Lipscomb Bisons at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETShow Me Center · at SE Missouri

LineLIP -2.5moved 1 toward LIP

Total152.5no move

Season records: Lipscomb and SE Missouri
LIP	This season	SEMO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIP 74–73 · win probability LIP 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

LIP -2.5

moved 1 toward LIP

Total

152.5

model 147.5 · Under by 5

Model edge

SEMO by 1

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

LIP 3, SEMO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SEMOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, SEMO 29.6%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, SEMO 71.8%

LIPSmall

LIP offense vs SEMO defense

Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings

LIPSmall

Three-pointers

LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 47.9% and 36.0% of their shots

LIPSmall

SEMO offense vs LIP defense

Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, SEMO the 351st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SEMOSmall

Home court

SEMO at home. This season: SEMO 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, SEMO 26%. Transfers in: LIP 2, SEMO 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, SEMO 38.8. Allowed: LIP 29.0, SEMO 48.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, SEMO 16.8%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, SEMO 18.1%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), SEMO 70.2 (109th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of under 3	1412	54%	50%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1094	54%	49%	50%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenLIP -1.5

1 → LIP

NowLIP -2.5

1 pt toward LIP

Total

Open152.5

no move

Now152.5

No change since the open

Moneyline

LIP -120 · SEMO -103

Line movement

Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened LIP -1.5 · now LIP -2.5 · moved 1 toward LIPmodel LIP -1.5

model LIP -1.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5

Bets

41%59%

Money

38%62%

LIPWinner

SEMO

Bets

77%23%

Money

96%

Money leans SEMO · 73 pts more of the money than of the bets

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LIP	SEMO	Over	Under	LIP	SEMO
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	153-105	153-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+0.5-122	-0.5-104	152.5-117	152.5-109	-122	-104
BovadaBovada	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	153-105	153-115	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	152.5-110	152.5-110	-118	-102
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+2.5-106	-2.5-106	153-103	153-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	LIP -2.5	LIP -1.4	SEMO +1.1
Total	152.5	147.5	Under 5.0
Projected score	—	LIP 74.4 · SEMO 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIP -0.9	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	LIP 35 · SEMO 34	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LWLWL	14-16	47%	7-10	8-11
SEMO WLWLL	14-16	47%	5-7	4-4

Venue/role: LIP away, as favorite; SEMO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP UUOUU	16-14	53%	17-13
SEMO UUOUU	13-17	43%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIP	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SEMO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lipscomb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 3	@ IOWA	No recent meeting
Nov 7	vs SIUE	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs BEL	L68–75WU

SE Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ SC	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ MTSU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ STMN	L72–84LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIP 2–0 SEMOLIP leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · LIP has won the last 2 meetings · LIP 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	LIP 88 @ SEMO 77	SEMO -3.5	LIP W
Dec 5, 2024-25	SEMO 60 @ LIP 78	LIP -16.5	LIP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U U U O O O O O U U O O U O U O U O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@BEL	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 22	vsWCU	W 83-62	-5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 26	@MRSH	W 90-67	+7.5	W +30.5	157.5	U 157
Nov 29	@SEMO	W 88-77	+3.5	W +14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 3	vsTNTC	W 83-80	-10.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 7	vsAAMU	W 92-58	-11.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 16	@DUKE	L 73-97	+32.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 170
Dec 29	@CIN	L 62-89	+13.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 1	vsJAX	W 76-57	-12.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsUNF	W 82-74	-18.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 156
Jan 8	@STET	L 83-91	-11.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 10	@FGCU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 161
Jan 15	vsBELL	W 81-71	-11.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 17	vsAPSU	W 82-78	-2.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 22	vsSTET	W 79-74	-15.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 23	vsFGCU	W 86-71	-5.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 29	@JAX	L 65-70	-3.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 31	@UNF	W 100-94	-10.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 194
Feb 4	@APSU	L 76-87	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsCARK	L 78-86	-3.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 164
Feb 11	vsEKU	W 75-61	-6.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 136
Feb 14	@QUC	L 81-87	+3.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@BELL	W 75-72	-3.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 21	vsUNA	W 73-51	-12.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 25	@WGA	L 78-84	-5.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 28	@EKU	W 80-77	-1.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsFGCU	L 53-77	-3.5	L −27.5	150.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

