Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
TROY -5.5✓ TROY covered by 2.5
TROY -5.5✓ TROY covered by 2.5Closing total142.5Over by 5.5
 USM | This season | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| 17-15 | Record | 18-11 |
| 17-15 | ATS | 16-13 |
| 19-13 | O/U | 13-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 74–78 TROY · ✓ TROY (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 28 | 42 | 70 |
| TROY | 41 | 37 | 78 |
1st half: USM 28, TROY 41 (TROY by 13). The model had TROY by 2.1 and a total of 70.7 (actual 69).
Team stats
| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-69 41% | Field goals | 22-50 44% |
| 2-19 11% | 3-pointers | 3-17 18% |
| 12-20 60% | Free throws | 31-38 82% |
| 38 19 off | Rebounds | 39 13 off |
| 13 | Assists | 12 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylik Weeks F | 37 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-18 | 2-5 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 36 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 12-16 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 33 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Djahi Binet F | 31 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-9 | 0-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chiante' Tramble G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Curt Lewis G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Tegra Izay C | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 39 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 36 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 9-14 | 0-1 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 35 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Victor Valdes F | 25 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kerrington Kiel F | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Austin Cross G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Evan Griffin F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Emmanuel Clarton, Javen Colbert, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Hikaru Awata, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green, Theo Seng
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTROY -5.5
ModelTROY -3.8
Model edgeUSM +1.7
L TROY covered
Total
Market142.5
Model151.2
Model edgeOver 8.7
W Over
Projected score
USM 73.7 · TROY 77.5
USM 70 · TROY 78
Win probability
TROY 63%
1st half
Spread
TROY -2.1
TROY -13.0
Total
70.7
69 points
Projected score
USM 34.3 · TROY 36.4
USM 28 · TROY 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -3.5
2 → TROY
CloseTROY -5.5
2 pts toward TROY
Total
Open143.5
▼ 1
Close142.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +210 · TROY -258
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -3.5 · closed TROY -5.5 · moved 2 toward TROYmodel TROY -4
model TROY -4
Opened 143.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 downmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 7-3 70% | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% |
| TROY | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 1-9 10% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
USM 4–4 TROYSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · USM 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2025-26 | TROY 65 @ USM 69 | USM +5.5 | USM W |
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | USM 65 @ TROY 91 | TROY -8.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | TROY 70 @ USM 58 | USM +9.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | USM 61 @ TROY 70 | TROY -11.5 | USM W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | TROY 63 @ USM 64 | USM +1.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
32 games played
Straight up
17-15
53% wins
Against the spread
17-15
53% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-13
59% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vs APP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vs JMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs KENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vs USA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsTROY | W 69-65 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | vs ODU | W 86-81 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 24 | @ARST | L 84-89 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 27 | @USA | W 68-55 | +4.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 5 | vsJMU | W 86-80 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 166 |
| Mar 6 | vsTXST | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Mar 7 | vsAPP | W 86-73 | +4.5 | W +17.5 | 137.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
+9.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+0.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+4.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
+17.5
5
vsJMU
JMUW 86-80
+8.5
6
vsTXST
TXSTW 81-77
+5.5
7
vsAPP
APPW 86-73
+17.5
covered 17didn’t cover 15avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
−10.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+19.5
24
@ARST
ARSTL 84-89
+14.5
27
@USA
USAW 68-55
−18.5
5
vsJMU
JMUW 86-80
+22.5
6
vsTXST
TXSTW 81-77
+17.5
7
vsAPP
APPW 86-73
+21.5
over 19under 13avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Troy
29 games played
Straight up
18-11
62% wins
Against the spread
16-13
55% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-16
45% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vsMRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vsTXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vsUSA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | vsUSM | W 91-65 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | vsARST | W 99-74 | -3.5 | W +21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 21 | @ODU | W 83-77 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ GASO | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 29 | vsJMU | L 64-73 | -9.5 | L −18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | vsAPP | L 44-66 | -7.5 | L −29.5 | 137.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 4 | @GAST | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 7 | vs AKR | W 79-69 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 11 | @TXST | L 62-74 | -5.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | @USM | L 65-69 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 18 | @ULM | W 77-76 | -17.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 21 | @USA | L 54-65 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 24 | vsUL | W 78-59 | -11.5 | W +7.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 27 | vsULM | W 80-65 | -18.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+17.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+21.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+0.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+0.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−18.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−29.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
+4.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
+12.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−17.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−9.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−16.5
21
@USA
USAL 54-65
−13.5
24
vsUL
ULW 78-59
+7.5
27
vsULM
ULMW 80-65
−3.5
covered 16didn’t cover 13avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+10.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+7.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+7.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+1.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−10.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−27.5
4
@GAST
GASTW 74-63
−7.5
7
vsAKR
AKRW 79-69
−9.5
11
@TXST
TXSTL 62-74
−4.5
14
@USM
USML 65-69
−10.5
18
@ULM
ULMW 77-76
−0.5
21
@USA
USAL 54-65
−23.5
24
vsUL
ULW 78-59
+2.5
27
vsULM
ULMW 80-65
−8.5
over 13under 16avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
17-15 overall · 12-9 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs App State86–73
- Wvs Texas St81–77
- Wvs James Madison86–80
- W@ South Alabama68–55
- L@ Arkansas St84–89
1 day since their last game.
Troy
18-11 overall · 12-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UL Monroe80–65
- Wvs Louisiana78–59
- L@ South Alabama54–65
- W@ UL Monroe77–76
- L@ Southern Miss65–69
A week or more of rest.