Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
STAN -1.5✓ STAN covered by 6.5
STAN -1.5✓ STAN covered by 6.5Closing total147.5Over by 16.5
| STAN | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 18-11 | Record | 13-16 |
| 15-14 | ATS | 15-14 |
| 12-17 | O/U | 20-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STAN 74–74 ND · ✗ ND (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| ND | 37 | 41 | 78 |
1st half: STAN 45, ND 37 (STAN by 8). The model had ND by 0.4 and a total of 69.2 (actual 82).
Team stats
| STAN | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-56 57% | Field goals | 22-51 43% |
| 12-23 52% | 3-pointers | 9-22 41% |
| 10-16 63% | Free throws | 25-28 89% |
| 27 7 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 6 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Gealer G | 37 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Ebuka Okorie G | 35 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 10-19 | 3-6 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 30 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Thompson F | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donavin Young F | 21 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 21 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Grant, Anthony Batson Jr., Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure, Ethan Kitch, Myles Jones, Kristers Skrinda, Chisom Okpara
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 37 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-7 |
| Cole Certa G | 36 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 4-14 | 3-9 |
| Logan Imes G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Carson Towt F | 22 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Brady Koehler F | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Haralson G | 22 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 21 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryder Frost F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie, Markus Burton, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSTAN -1.5
ModelND -0.9
Model edgeND +2.4
L STAN covered
Total
Market147.5
Model147.9
Model edgeOver 0.4
W Over
Projected score
STAN 73.5 · ND 74.4
STAN 86 · ND 78
Win probability
ND 53%
1st half
Spread
ND -0.4
STAN -8.0
Total
69.2
82 points
Projected score
STAN 34.4 · ND 34.8
STAN 45 · ND 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -1.5
3 → STAN
CloseSTAN -1.5
3 pts toward STAN
Total
Open144.5
▲ 3
Close147.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
STAN -112 · ND -108
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -1.5 · closed STAN -1.5 · moved 3 toward STANmodel ND -1
model ND -1
Opened 144.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 3 upmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ND | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
STAN 0–2 NDND leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ND has won the last 2 meetings · STAN 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025-26 | ND 47 @ STAN 40 | STAN -6.5 | ND W |
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | STAN 54 @ ND 56 | ND +1.5 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Stanford
29 games played
Straight up
18-11
62% wins
Against the spread
15-14
52% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-17
41% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vsND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vs LOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | @ UVA | L 55-70 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 14 | vs UNC | W 95-90 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | vs DUKE | L 50-80 | +11.5 | L −18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs CAL | L 66-78 | -4.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ MIA | L 70-79 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | @ FSU | L 80-88 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 4 | vs CLEM | L 64-66 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 7 | vs GT | W 95-72 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 11 | @ BC | W 70-64 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 139.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 14 | @ WAKE | L 63-68 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 21 | @CAL | L 66-72 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 25 | vs PITT | W 75-67 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 28 | vs SMU | W 95-75 | +1.5 | W +21.5 | 155.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−2.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+9.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−16.5
28
@MIA
MIAL 70-79
+0.5
31
@FSU
FSUL 80-88
−4.5
4
vsCLEM
CLEML 64-66
+1.5
7
vsGT
GTW 95-72
+13.5
11
@BC
BCW 70-64
+2.5
14
@WAKE
WAKEL 63-68
−0.5
21
@CAL
CALL 66-72
−4.5
25
vsPITT
PITTW 75-67
−0.5
28
vsSMU
SMUW 95-75
+21.5
covered 15didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−18.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+37.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−2.5
28
@MIA
MIAL 70-79
+1.5
31
@FSU
FSUL 80-88
+15.5
4
vsCLEM
CLEML 64-66
−8.5
7
vsGT
GTW 95-72
+15.5
11
@BC
BCW 70-64
−5.5
14
@WAKE
WAKEL 63-68
−19.5
21
@CAL
CALL 66-72
−11.5
25
vsPITT
PITTW 75-67
+3.5
28
vsSMU
SMUW 95-75
+14.5
over 12under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
15-14
52% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-9
69% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vsCLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsMIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vsBC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vsUVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @LOU | L 65-76 | +19.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | vsFSU | L 79-82 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 10 | @SMU | L 81-89 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | vsGT | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | @PITT | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 24 | vsDUKE | L 56-100 | +16.5 | L −27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vs NCSU | W 96-90 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
+8.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
−4.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+2.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+9.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
−1.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
−27.5
28
vsNCSU
NCSUW 96-90
+12.5
covered 15didn’t cover 14avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
4
@LOU
LOUL 65-76
−14.5
7
vsFSU
FSUL 79-82
+6.5
10
@SMU
SMUL 81-89
+15.5
14
vsGT
GTW 89-74
+12.5
21
@PITT
PITTL 68-73
+0.5
24
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-100
+14.5
28
vsNCSU
NCSUW 96-90
+32.5
over 20under 9avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Stanford
18-11 overall · 7-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SMU95–75
- Wvs Pitt75–67
- L@ California66–72
- L@ Wake Forest63–68
- W@ Boston College70–64
4 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
13-16 overall · 4-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC State96–90
- Lvs Duke56–100
- L@ Pitt68–73
- Wvs Georgia Tech89–74
- L@ SMU81–89
4 days since their last game.