1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 10
  3. BEL @ LIP
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 10

Belmont Bruins at Lipscomb Bisons

Allen Arena · at Lipscomb
#138BELBelmont
@
#214LIPLipscomb
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELThis seasonLIP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 79–75 · win probability BEL 62%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BEL has more of the edges

BEL 3, LIP 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BELBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9; LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2
Context
Schedule so far
BEL has played the 146th-hardest schedule, LIP the 267th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BELSmall
BEL offense vs LIP defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
LIPSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BEL 18.0%, LIP 16.0%. Forced: BEL 17.4%, LIP 17.7%
BELSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BEL 28.8%, LIP 25.8%. Defensive: BEL 70.8%, LIP 69.8%
LIPSmall
Home court
LIP at home. This season: LIP 0-0 at home, BEL 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%; LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 45.7% and 47.9% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BEL 32.5, LIP 26.0. Allowed: BEL 30.7, LIP 29.0
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: BEL plays 70.5 a game (94th fastest), LIP 70.8 (83rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BEL 41%, LIP 44%. Transfers in: BEL 4, LIP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
LIP offense vs BEL defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BEL -3.5—
Total—153.4—
Projected score—BEL 78.5 · LIP 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBEL -2.2—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreBEL 37 · LIP 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Belmont 2, Lipscomb 2, even 1
BelmontBetterLipscomb
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
LIPBig
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
Even
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
LIPSmall
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
BELBig
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
BELBig
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
BelmontBetterLipscomb
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
BELSmall
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
Even
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
LIPBig
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
BELBig
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestBEL betterLIP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELLIP
Scoring
83.5 #23Points per game77.6 #104
1.18 #33Points per possession1.10 #142
70.5 #94Pace (possessions)70.8 #83
Shooting
61.0 #1Effective FG%54.1 #67
41.0 #13-point %35.7 #75
45.7 #513-point attempt rate47.9 #24
32.5 #248Free throw rate26.0 #357
Possessions
18.0 #272Turnover rate16.0 #142
28.8 #241Offensive rebound rate25.8 #327
18.5 #6Assists per game17.2 #19
Defense
74.1 #158Points allowed77.0 #242
1.05 #95Points allowed per possession1.09 #187
49.9 #93Opponent effective FG%53.2 #273
34.2 #197Opponent 3-point %34.3 #207
17.4 #126Turnovers forced17.7 #113
70.8 #118Defensive rebound rate69.8 #171
6.0 #241Steals per game6.8 #141
3.5 #151Blocks per game2.6 #291
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.