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NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Mount St Marys @ Niagara

Gallagher Center · at Niagara · Conference game
#278MSMMount St Marys
@
#346NIANiagara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSMThis seasonNIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 69–67 · win probability MSM 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 136.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

MSM 5, NIA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, NIA 24.8%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, NIA 67.1%
MSMBig
NIA offense vs MSM defense
Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
MSMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), NIA 63.4 (364th). Faster games mean more points
MSMSmall
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 42.6% and 40.5% of their shots
NIASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, NIA 18.9%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, NIA 16.6%
NIASmall
Home court
NIA at home. This season: NIA 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
MSMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, NIA 15%. Transfers in: MSM 3, NIA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 290th-hardest schedule, NIA the 335th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MSM offense vs NIA defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, NIA 26.6. Allowed: MSM 37.3, NIA 33.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMSM -1.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model136.5
Model edge—
Projected score
MSM 69.2 · NIA 67.3
Win probability
MSM 56%
1st half
Spread
MSM -1.2
Total
63.9
Projected score
MSM 32.6 · NIA 31.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 2, Niagara 0, even 3
Mount St MarysBetterNiagara
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55
MSMSmall
G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49
MSMBig
G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2
Even
G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13
Even
G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43
Even
G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43
Mount St MarysBetterNiagara
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
Even
NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
MSMBig
NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
MSMSmall
Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterNIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mount St Marys
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Niagara
Guards
T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min
Forwards
V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSMNIA
Scoring
67.9 #315Points per game63.3 #355
1.00 #327Points per possession1.00 #330
68.0 #231Pace (possessions)63.4 #364
Shooting
50.6 #208Effective FG%50.5 #214
32.7 #2443-point %33.7 #188
42.6 #1253-point attempt rate40.5 #159
33.3 #230Free throw rate26.6 #353
Possessions
22.4 #364Turnover rate18.9 #318
32.3 #115Offensive rebound rate24.8 #344
13.2 #196Assists per game13.8 #162
Defense
71.0 #74Points allowed71.7 #98
1.05 #84Points allowed per possession1.13 #300
47.2 #23Opponent effective FG%52.8 #260
32.3 #81Opponent 3-point %35.3 #268
15.3 #262Turnovers forced16.6 #177
70.9 #114Defensive rebound rate67.1 #297
5.8 #261Steals per game5.6 #284
2.9 #248Blocks per game2.8 #254
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena58–63
  • W@ Fairfield69–47
  • L@ Sacred Heart69–77
  • Wvs Canisius68–47
  • Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack66–73
  • Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
  • L@ Rider62–67
  • L@ Mount St Marys63–76
  • Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.