When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
Cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 24 games
2023 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 17 |
KC -7.5 | 46 | 10303342 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
17–25 |
2023 · Week 17 |
IND -3.5 | 42.5 | 10172743 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 17 |
LAR -6 | 43.5 | 7243651 | Q4 | NYG Q2 Late cover flip |
26–25 |
2023 · Week 16 |
NYJ -3 | 36 | 17344158 | Q3 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip |
28–30 |
2023 · Week 16 |
GB -3.5 | 39.5 | 10333963 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
33–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CIN -3 | 41.5 | 1010204851 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–27 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIN -3 | 40.5 | 0003 | U | Push Late cover flip |
3–0 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAR -3.5 | 39.5 | 17233355 | Q4 | LAR Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
19–36 |
2023 · Week 13 |
IND -1 | 42 | 1730415059 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip |
31–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BAL -3 | 49 | 3131630 | U | BAL Q2 Late cover flip |
20–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLE -2.5 | 34 | 7101723 | U | CLE Q1 Late cover flip |
10–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 39.5 | 17274576 | Q3 | TB Q1 Late cover flip |
37–39 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIA -7.5 | 46.5 | 14243448 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
17–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUF -10 | 43 | 3273442 | U | TB Q4 Late cover flip |
18–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SEA -9.5 | 43.5 | 10242730 | U | SEA Q4 Late cover flip |
10–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 49.5 | 14172037 | U | DAL Q4 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
KC -9.5 | 48.5 | 3131627 | U | KC Q2 Late cover flip |
8–19 |
LAR
SF
CIN
KC
LV
IND
NYG
WSH
NYJ
GB
CAR
CHI
CLE
HOU
TEN
MIN
BAL
LAC
PIT
TB
SEA
NE
MIA
BUF
ARI
DAL
DENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 25 | 100% 25 |
| 1–3 | 13 | 100% 13 |
| 4–7 | 27 | 93% 25 |
| 8–10 | 26 | 38% 10 |
| 11–14 | 29 | 52% 15 |
| 15–17 | 30 | 23% 7 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 9% 3 |
| 22+ | 31 | 6% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.