BEL

L 68-75

+5.5

WCU

W 83-62

+15.5

MRSH

W 90-67

+30.5

SEMO

W 88-77

+14.5

TNTC

W 83-80

−7.5

AAMU

W 92-58

+22.5

DUKE

L 73-97

+8.5

CIN

L 62-89

−13.5

JAX

W 76-57

+6.5

UNF

W 82-74

−10.5

STET

L 83-91

−19.5

FGCU

W 84-77

+9.5

BELL

W 81-71

−1.5

APSU

W 82-78

+1.5

STET

W 79-74

−10.5

FGCU

W 86-71

+9.5

JAX

L 65-70

−8.5

UNF

W 100-94

−4.5

APSU

L 76-87

−6.5

CARK

L 78-86

−11.5

EKU

W 75-61

+7.5

QUC

L 81-87

−2.5

BELL

W 75-72

−0.5

UNA

W 73-51

+9.5

WGA

L 78-84

−11.5

EKU

W 80-77

+1.5

FGCU

L 53-77

−27.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

BEL

L 68-75

−15.5

WCU

W 83-62

−6.5

MRSH

W 90-67

−0.5

SEMO

W 88-77

+11.5

TNTC

W 83-80

+10.5

AAMU

W 92-58

+3.5

DUKE

L 73-97

+18.5

CIN

L 62-89

+0.5

JAX

W 76-57

−14.5

UNF

W 82-74

−16.5

STET

L 83-91

+23.5

FGCU

W 84-77

+3.5

BELL

W 81-71

−2.5

APSU

W 82-78

+4.5

STET

W 79-74

−4.5

FGCU

W 86-71

+3.5

JAX

L 65-70

−7.5

UNF

W 100-94

+28.5

APSU

L 76-87

+6.5

CARK

L 78-86

+8.5

EKU

W 75-61

−24.5

QUC

L 81-87

+2.5

BELL

W 75-72

−7.5

UNA

W 73-51

−25.5

WGA

L 78-84

+8.5

EKU

W 80-77

−0.5

FGCU

L 53-77

−20.5

over 16under 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Missouri

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O O O U U O U O O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 6	@UTC	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 144
Dec 18	@TNTC	L 74-85	-2.5	L −13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	@TNST	W 91-82	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsEIU	W 68-59	-12.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsWIU	W 73-50	-13.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	@USI	W 84-76	-7.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@MORE	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 15	vsLIN	L 76-88	-6.5	L −18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsSIUE	L 55-68	-9.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsUTM	W 66-50	-2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 22	vsLR	W 70-65	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@WIU	W 78-74	-10.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	@EIU	W 77-59	-4.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	vsMORE	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 7	vsUSI	W 90-65	-11.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	@SIUE	L 56-74	-1.5	L −19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	@LIN	W 73-61	+1.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 17	@UTM	W 56-53	+2.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 21	@LR	W 70-65	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsTNST	L 71-79	-2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsTNTC	W 89-73	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsLIN	W 68-66	-3.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 6	vsMORE	L 61-66	-3.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

