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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

C Arkansas @ Houston

Fertitta Center · at Houston
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#2HOUHouston AP #10
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonHOU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 91–54 · win probability HOU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

CARK 2, HOU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HOUBig
HOU offense vs CARK defense
Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
HOUBig
CARK offense vs HOU defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 246th-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CARKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, HOU 26.3. Allowed: CARK 30.1, HOU 38.7
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points
HOUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 48.7% and 40.7% of their shots
CARKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: CARK 2, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
HOUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, HOU 20.7%
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, HOU 69.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -36.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model145.6
Model edge—
Projected score
CARK 54.4 · HOU 91.1
Win probability
HOU 100%
1st half
Spread
HOU -21.7
Total
68.1
Projected score
CARK 23.2 · HOU 44.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Houston 4, even 1
C ArkansasBetterHouston
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
HOUBig
G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Even
G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
HOUBig
F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
HOUBig
F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
HOUBig
F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96
C ArkansasBetterHouston
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
HOUBig
HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
HOUBig
HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
HOUBig
Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
HOUBig
Bench+3.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Houston
Guards
C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew
Forwards
D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min
Centers
A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKHOU
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game76.9 #119
1.13 #90Points per possession1.18 #36
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)65.0 #346
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%51.9 #150
35.5 #893-point %34.7 #134
48.7 #213-point attempt rate40.7 #153
31.2 #278Free throw rate26.3 #355
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate12.8 #3
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate35.7 #32
16.0 #46Assists per game14.6 #111
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed62.3 #1
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession0.96 #5
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%46.2 #12
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %31.6 #49
19.1 #45Turnovers forced20.7 #14
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate69.7 #173
8.5 #18Steals per game7.5 #75
1.9 #351Blocks per game3.8 #96
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–65
  • Wvs Texas A&M88–57
  • Wvs Idaho78–47
  • Lvs Arizona74–79
  • Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.