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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

George Mason @ High Point

Qubein Center · at High Point
#93GMUGeorge Mason
@
#90HPUHigh Point
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GMUThis seasonHPU
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 77–73 · win probability HPU 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GMU 2, HPU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HPUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GMU 15.8%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: GMU 15.5%, HPU 21.3%
Context
Schedule so far
GMU has played the 118th-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: GMU plays 64.7 a game (351st fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points
GMUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GMU 41.1, HPU 40.8. Allowed: GMU 28.9, HPU 35.5
GMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GMU 31.3%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: GMU 71.7%, HPU 68.9%
HPUSmall
Home court
HPU at home. This season: HPU 0-0 at home, GMU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 35.2% and 43.6% of their shots
Even
GMU offense vs HPU defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GMU 24%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: GMU 8, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5
Even
HPU offense vs GMU defense
Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HPU -4.5—
Total—149.7—
Projected score—GMU 72.6 · HPU 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHPU -2.5—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreGMU 33.7 · HPU 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

High Point has the better starters

Position by position: George Mason 0, High Point 1, even 4
George MasonBetterHigh Point
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
Even
G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
Even
G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
HPUSmall
G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
Even
F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
Even
F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85
George MasonBetterHigh Point
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Even
HPU defense128th of 366 · -2.3
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
Even
HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
HPUSmall
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
HPUBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGMU betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
High Point
Guards
J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR
Forwards
I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GMUHPU
Scoring
72.9 #227Points per game86.4 #9
1.13 #93Points per possession1.20 #12
64.7 #351Pace (possessions)71.7 #47
Shooting
52.7 #113Effective FG%54.5 #51
33.3 #2143-point %34.2 #161
35.2 #2703-point attempt rate43.6 #98
41.1 #44Free throw rate40.8 #50
Possessions
15.8 #121Turnover rate12.8 #5
31.3 #149Offensive rebound rate31.8 #131
12.6 #243Assists per game15.4 #74
Defense
68.0 #31Points allowed72.8 #128
1.05 #89Points allowed per possession1.01 #38
49.5 #83Opponent effective FG%50.5 #126
32.6 #91Opponent 3-point %32.6 #97
15.5 #254Turnovers forced21.3 #8
71.7 #79Defensive rebound rate68.9 #207
5.0 #334Steals per game10.1 #2
3.0 #228Blocks per game3.6 #119
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas88–94
  • Wvs Wisconsin83–82
  • Wvs Winthrop91–76
  • Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.