When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
Leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 25 games
2024 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
SF -6.5 | 48.5 | 10132337 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 11 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10173339 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
20–19 |
2024 · Week 11 |
NYJ -4.5 | 43.5 | 3203355 | Q4 | IND Q1 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NO -7.5 | 43.5 | 6233345 | Q4 | CAR Q1 Late over Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIA -4.5 | 46.5 | 10203855 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIN -1.5 | 50.5 | 10314560 | Q4 | DET Q2 Lead lost |
31–29 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 17333647 | U | ARI Q4 Lead lost |
24–23 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | 17303744 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
PHI -5.5 | 46.5 | 0132543 | U | ATL Q1 Lead lost |
22–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
KC -6.5 | 47.5 | 6263951 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Lead lost |
25–26 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 39.5 | 1430304043 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 2 |
BAL -8.5 | 42.5 | 3152949 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–23 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -3.5 | 49.5 | 7243137 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
SEA
LAR
WSH
DAL
NYJ
JAX
CLE
DEN
ARI
MIN
IND
NE
PIT
SF
GB
CHI
NO
CAR
MIA
DET
BAL
CIN
TB
ATL
HOU
PHI
KC
LVWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.