Bridgestone Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
AUB -8.5✓ AUB covered by 9.5
AUB -8.5✓ AUB covered by 9.5Closing total160.5Under by 20.5
 MSST | This season | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| 13-18 | Record | 16-15 |
| 10-21 | ATS | 13-18 |
| 16-15 | O/U | 19-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 78–87 AUB · ✓ AUB (78%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 33 | 28 | 61 |
| AUB | 30 | 49 | 79 |
1st half: MSST 33, AUB 30 (MSST by 3). The model had AUB by 5.2 and a total of 76.6 (actual 63).
Team stats
| MSST | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-64 39% | Field goals | 27-65 42% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 11-30 37% |
| 5-15 33% | Free throws | 14-22 64% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 43 11 off |
| 9 | Assists | 15 |
| 3 | Steals | 10 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 39 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 8-25 | 2-8 |
| Jayden Epps G | 33 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-16 | 2-9 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 33 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Achor Achor F | 22 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 20 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 24 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Amier Ali, Brandon Walker, Gai Chol, King Grace, Dellquan Warren
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Overton G | 36 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 8-19 | 6-12 |
| Keyshawn Hall F | 35 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 29 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 29 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 5-16 | 2-8 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 21 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 6-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 24 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Filip Jovic C | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Joah Shay, Kaden Magwood, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, Drake Cardwell, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp, CJ Williams
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -8.5
ModelAUB -9.0
Model edgeAUB +0.5
W AUB covered
Total
Market160.5
Model164.0
Model edgeOver 3.5
L Under
Projected score
MSST 77.5 · AUB 86.5
MSST 61 · AUB 79
Win probability
AUB 78%
1st half
Spread
AUB -5.2
MSST -3.0
Total
76.6
63 points
Projected score
MSST 35.7 · AUB 40.9
MSST 33 · AUB 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -7.5
1 → AUB
CloseAUB -8.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open160.5
no move
Close160.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MSST +285 · AUB -360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -7.5 · closed AUB -8.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -9
model AUB -9
Opened 160.5 · unchangedmodel 164
model 164
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| AUB | 2-8 20% | 1-9 10% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
MSST 2–5 AUBAUB leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MSST 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2025-26 | AUB 85 @ MSST 91 | MSST +5.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | MSST 66 @ AUB 88 | AUB -7.5 | AUB W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | MSST 66 vs AUB 73 | AUB -7.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | MSST 63 @ AUB 78 | AUB -10.5 | AUB W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | AUB 58 @ MSST 64 | MSST +2.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
31 games played
Straight up
13-18
42% wins
Against the spread
10-21
32% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-15
52% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs MISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vs ARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vs TENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @MISS | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 18 | vsAUB | W 91-85 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | @ SC | L 89-97 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 186 |
| Feb 25 | @ALA | L 75-100 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 176.5 | U 175 |
| Feb 28 | vsMIZ | L 64-88 | +1.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 3 | @ FLA | L 74-108 | +20.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Mar 7 | vs UGA | L 96-102 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 198 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+15.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+11.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
−9.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−12.5
28
vsMIZ
MIZL 64-88
−22.5
3
@FLA
FLAL 74-108
−13.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 96-102
−0.5
covered 10didn’t cover 21avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+21.5
18
vsAUB
AUBW 91-85
+20.5
21
@SC
SCL 89-97
+34.5
25
@ALA
ALAL 75-100
−1.5
28
vsMIZ
MIZL 64-88
−2.5
3
@FLA
FLAL 74-108
+20.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 96-102
+30.5
over 16under 15avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Auburn
31 games played
Straight up
16-15
52% wins
Against the spread
13-18
42% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-12
61% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vsTA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vsSC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vsTEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @TENN | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | vsALA | L 92-96 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 10 | vsVAN | L 76-84 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | @ARK | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 18 | @MSST | L 85-91 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | vsUK | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @OU | L 79-91 | -3.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 28 | vsMISS | L 79-85 | -10.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Mar 3 | vsLSU | W 88-74 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 7 | @ALA | L 84-96 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−2.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
−6.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−11.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−5.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
−11.5
21
vsUK
UKW 75-74
−2.5
24
@OU
OUL 79-91
−15.5
28
vsMISS
MISSL 79-85
−16.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 88-74
+3.5
7
@ALA
ALAL 84-96
−6.5
covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
+12.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−1.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−2.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
+20.5
21
vsUK
UKW 75-74
−4.5
24
@OU
OUL 79-91
+12.5
28
vsMISS
MISSL 79-85
+10.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 88-74
+6.5
7
@ALA
ALAL 84-96
+4.5
over 19under 12avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
13-18 overall · 5-13 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgia96–102
- L@ Florida74–108
- Lvs Missouri64–88
- L@ Alabama75–100
- L@ South Carolina89–97
4 days since their last game.
Auburn
16-15 overall · 7-11 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Alabama84–96
- Wvs LSU88–74
- Lvs Ole Miss79–85
- L@ Oklahoma79–91
- Wvs Kentucky75–74
4 days since their last game.