Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Belmont Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETCurb Event Center Arena · at Belmont

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

LineBEL -16.5moved 1 toward BEL

Total154.5up 2 from 152.5

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Belmont
USI	This season	BEL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 82–67 · win probability BEL 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

BEL -16.5

moved 1 toward BEL

Total

154.5

model 148.1 · Under by 6.5

Model edge

USI by 1.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

96% USI

74% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BEL has more of the edges

USI 0, BEL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

USI has played the 362nd-hardest schedule, BEL the 146th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BELBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: USI 43.7 and allows 49.4; BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9

BELBig

Three-pointers

USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%; BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 39.8% and 45.7% of their shots

BELBig

USI offense vs BEL defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings

BELBig

BEL offense vs USI defense

Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

BELSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USI 0%, BEL 41%. Transfers in: USI 0, BEL 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BELSmall

Home court

BEL at home. This season: BEL 0-0 at home, USI 0-0 away

BELSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USI 31.4%, BEL 28.8%. Defensive: USI 66.2%, BEL 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: USI plays 69.0 a game (177th fastest), BEL 70.5 (94th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: USI 37.2, BEL 32.5. Allowed: USI 36.2, BEL 30.7

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USI 17.1%, BEL 18.0%. Forced: USI 16.5%, BEL 17.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.5	993	94%	48%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	632	93%	49%	53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBEL -15.5

1 → BEL

NowBEL -16.5

1 pt toward BEL

Total

Open152.5

▲ 2

Now154.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

USI +1050 · BEL -2500

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened BEL -15.5 · now BEL -17.5 · moved 2 toward BELmodel BEL -15

model BEL -15

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

USI +16.5Spread

BEL -16.5

Bets

96%

Money

74%26%

Money is 22 pts ahead of bets on BEL -16.5

Over 154.5TotalUnder 154.5

Bets

71%29%

Money

73%27%

USIWinner

BEL

Bets

99%

Money

100%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	USI	BEL	Over	Under	USI	BEL
BetMGMMGM	-17.5-115	+17.5-105	154.5-115	154.5-105	+1050	-2500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-17.5-115	+17.5-105	154.5-110	154.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-16.5-107	+16.5-120	154.5-114	154.5-112	+1050	-3335
BetUSBetUS	-17.5-115	+17.5-105	154.5-110	154.5-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-17-105	+17-115	154.5-110	154.5-110	+1000	-2200
DraftKingsDK	-16.5-102	+16.5-118	154.5-115	154.5-105	+1200	-2400
FanDuelFD	-17.5-114	+17.5-106	154.5-115	154.5-105	+1280	-3500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-17.5-111	+17.5-101	154.5-108	154.5-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	BEL -16.5	BEL -14.9	USI +1.6
Total	154.5	148.1	Under 6.4
Projected score	—	USI 66.6 · BEL 81.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -8.8	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	USI 30.2 · BEL 39	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	8-7	10-15
BEL WWWLL	18-13	58%	8-6	16-13

Venue/role: USI away, as underdog; BEL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23
BEL UOOOO	19-12	61%	25-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BEL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ EVAN	No recent meeting
Nov 11	@ IUIN	W87–74LO
Nov 15	vs WMU	L74–88LO

Belmont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ LIP	W75–68LU
Nov 14	vs FUR	L74–76LU
Nov 23	vs YALE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Belmont

31 games played

Straight up

25-6

81% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-681%

W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W L W W W L W L L W L W L W L L W W L W W W L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

U O U U U U O O U O O U O O U O O O U U O O O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 7	@MTSU	W 83-62	-3.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsUIC	W 87-84	-12.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 16	@EVAN	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 19	@UCI	W 84-58	+1.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 29	@INST	L 80-81	-7.5	L −8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	vsBRAD	W 88-78	-3.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSIU	L 67-68	-6.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 7	@UNI	W 78-65	+2.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 143
Jan 10	@DRKE	W 78-76	-4.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 13	vsVAL	W 78-74	-11.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 152
Jan 17	@SIU	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 24	vsILST	W 80-69	-5.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@VAL	W 78-77	-5.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsMUR	W 103-86	-3.5	W +13.5	163.5	O 189
Feb 3	vsDRKE	W 103-90	-9.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@UIC	W 68-62	-1.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 130
Feb 9	@BRAD	L 84-95	-1.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 12	vsUNI	W 91-86	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 177
Feb 15	@MUR	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 157
Feb 21	vsINST	W 87-70	-12.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsEVAN	W 98-64	-18.5	W +15.5	152.5	O 162
Mar 1	@ILST	L 74-81	-1.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsDRKE	L 79-100	-12.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

