Pinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska
#332LEMLe Moyne
@
#27NEBNebraska
LineNEB -33.5moved 1 toward LEM
Total152.5down 1 from 153.5
Season records: Le Moyne and Nebraska
LEMThis seasonNEB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 89–56 · win probability NEB 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
NEB -33.5
moved 1 toward LEM
Total
152.5
model 145.5 · Under by 7
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
90% LEM
83% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

LEM 1, NEB 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
LEM offense vs NEB defense
Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LEM has played the 344th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NEBBig
NEB offense vs LEM defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LEM 19.1%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: LEM 15.0%, NEB 18.9%
NEBBig
Three-pointers
LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 40.8% and 51.1% of their shots
LEMSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LEM 39.5, NEB 26.2. Allowed: LEM 32.7, NEB 25.1
NEBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1
NEBSmall
Home court
NEB at home. This season: NEB 0-0 at home, LEM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LEM plays 69.2 a game (168th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points
NEBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LEM 25.2%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: LEM 71.0%, NEB 72.6%
NEBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LEM 24%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: LEM 7, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the underdog451374%51%50%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward LEM
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened NEB -34.5 · now NEB -33.5 · moved 1 toward LEMmodel NEB -33
Opened 153.5 · now 152 · moved 1.5 downmodel 145.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
LEM +33.5SpreadNEB -33.5
Bets
Money
Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5
Bets
Money

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
LEMNEBOverUnderLEMNEB
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-33.5-110+33.5-110152-105152-115——
BetRiversBetRivers-33.5-115+33.5-110153.5-114153.5-112——
BovadaBovada-33.5-110+33.5-110152-105152-115——
DraftKingsDK-33.5-110+33.5-110152.5-110152.5-110——
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-33.5-106+33.5-106152-103152-113——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadNEB -33.5NEB -33.2LEM +0.3
Total152.5145.5Under 7.0
Projected score—LEM 56.2 · NEB 89.3

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadNEB -19.6—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreLEM 24.2 · NEB 43.8—

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Le Moyne 0, Nebraska 4, even 1
Le MoyneBetterNebraska
G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
NEBBig
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
NEBSmall
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
NEBBig
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27
NEBBig
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
Le MoyneBetterNebraska
LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8
NEBBig
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0
NEBBig
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
NEBBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
NEBBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
Bench-6.1 · 5 players
NEBBig
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLEM betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Le Moyne
Guards
A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min
Forwards
K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew
Centers
P. Hartman9 min · TR
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LEMNEB
Scoring
72.3 #234Points per game77.0 #116
1.04 #265Points per possession1.15 #61
69.2 #168Pace (possessions)67.3 #267
Shooting
52.6 #118Effective FG%55.5 #28
34.3 #1523-point %35.5 #91
40.8 #1513-point attempt rate51.1 #9
39.5 #68Free throw rate26.2 #356
Possessions
19.1 #323Turnover rate14.5 #44
25.2 #337Offensive rebound rate26.7 #306
14.0 #149Assists per game18.0 #10
Defense
73.9 #154Points allowed66.1 #14
1.07 #132Points allowed per possession0.98 #13
49.3 #75Opponent effective FG%48.1 #40
36.0 #303Opponent 3-point %30.5 #19
15.0 #289Turnovers forced18.9 #54
71.0 #107Defensive rebound rate72.6 #47
5.5 #300Steals per game7.1 #112
3.3 #177Blocks per game2.5 #303

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stonehill71–81
  • L@ New Haven59–66
  • Wvs FDU76–59
  • L@ Stonehill68–77
  • L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.