When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
Leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 25 games
2023 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
SF -10.5 | 50.5 | 3133545 | U | GB Q1 Lead lost |
21–24 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SEA -3 | 47.5 | 3192641 | U | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 16 |
BUF -13 | 44 | 3243446 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
PHI -5 | 46 | 7132737 | U | SEA Q4 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 15 |
ATL -2.5 | 32.5 | 0101016 | U | CAR Q4 Lead lost |
7–9 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIA -13.5 | 44.5 | 7172355 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
28–27 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DAL -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415576 | Q3 | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
35–41 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIN -3 | 43 | 06922 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
12–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DEN -2.5 | 43 | 3192641 | U | MIN Q2 Lead lost |
20–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAR -2 | 46 | 7202333 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
16–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DET -8 | 48 | 7243457 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–31 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BAL -6 | 39 | 20264164 | Q3 | CLE Q4 Lead lost |
33–31 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 43 | 0132528 | U | CAR Q1 Lead lost |
13–15 |
2023 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 43.5 | 392636 | U | GB Q4 Lead lost |
17–19 |
2023 · Week 7 |
CLE -3.5 | 40.5 | 21485877 | Q2 | IND Q3 Lead lost |
39–38 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BUF -15.5 | 42.5 | 36623 | U | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
9–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
PHI -5.5 | 41.5 | 7232634 | U | NYJ Q2 Lead lost |
14–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
GB
SF
SEA
ARI
LAR
BUF
LAC
PHI
CHI
CLE
HOU
TEN
ATL
CAR
MIA
DAL
MIN
DEN
DET
BAL
PIT
NYJ
NYG
INDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 25 | 100% 25 |
| 1–3 | 13 | 100% 13 |
| 4–7 | 27 | 93% 25 |
| 8–10 | 26 | 38% 10 |
| 11–14 | 29 | 52% 15 |
| 15–17 | 30 | 23% 7 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 9% 3 |
| 22+ | 31 | 6% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.