Finneran Pavilion · at Villanova · Conference game
Closing line
VILL -11.5✓ VILL covered by 1.5
VILL -11.5✓ VILL covered by 1.5Closing total153.5Over by 15.5
 XAV | This season | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| 14-16 | Record | 23-7 |
| 15-15 | ATS | 18-12 |
| 21-9 | O/U | 17-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: XAV 72–82 VILL · ✓ VILL (81%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 32 | 46 | 78 |
| VILL | 44 | 47 | 91 |
1st half: XAV 32, VILL 44 (VILL by 12). The model had VILL by 5.8 and a total of 72.2 (actual 76).
Team stats
| XAV | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-66 41% | Field goals | 35-62 56% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 13-31 42% |
| 14-14 100% | Free throws | 8-9 89% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 39 8 off |
| 18 | Assists | 24 |
| 7 | Steals | 2 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovan Milicevic F | 35 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 5-15 | 3-7 |
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 34 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 6-13 | 1-6 |
| Filip Borovicanin F | 34 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-2 |
| Isaiah Walker G | 33 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
| All Wright G | 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddie Anderson G | 29 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3-13 | 1-4 |
| Pape N'Diaye F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Anthony Robinson F | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tre Carroll, Mier Panoam, Ian Sabourin, Michael Wolf, Henry Thole, Luke Naser, Gabriel Pozzato, Kason Westphal
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Palmer G | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Acaden Lewis G | 34 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Devin Askew G | 33 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 6-14 | 5-11 |
| Duke Brennan F | 32 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 9-12 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 32 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bryce Lindsay G | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Chris Jeffrey G | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Braden Pierce C | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Wade Chiddick, Zion Stanford, Matt Hodge, Tafara Gapare, Malcolm Flaggs, Nico Onyekwere
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVILL -11.5
ModelVILL -9.9
Model edgeXAV +1.6
L VILL covered
Total
Market153.5
Model154.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
W Over
Projected score
XAV 72.2 · VILL 82.1
XAV 78 · VILL 91
Win probability
VILL 81%
1st half
Spread
VILL -5.8
VILL -12.0
Total
72.2
76 points
Projected score
XAV 33.2 · VILL 39
XAV 32 · VILL 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVILL -11.5
no move
CloseVILL -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
XAV +575 · VILL -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VILL -11.5 · unchangedmodel VILL -10
model VILL -10
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| VILL | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
XAV 3–6 VILLVILL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · VILL has won the last 2 meetings · XAV 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2025-26 | VILL 92 @ XAV 89 | XAV +4.5 | XAV W |
| Feb 9, 2024-25 | XAV 68 @ VILL 80 | VILL -2.5 | VILL W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | VILL 63 @ XAV 69 | XAV -2.5 | XAV W |
| Feb 7, 2023-24 | VILL 53 @ XAV 56 | XAV -3.5 | VILL W |
| Jan 3, 2023-24 | XAV 65 @ VILL 66 | VILL -8.5 | XAV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Xavier
30 games played
Straight up
14-16
47% wins
Against the spread
15-15
50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
21-9
70% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs MOST | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vs CREI | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @ GTWN | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 31 | vs CONN | L 67-90 | +11.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | @ DEP | L 77-86 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ MARQ | L 65-66 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs PROV | W 97-84 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 14 | vs BTLR | W 89-75 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 21 | @CREI | L 93-94 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 24 | vs SJU | L 83-88 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 28 | @ HALL | L 68-86 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsDEP | W 68-66 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 3 | @CONN | L 60-92 | +16.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 9 | @SJU | L 82-87 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | vsMARQ | W 96-88 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 17 | vsVILL | L 89-92 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 21 | @BTLR | L 75-80 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 25 | @PROV | L 84-94 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 28 | vsGTWN | W 91-84 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 3 | vsHALL | L 68-77 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−0.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
−43.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
−11.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
−6.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
+4.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+14.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+15.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+7.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+3.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
−12.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−2.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
−15.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+11.5
14
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-88
+6.5
17
vsVILL
VILLL 89-92
+1.5
21
@BTLR
BTLRL 75-80
−0.5
25
@PROV
PROVL 84-94
−4.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 91-84
+2.5
3
vsHALL
HALLL 68-77
−7.5
covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−19.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
+3.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
+12.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
+13.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
−26.5
10
vsPROV
PROVW 97-84
+15.5
14
vsBTLR
BTLRW 89-75
+2.5
21
@CREI
CREIL 93-94
+31.5
24
vsSJU
SJUL 83-88
+11.5
28
@HALL
HALLL 68-86
+8.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 68-66
−16.5
3
@CONN
CONNL 60-92
+4.5
9
@SJU
SJUL 82-87
+9.5
14
vsMARQ
MARQW 96-88
+26.5
17
vsVILL
VILLL 89-92
+28.5
21
@BTLR
BTLRL 75-80
−4.5
25
@PROV
PROVL 84-94
+7.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 91-84
+19.5
3
vsHALL
HALLL 68-77
+0.5
over 21under 9avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Villanova
30 games played
Straight up
23-7
77% wins
Against the spread
18-12
60% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vsODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vs PENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs PITT | W 79-61 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 19 | vs WIS | W 76-66 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 23 | @HALL | W 64-56 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 31 | vsDEP | W 71-66 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @BTLR | W 85-67 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsCREI | L 72-76 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MARQ | W 76-73 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @PROV | W 88-82 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 17 | vsSJU | L 79-86 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | vsGTWN | W 66-51 | -8.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 24 | @CONN | L 67-75 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 30 | vsPROV | W 87-73 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 4 | vsHALL | W 72-60 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 134.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 7 | @GTWN | W 80-73 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 10 | vsMARQ | W 77-74 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 14 | @CREI | W 80-69 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 17 | @XAV | W 92-89 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 21 | vsCONN | L 63-73 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsBTLR | W 82-73 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 28 | @SJU | L 57-89 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 4 | @DEP | W 76-57 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 135.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+7.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
+13.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
+9.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−7.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+20.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
−8.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
−0.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+3.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
−4.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
+6.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+3.5
30
vsPROV
PROVW 87-73
+5.5
4
vsHALL
HALLW 72-60
+6.5
7
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-73
+4.5
10
vsMARQ
MARQW 77-74
−6.5
14
@CREI
CREIW 80-69
+9.5
17
@XAV
XAVW 92-89
−1.5
21
vsCONN
CONNL 63-73
−6.5
25
vsBTLR
BTLRW 82-73
−1.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 57-89
−24.5
4
@DEP
DEPW 76-57
+17.5
covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+1.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
−10.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
−15.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−2.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+2.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
+5.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
+2.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+13.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
+17.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
−25.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+4.5
30
vsPROV
PROVW 87-73
+2.5
4
vsHALL
HALLW 72-60
−2.5
7
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-73
+12.5
10
vsMARQ
MARQW 77-74
+6.5
14
@CREI
CREIW 80-69
+3.5
17
@XAV
XAVW 92-89
+28.5
21
vsCONN
CONNL 63-73
−5.5
25
vsBTLR
BTLRW 82-73
+7.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 57-89
−1.5
4
@DEP
DEPW 76-57
−2.5
over 17under 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Xavier
14-16 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Seton Hall68–77
- Wvs Georgetown91–84
- L@ Providence84–94
- L@ Butler75–80
- Lvs Villanova89–92
4 days since their last game.
Villanova
23-7 overall · 14-5 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ DePaul76–57
- L@ St John's57–89
- Wvs Butler82–73
- Lvs UConn63–73
- W@ Xavier92–89
3 days since their last game.