MTSU

W 83-62

+17.5

UIC

W 87-84

−9.5

EVAN

W 83-78

−3.5

UCI

W 84-58

+27.5

INST

L 80-81

−8.5

BRAD

W 88-78

+6.5

SIU

L 67-68

−7.5

UNI

W 78-65

+15.5

DRKE

W 78-76

−2.5

VAL

W 78-74

−7.5

SIU

W 73-68

+1.5

ILST

W 80-69

+5.5

VAL

W 78-77

−4.5

MUR

W 103-86

+13.5

DRKE

W 103-90

+3.5

UIC

W 68-62

+4.5

BRAD

L 84-95

−12.5

UNI

W 91-86

+0.5

MUR

W 87-70

+15.5

INST

W 87-70

+4.5

EVAN

W 98-64

+15.5

ILST

L 74-81

−8.5

DRKE

L 79-100

−33.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

MTSU

W 83-62

−8.5

UIC

W 87-84

+16.5

EVAN

W 83-78

+13.5

UCI

W 84-58

−8.5

INST

L 80-81

+1.5

BRAD

W 88-78

+12.5

SIU

L 67-68

−23.5

UNI

W 78-65

+5.5

DRKE

W 78-76

+5.5

VAL

W 78-74

+5.5

SIU

W 73-68

−10.5

ILST

W 80-69

−1.5

VAL

W 78-77

+9.5

MUR

W 103-86

+25.5

DRKE

W 103-90

+38.5

UIC

W 68-62

−21.5

BRAD

L 84-95

+26.5

UNI

W 91-86

+38.5

MUR

W 87-70

−9.5

INST

W 87-70

+0.5

EVAN

W 98-64

+9.5

ILST

L 74-81

+4.5

DRKE

L 79-100

+26.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USI67.0 #333

BEL83.5 #23

Points per possession

USI0.97 #346

BEL1.18 #33

Pace (possessions)

USI69.0 #177

BEL70.5 #94

Shooting

Effective FG%

USI43.7 #363

BEL61.0 #1

3-point %

USI29.9 #345

BEL41.0 #1

3-point attempt rate

USI39.8 #178

BEL45.7 #51

Free throw rate

USI37.2 #123

BEL32.5 #248

Possessions

Turnover rate

USI17.1 #212

BEL18.0 #272

Offensive rebound rate

USI31.4 #145

BEL28.8 #241

Assists per game

USI9.7 #360

BEL18.5 #6

Defense

Points allowed

USI74.3 #165

BEL74.1 #158

Points allowed per possession

USI1.08 #165

BEL1.05 #95

Opponent effective FG%

USI49.4 #80

BEL49.9 #93

Opponent 3-point %

USI34.1 #193

BEL34.2 #197

Turnovers forced

USI16.5 #183

BEL17.4 #126

Defensive rebound rate

USI66.2 #315

BEL70.8 #118

Steals per game

USI6.2 #210

BEL6.0 #241

Blocks per game

USI4.2 #56

BEL3.5 #151

USI		BEL
Scoring
67.0 #333	Points per game	83.5 #23
0.97 #346	Points per possession	1.18 #33
69.0 #177	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #94
Shooting
43.7 #363	Effective FG%	61.0 #1
29.9 #345	3-point %	41.0 #1
39.8 #178	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #51
37.2 #123	Free throw rate	32.5 #248
Possessions
17.1 #212	Turnover rate	18.0 #272
31.4 #145	Offensive rebound rate	28.8 #241
9.7 #360	Assists per game	18.5 #6
Defense
74.3 #165	Points allowed	74.1 #158
1.08 #165	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #95
49.4 #80	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #93
34.1 #193	Opponent 3-point %	34.2 #197
16.5 #183	Turnovers forced	17.4 #126
66.2 #315	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #118
6.2 #210	Steals per game	6.0 #241
4.2 #56	Blocks per game	3.5 #151

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Drake79–100
L@ Illinois St74–81
Wvs Evansville98–64
Wvs Indiana St87–70
W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.