Watsco Center · at Miami · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5Closing total156.5Under by 15.5
 UNC | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19-4 | Record | 18-5 |
| 13-10 | ATS | 11-12 |
| 12-11 | O/U | 16-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 79–78 MIA · ✗ UNC (52%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 40 | 26 | 66 |
| MIA | 43 | 32 | 75 |
1st half: UNC 40, MIA 43 (MIA by 3). The model had UNC by 0.5 and a total of 73.1 (actual 83).
Team stats
| UNC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-63 40% | Field goals | 29-62 47% |
| 8-27 30% | 3-pointers | 3-13 23% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 14-23 61% |
| 35 9 off | Rebounds | 41 12 off |
| 16 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Veesaar C | 33 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 5-12 | 1-4 |
| Seth Trimble G | 27 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 26 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 26 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Derek Dixon G | 20 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Kyan Evans G | 19 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Jaydon Young G | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Zayden High F | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Denis, Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Elijah Davis, James Brown
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 36 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 6-16 | 0-4 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 36 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-14 | 0-1 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 35 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 7-8 | 0-0 |
| Malik Reneau F | 35 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-1 |
| Dante Allen G | 33 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, Tru Washington, Marcus Allen
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -1.5
ModelUNC -0.7
Model edgeUNC +2.2
L MIA covered
Total
Market156.5
Model156.4
Model edgeUnder 0.1
W Under
Projected score
UNC 78.5 · MIA 77.8
UNC 66 · MIA 75
Win probability
UNC 52%
1st half
Spread
UNC -0.5
MIA -3.0
Total
73.1
83 points
Projected score
UNC 36.8 · MIA 36.3
UNC 40 · MIA 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -1.5
no move
CloseMIA -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
▼ 2
Close156.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
UNC -108 · MIA -112
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -1.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -0.5
model UNC -0.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 downmodel 156.5 matches the line
model 156.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| MIA | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UNC 3–2 MIAUNC leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UNC has won the last 3 meetings · UNC 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | MIA 73 @ UNC 92 | UNC -17.5 | UNC W |
| Feb 26, 2023-24 | MIA 71 @ UNC 75 | UNC -14.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | UNC 75 @ MIA 72 | MIA +4.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 13, 2022-23 | MIA 80 @ UNC 72 | UNC -5.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 18, 2021-22 | UNC 57 @ MIA 85 | MIA +2.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
23 games played
Straight up
19-4
83% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @ GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vs DUKE | W 71-68 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
+9.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
−13.5
over 12under 11avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
23 games played
Straight up
18-5
78% wins
Against the spread
11-12
48% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-7
70% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vsGTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vsGT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vsFSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vsSTAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vsCAL | L 85-86 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 7 | @ BC | W 74-68 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
−12.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
−2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 12avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
31
vsCAL
CALL 85-86
+22.5
7
@BC
BCW 74-68
+0.5
over 16under 7avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
19-4 overall · 7-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Duke71–68
- Wvs Syracuse87–77
- W@ Georgia Tech91–75
- W@ Virginia85–80
- Wvs Notre Dame91–69
3 days since their last game.
Miami
18-5 overall · 7-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Boston College74–68
- Lvs California85–86
- Wvs Stanford79–70
- W@ Syracuse85–76
- Lvs Florida St63–65
3 days since their last game.