Pauley Pavilion · at UCLA · Conference game
Closing line
UCLA -6.5✓ UCLA covered by 12.5
UCLA -6.5✓ UCLA covered by 12.5Closing total150.5Under by 7.5
 USC | This season | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| 17-9 | Record | 18-9 |
| 13-13 | ATS | 11-16 |
| 14-12 | O/U | 14-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 74–81 UCLA · ✓ UCLA (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 29 | 33 | 62 |
| UCLA | 38 | 43 | 81 |
1st half: USC 29, UCLA 38 (UCLA by 9). The model had UCLA by 3.8 and a total of 72.4 (actual 67).
Team stats
| USC | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-60 35% | Field goals | 31-63 49% |
| 8-26 31% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 12-14 86% |
| 41 17 off | Rebounds | 31 8 off |
| 11 | Assists | 18 |
| 2 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 35 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 8-16 | 5-9 |
| Kam Woods G | 30 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 27 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 26 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Alijah Arenas G | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Williams II F | 28 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Amarion Dickerson, Brit Burden, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Rodney Rice
| UCLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Dent G | 37 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 10-16 | 5-6 |
| Trent Perry G | 34 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Bilodeau F | 28 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 6-14 | 0-2 |
| Skyy Clark G | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Eric Dailey Jr. F | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Xavier Booker C | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Eric Freeny G | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Steven Jamerson II F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Williams F | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jamar Brown G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Anthony Peoples Jr., Markell Alston, Christian Horry, Jack Seidler, Evan Manjikian
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCLA -6.5
ModelUCLA -6.6
Model edgeUCLA +0.1
W UCLA covered
Total
Market150.5
Model154.8
Model edgeOver 4.3
L Under
Projected score
USC 74.1 · UCLA 80.7
USC 62 · UCLA 81
Win probability
UCLA 72%
1st half
Spread
UCLA -3.8
UCLA -9.0
Total
72.4
67 points
Projected score
USC 34.3 · UCLA 38.1
USC 29 · UCLA 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCLA -6.5
no move
CloseUCLA -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open148.5
▲ 2
Close150.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USC +260 · UCLA -325
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCLA -6.5 · unchangedmodel UCLA -6.5 matches the line
model UCLA -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 148.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| UCLA | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
USC 3–6 UCLAUCLA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCLA has won the last 2 meetings · USC 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | USC 63 @ UCLA 90 | UCLA -9.5 | UCLA W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | UCLA 82 @ USC 76 | USC +1.5 | UCLA W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | USC 62 @ UCLA 56 | UCLA -4.5 | USC W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | UCLA 65 @ USC 50 | USC -4.5 | UCLA W |
| Jan 26, 2022-23 | UCLA 64 @ USC 77 | USC +4.5 | USC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
26 games played
Straight up
17-9
65% wins
Against the spread
13-13
50% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-12
54% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 9 | @ MINN | W 70-69 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs MD | W 88-71 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | vs PUR | L 64-69 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 21 | vs NU | L 68-74 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 25 | @ WIS | W 73-71 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 158.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ IOWA | L 72-73 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 31 | vs RUTG | W 78-75 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 3 | vs IU | W 81-75 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 8 | @ PSU | W 77-75 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 11 | @ OSU | L 82-89 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 18 | vs ILL | L 65-101 | +8.5 | L −27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | vsORE | L 70-71 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
+4.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+7.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
+4.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−12.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
+9.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+8.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
−8.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+7.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−1.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+0.5
18
vsILL
ILLL 65-101
−27.5
21
vsORE
OREL 70-71
−6.5
covered 13didn’t cover 13avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
9
@MINN
MINNW 70-69
−8.5
13
vsMD
MDW 88-71
+8.5
17
vsPUR
PURL 64-69
−22.5
21
vsNU
NUL 68-74
−7.5
25
@WIS
WISW 73-71
−14.5
28
@IOWA
IOWAL 72-73
+3.5
31
vsRUTG
RUTGW 78-75
+6.5
3
vsIU
IUW 81-75
+2.5
8
@PSU
PSUW 77-75
−5.5
11
@OSU
OSUL 82-89
+18.5
18
vsILL
ILLL 65-101
+14.5
21
vsORE
OREL 70-71
−8.5
over 14under 12avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCLA
27 games played
Straight up
18-9
67% wins
Against the spread
11-16
41% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-13
52% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs EWU | W 80-74 | -29.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 7 | vs PEPP | W 74-63 | -29.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 10 | vs WGA | W 83-62 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 14 | vs ARIZ | L 65-69 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 18 | vs SAC | W 79-48 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs PRES | W 86-46 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 131.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAL | L 72-80 | -7.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @WASH | W 82-80 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | vsORE | W 74-63 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs GONZ | L 72-82 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vsASU | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 19 | vsCP | W 108-87 | -24.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 23 | vs UCR | W 97-65 | -24.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @IOWA | L 61-74 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @WIS | L 72-80 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 10 | vsMD | W 67-55 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 14 | @PSU | W 71-60 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 17 | @OSU | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 20 | vsPUR | W 69-67 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vsNU | W 71-64 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 28 | @ORE | W 73-57 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 31 | vsIU | L 97-98 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 3 | vsRUTG | W 98-66 | -13.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vsWASH | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | @MICH | L 56-86 | +15.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @MSU | L 59-82 | +8.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 21 | vsILL | W 95-94 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
−23.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−18.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−9.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−2.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
+3.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+14.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
−15.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
−0.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
+2.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+0.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+3.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
−3.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+7.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−6.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−4.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−1.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
+6.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
−7.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
+7.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−0.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
+11.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
−4.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+18.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
−0.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
−14.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+7.5
covered 11didn’t cover 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsEWU
EWUW 80-74
+4.5
7
vsPEPP
PEPPW 74-63
−15.5
10
vsWGA
WGAW 83-62
−1.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 65-69
−19.5
18
vsSAC
SACW 79-48
−19.5
21
vsPRES
PRESW 86-46
+0.5
25
vsCAL
CALL 72-80
+8.5
3
@WASH
WASHW 82-80
+20.5
6
vsORE
OREW 74-63
−9.5
13
vsGONZ
GONZL 72-82
+6.5
17
vsASU
ASUW 90-77
+24.5
19
vsCP
CPW 108-87
+33.5
23
vsUCR
UCRW 97-65
+13.5
3
@IOWA
IOWAL 61-74
−5.5
6
@WIS
WISL 72-80
−0.5
10
vsMD
MDW 67-55
−25.5
14
@PSU
PSUW 71-60
−17.5
17
@OSU
OSUL 74-86
+13.5
20
vsPUR
PURW 69-67
−11.5
24
vsNU
NUW 71-64
−8.5
28
@ORE
OREW 73-57
−6.5
31
vsIU
IUL 97-98
+50.5
3
vsRUTG
RUTGW 98-66
+21.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 77-73
+5.5
14
@MICH
MICHL 56-86
−14.5
17
@MSU
MSUL 59-82
+1.5
21
vsILL
ILLW 95-94
+42.5
over 14under 13avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
17-9 overall · 7-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Oregon70–71
- Lvs Illinois65–101
- L@ Ohio State82–89
- W@ Penn State77–75
- Wvs Indiana81–75
3 days since their last game.
UCLA
18-9 overall · 10-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Illinois95–94
- L@ Michigan St59–82
- L@ Michigan56–86
- Wvs Washington77–73
- Wvs Rutgers98–66
3 days since their last game.