Enterprise Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
VAL -2.5✓ INST covered by 1.5
VAL -2.5✓ INST covered by 1.5Closing total140.5Under by 15.5
 INST | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9-20 | Record | 16-14 |
| 17-12 | ATS | 19-11 |
| 13-16 | O/U | 16-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: INST 73–75 VAL · ✓ VAL (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 37 | 25 | 62 |
| VAL | 28 | 35 | 63 |
1st half: INST 37, VAL 28 (INST by 9). The model had VAL by 0.8 and a total of 69.4 (actual 65).
Team stats
| INST | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-56 46% | Field goals | 21-57 37% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 3-4 75% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 35 16 off |
| 19 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 7 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| INST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camp Wagner G | 34 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 5-13 | 3-9 |
| Ian Scott F | 29 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Markus Harding C | 27 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bruno Alocen G | 27 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Xavier Hall G | 27 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Enel St. Bernard F | 20 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Jo Van Buggenhout G | 19 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Sterling Young G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Derek Vorst C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cooper Bean, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Hunter Harding, Martin Kaupanger, Zyair Greene, Caden Huttenlocker, Jayan Walker
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney G | 36 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6-16 | 4-10 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 33 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Owen Dease F | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 29 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 23 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sader Servilus G | 16 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Justus McNair G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson, Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Mark Brown Jr., Kobe Walker, Tucker Tornatta
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVAL -2.5
ModelVAL -1.6
Model edgeINST +0.9
W INST covered
Total
Market140.5
Model148.4
Model edgeOver 7.9
L Under
Projected score
INST 73.4 · VAL 75
INST 62 · VAL 63
Win probability
VAL 56%
1st half
Spread
VAL -0.8
INST -9.0
Total
69.4
65 points
Projected score
INST 34.3 · VAL 35.1
INST 37 · VAL 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVAL -2.5
no move
CloseVAL -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open136.5
▲ 4
Close140.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
INST +120 · VAL -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAL -2.5 · unchangedmodel VAL -1.5
model VAL -1.5
Opened 136.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 4 upmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| VAL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
INST 5–5 VALSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · VAL has won the last 2 meetings · INST 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025-26 | INST 75 @ VAL 76 | VAL -4.5 | INST W |
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | VAL 76 @ INST 72 | INST -2.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | VAL 62 @ INST 80 | INST -4.5 | INST W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | INST 95 @ VAL 98 | VAL -1.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | INST 83 @ VAL 64 | VAL +14.5 | INST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Indiana St
29 games played
Straight up
9-20
31% wins
Against the spread
17-12
59% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-16
45% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CLT | L 76-92 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 10 | @ SIUE | W 64-55 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 14 | @ DUKE | L 62-100 | +37.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 19 | vs LT | W 60-51 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 22 | vs BALL | W 70-52 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 26 | @LT | L 73-75 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs ALCN | L 74-81 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | vs USI | W 77-55 | -11.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ MILW | W 70-68 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs BRAD | L 99-108 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
| Dec 21 | @ ILST | L 65-85 | +13.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs BEL | W 81-80 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | @ UNI | L 66-75 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | @ DRKE | L 72-74 | +6.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs EVAN | L 69-72 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 14 | vsILST | W 94-89 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 17 | @ MUR | L 81-85 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 167.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 21 | @BRAD | L 68-75 | +8.5 | W +1.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 24 | vsDRKE | L 62-76 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 27 | @ UIC | L 74-76 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 31 | vsVAL | L 72-76 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @EVAN | W 84-63 | -1.5 | W +19.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 9 | vs SIU | L 65-80 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 12 | vsMUR | L 72-74 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 15 | @VAL | L 75-76 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 18 | vsUNI | L 60-81 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 136.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 21 | @BEL | L 70-87 | +12.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 25 | @SIU | L 55-66 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Mar 1 | vsUIC | W 79-63 | +3.5 | W +19.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
−11.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
+11.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−0.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
+5.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
+10.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+0.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
−19.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
+10.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
+4.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
−3.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−6.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+8.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+1.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
+4.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−10.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+11.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
+7.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
+1.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−17.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+3.5
31
vsVAL
VALL 72-76
−6.5
3
@EVAN
EVANW 84-63
+19.5
9
vsSIU
SIUL 65-80
−13.5
12
vsMUR
MURL 72-74
+1.5
15
@VAL
VALL 75-76
+3.5
18
vsUNI
UNIL 60-81
−15.5
21
@BEL
BELL 70-87
−4.5
25
@SIU
SIUL 55-66
−2.5
1
vsUIC
UICW 79-63
+19.5
covered 17didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
+15.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
−40.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−1.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
−36.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
−32.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+6.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
+2.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
−26.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
−21.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
+56.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−2.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+1.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+5.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
−3.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−4.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 94-89
+34.5
17
@MUR
MURL 81-85
−1.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 68-75
−12.5
24
vsDRKE
DRKEL 62-76
−13.5
27
@UIC
UICL 74-76
+2.5
31
vsVAL
VALL 72-76
+2.5
3
@EVAN
EVANW 84-63
+1.5
9
vsSIU
SIUL 65-80
−1.5
12
vsMUR
MURL 72-74
−17.5
15
@VAL
VALL 75-76
+5.5
18
vsUNI
UNIL 60-81
+4.5
21
@BEL
BELL 70-87
+0.5
25
@SIU
SIUL 55-66
−26.5
1
vsUIC
UICW 79-63
−2.5
over 13under 16avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
30 games played
Straight up
16-14
53% wins
Against the spread
19-11
63% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-14
53% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vsUSI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vsMUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vsUIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vsILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 28 | vsBEL | L 77-78 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | @INST | W 76-72 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @BRAD | L 65-72 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 6 | vsEVAN | W 70-63 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 9 | @DRKE | W 81-76 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 12 | @ILST | L 64-86 | +8.5 | L −13.5 | 138.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 15 | vsINST | W 76-75 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 18 | vsBRAD | W 79-72 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 21 | @UIC | W 71-67 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 25 | vsDRKE | W 74-71 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 28 | @EVAN | L 79-80 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+4.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+6.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
+0.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−1.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+8.5
12
@ILST
ILSTL 64-86
−13.5
15
vsINST
INSTW 76-75
−3.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADW 79-72
+9.5
21
@UIC
UICW 71-67
+11.5
25
vsDRKE
DRKEW 74-71
+0.5
28
@EVAN
EVANL 79-80
−6.5
covered 19didn’t cover 11avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+9.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+2.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
−7.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−3.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+12.5
12
@ILST
ILSTL 64-86
+11.5
15
vsINST
INSTW 76-75
+5.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADW 79-72
+8.5
21
@UIC
UICW 71-67
−0.5
25
vsDRKE
DRKEW 74-71
−1.5
28
@EVAN
EVANL 79-80
+21.5
over 16under 14avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Indiana St
9-20 overall · 4-16 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UIC79–63
- L@ S Illinois55–66
- L@ Belmont70–87
- Lvs Northern Iowa60–81
- L@ Valparaiso75–76
4 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
16-14 overall · 11-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Evansville79–80
- Wvs Drake74–71
- W@ UIC71–67
- Wvs Bradley79–72
- Wvs Indiana St76–75
5 days since their last game.