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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Texas Southern @ Xavier

Cintas Center · at Xavier
#322TXSOTexas Southern
@
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TXSOThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 93–64 · win probability XAV 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

TXSO 0, XAV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, XAV the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVBig
XAV offense vs TXSO defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 322nd, on the model’s ratings
XAVBig
TXSO offense vs XAV defense
Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, XAV 15.5%
XAVSmall
Three-pointers
TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 32.5% and 40.6% of their shots
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, XAV 28.1. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, XAV 32.6
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, XAV 70.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelXAV -28.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model156.7
Model edge—
Projected score
TXSO 64.2 · XAV 92.5
Win probability
XAV 99%
1st half
Spread
XAV -16.8
Total
73.2
Projected score
TXSO 28.2 · XAV 45
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, Xavier 3, even 2
Texas SouthernBetterXavier
G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23
XAVBig
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5
XAVBig
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Texas SouthernBetterXavier
TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7
XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
TXSO defense322nd of 366 · -8.4
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players
XAVBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-4.2 · 5 players
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTXSO betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas Southern
Guards
K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR
Forwards
A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew
Centers
J. Gorecki17 min
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TXSOXAV
Scoring
73.9 #204Points per game78.4 #91
1.03 #293Points per possession1.09 #149
71.8 #40Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
49.7 #251Effective FG%51.8 #155
33.1 #2243-point %36.5 #39
32.5 #3243-point attempt rate40.6 #156
38.2 #96Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
18.5 #297Turnover rate14.0 #21
28.8 #237Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
11.1 #332Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
80.0 #318Points allowed80.6 #329
1.12 #260Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
52.5 #240Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
34.1 #190Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
16.5 #188Turnovers forced15.5 #253
68.8 #211Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
6.6 #167Steals per game6.5 #181
3.3 #173Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
  • Lvs Prairie View59–70
  • Wvs Jackson St82–57
  • Wvs Alcorn St92–87
  • L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.