State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -17.5✓ ILL covered by 8.5
ILL -17.5✓ ILL covered by 8.5Closing total147.5Under by 13.5
 ORE | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 11-18 | Record | 22-7 |
| 11-18 | ATS | 17-12 |
| 13-16 | O/U | 12-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ORE 67–84 ILL · ✓ ILL (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 21 | 33 | 54 |
| ILL | 41 | 39 | 80 |
1st half: ORE 21, ILL 41 (ILL by 20). The model had ILL by 10.0 and a total of 70.3 (actual 62).
Team stats
| ORE | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-64 33% | Field goals | 29-71 41% |
| 5-29 17% | 3-pointers | 10-36 28% |
| 7-9 78% | Free throws | 12-14 86% |
| 36 9 off | Rebounds | 48 14 off |
| 10 | Assists | 13 |
| 3 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 36 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-6 |
| Nate Bittle C | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 7-15 | 1-7 |
| Takai Simpkins G | 33 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4-12 | 1-4 |
| Sean Stewart F | 28 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Drew Carter G | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dez Lindsay F | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Jamari Phillips G | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Oleksandr Kobzystyi F | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Luke Johnson F | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Efe Vatan F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Miles Stewart, Devon Pryor, Jackson Shelstad, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Ege Demir, Wei Lin
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 34 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| David Mirkovic F | 27 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 8-15 | 3-8 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 24 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Jake Davis F | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 21 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7-12 | 0-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 17 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| AJ Redd G | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Lee G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Jason Jakstys
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -17.5
ModelILL -17.1
Model edgeORE +0.4
L ILL covered
Total
Market147.5
Model150.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
L Under
Projected score
ORE 66.6 · ILL 83.7
ORE 54 · ILL 80
Win probability
ILL 93%
1st half
Spread
ILL -10.0
ILL -20.0
Total
70.3
62 points
Projected score
ORE 30.1 · ILL 40.2
ORE 21 · ILL 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -19.5
2 → ORE
CloseILL -17.5
2 pts toward ORE
Total
Open146.5
▲ 1
Close147.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ORE +1200 · ILL -2400
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -19.5 · closed ILL -17.5 · moved 2 toward OREmodel ILL -17
model ILL -17
Opened 146.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| ILL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ORE 0–1 ILLILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ORE 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | ILL 109 @ ORE 77 | ORE -4.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Oregon
29 games played
Straight up
11-18
38% wins
Against the spread
11-18
38% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-16
45% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs HAW | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs RICE | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs SDST | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs ORST | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs AUB | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs SDSU | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs CREI | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 2 | vs USC | L 77-82 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ UCLA | L 63-74 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCD | W 104-62 | -13.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs PORT | W 94-69 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs GONZ | L 82-91 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | vs OMA | W 80-57 | -21.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 2 | @ MD | W 64-54 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 5 | @ RUTG | L 85-88 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 8 | vs OSU | L 62-72 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | @ NEB | L 55-90 | +10.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs MICH | L 71-81 | +18.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs MSU | L 52-68 | +10.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 25 | @ WASH | L 57-72 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 28 | vsUCLA | L 57-73 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 1 | vs IOWA | L 66-84 | +9.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @ PUR | L 64-68 | +19.5 | W +15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 9 | @ IU | L 74-92 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 14 | vs PSU | W 83-72 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 17 | vs MINN | L 44-61 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 136.5 | U 105 |
| Feb 21 | @USC | W 71-70 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 25 | vs WIS | W 85-71 | +5.5 | W +19.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | @ NU | L 62-63 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
−6.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
−19.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−7.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
−2.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−2.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+28.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+5.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+3.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
+1.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
+8.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
−7.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−11.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−24.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
+8.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−5.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−7.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−11.5
1
vsIOWA
IOWAL 66-84
−8.5
7
@PUR
PURL 64-68
+15.5
9
@IU
IUL 74-92
−7.5
14
vsPSU
PSUW 83-72
+4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNL 44-61
−20.5
21
@USC
USCW 71-70
+6.5
25
vsWIS
WISW 85-71
+19.5
28
@NU
NUL 62-63
+2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
+1.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
+35.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−8.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
+4.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−9.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+19.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+8.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+17.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
−14.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
−28.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
+33.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−18.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−1.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
−5.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−19.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−14.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−6.5
1
vsIOWA
IOWAL 66-84
+16.5
7
@PUR
PURL 64-68
−12.5
9
@IU
IUL 74-92
+22.5
14
vsPSU
PSUW 83-72
+9.5
17
vsMINN
MINNL 44-61
−31.5
21
@USC
USCW 71-70
−8.5
25
vsWIS
WISW 85-71
+3.5
28
@NU
NUL 62-63
−16.5
over 13under 16avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
29 games played
Straight up
22-7
76% wins
Against the spread
17-12
59% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-17
41% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vsMD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vsWASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vsWIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vsIU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 27 | vsMICH | L 70-84 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−12.5
covered 17didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−5.5
over 12under 17avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oregon
11-18 overall · 4-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Northwestern62–63
- Wvs Wisconsin85–71
- W@ USC71–70
- Lvs Minnesota44–61
- Wvs Penn State83–72
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
22-7 overall · 13-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan70–84
- L@ UCLA94–95
- W@ USC101–65
- Wvs Indiana71–51
- Lvs Wisconsin90–92
4 days since their last game.