UTC

W 74-70

+7.5

TNTC

L 74-85

−13.5

TNST

W 91-82

+7.5

EIU

W 68-59

−3.5

WIU

W 73-50

+9.5

USI

W 84-76

+0.5

L 69-71

−7.5

LIN

L 76-88

−18.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−22.5

UTM

W 66-50

+13.5

W 70-65

−0.5

WIU

W 78-74

−6.5

EIU

W 77-59

+13.5

W 82-70

+4.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−19.5

LIN

W 73-61

+13.5

UTM

W 56-53

+5.5

W 70-65

+3.5

TNST

L 71-79

−10.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+8.5

LIN

W 68-66

−1.5

L 61-66

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

UTC

W 74-70

−5.5

TNTC

L 74-85

+3.5

TNST

W 91-82

+21.5

EIU

W 68-59

−19.5

WIU

W 73-50

−24.5

USI

W 84-76

+13.5

L 69-71

−4.5

LIN

L 76-88

+9.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−16.5

UTM

W 66-50

−24.5

W 70-65

−10.5

WIU

W 78-74

+9.5

EIU

W 77-59

−2.5

W 82-70

+7.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−7.5

LIN

W 73-61

−20.5

UTM

W 56-53

−29.5

W 70-65

−8.5

TNST

L 71-79

−1.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+20.5

LIN

W 68-66

−14.5

L 61-66

−12.5

over 13under 17avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb has the better starters

Position by position: Lipscomb 2, SE Missouri 1, even 2

LipscombBetterSE Missouri

G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

Even

G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69

G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81

LIPBig

G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33

F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28

LIPSmall

G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11

F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3

SEMOBig

F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4

No call

F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

LipscombBetterSE Missouri

LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9

LIPSmall

SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1

LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0

LIPSmall

SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0

Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players

LIPBig

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players

SEMOBig

Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.1 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestLIP betterSEMO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lipscomb

Guards

T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew

Forwards

T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew

SE Missouri

Guards

M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew

Forwards

D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIP77.6 #104

SEMO73.2 #217

Points per possession

LIP1.10 #142

SEMO1.04 #267

Pace (possessions)

LIP70.8 #83

SEMO70.2 #109

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIP54.1 #67

SEMO49.8 #244

3-point %

LIP35.7 #75

SEMO30.9 #324

3-point attempt rate

LIP47.9 #24

SEMO36.0 #250

Free throw rate

LIP26.0 #357

SEMO38.8 #84

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIP16.0 #142

SEMO16.8 #192

Offensive rebound rate

LIP25.8 #327

SEMO29.6 #218

Assists per game

LIP17.2 #19

SEMO11.7 #306

Defense

Points allowed

LIP77.0 #242

SEMO72.3 #112

Points allowed per possession

LIP1.09 #187

SEMO1.03 #58

Opponent effective FG%

LIP53.2 #273

SEMO48.8 #57

Opponent 3-point %

LIP34.3 #207

SEMO33.1 #130

Turnovers forced

LIP17.7 #113

SEMO18.1 #91

Defensive rebound rate

LIP69.8 #171

SEMO71.8 #76

Steals per game

LIP6.8 #141

SEMO6.4 #190

Blocks per game

LIP2.6 #291

SEMO3.6 #121

LIP		SEMO
Scoring
77.6 #104	Points per game	73.2 #217
1.10 #142	Points per possession	1.04 #267
70.8 #83	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #109
Shooting
54.1 #67	Effective FG%	49.8 #244
35.7 #75	3-point %	30.9 #324
47.9 #24	3-point attempt rate	36.0 #250
26.0 #357	Free throw rate	38.8 #84
Possessions
16.0 #142	Turnover rate	16.8 #192
25.8 #327	Offensive rebound rate	29.6 #218
17.2 #19	Assists per game	11.7 #306
Defense
77.0 #242	Points allowed	72.3 #112
1.09 #187	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #58
53.2 #273	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #57
34.3 #207	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #130
17.7 #113	Turnovers forced	18.1 #91
69.8 #171	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #76
6.8 #141	Steals per game	6.4 #190
2.6 #291	Blocks per game	3.6 #121

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs FGCU53–77
W@ E Kentucky80–77
L@ West Georgia78–84
Wvs North Alabama73–51
W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morehead St61–66
Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
Lvs Tennessee St71–79
W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.