6 days since their last game.