Jackson State Tigers at Memphis Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 12:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Memphis

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jackson St and Memphis
JKST	This season	MEM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 89–68 · win probability MEM 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

JKST 1, MEM 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MEMBig

MEM offense vs JKST defense

Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 325th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

JKST has played the 239th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: JKST 45.7 and allows 53.0; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7

MEMBig

JKST offense vs MEM defense

Offense 229th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings

JKSTBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: JKST 76%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: JKST 2, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MEMBig

Three-pointers

JKST hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 43.3% and 33.7% of their shots

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: JKST 29.7%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: JKST 62.8%, MEM 64.3%

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: JKST 19.4%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: JKST 16.5%, MEM 18.6%

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 0-0 at home, JKST 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: JKST 37.4, MEM 34.7. Allowed: JKST 41.9, MEM 42.4

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: JKST plays 71.6 a game (50th fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MEM -21.1	—
Total	—	156.5	—
Projected score	—	JKST 67.7 · MEM 88.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MEM -12.4	—
1H total	73.1	—
1H projected score	JKST 30.3 · MEM 42.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLWL	14-19	42%	6-13	—
MEM LLWLL	14-18	44%	10-6	—

Venue/role: JKST away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST UOOUU	16-17	48%	12-21
MEM OUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MEM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jackson St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ TEX	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ TLSA	L52–72LU

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BAY	W78–71WU
Dec 11	vs GCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JKST 0–1 MEMMEM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · JKST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	JKST 77 @ MEM 94	MEM -21.5	JKST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

33 games played

Straight up

12-21

36% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2136%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W L W W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O O U O U O U U U O O U U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsALCN	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@ALST	W 75-64	+7.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 12	@AAMU	L 91-100	+6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 17	vsPV	W 82-78	-1.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 19	vsTXSO	W 94-89	-2.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	@BCU	L 48-85	+8.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 133
Jan 26	@FAMU	W 66-65	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsGRAM	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 135
Feb 2	vsSOU	L 91-96	+5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	@MVSU	W 97-81	-8.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 178
Feb 9	@UAPB	L 63-84	+7.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 147
Feb 14	vsFAMU	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	vsBCU	W 91-86	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 21	@ALCN	L 65-83	-1.5	L −19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@PV	L 76-85	+3.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 161
Feb 28	@TXSO	L 57-82	+6.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsUAPB	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsMVSU	W 85-77	-11.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 162
Mar 10	vsGRAM	W 68-65	+7.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsFAMU	L 60-70	+6.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

ALCN

W 89-86

−2.5

ALST

W 75-64

+18.5

AAMU

L 91-100

−2.5

W 82-78

+2.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+2.5

BCU

L 48-85

−28.5

FAMU

W 66-65

+8.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−0.5

SOU

L 91-96

+0.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+7.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−13.5

FAMU

W 80-60

+22.5

BCU

W 91-86

+9.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−19.5

L 76-85

−5.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−18.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+4.5

MVSU

W 85-77

−3.5

GRAM

W 68-65

+10.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

ALCN

W 89-86

+29.5

ALST

W 75-64

−14.5

AAMU

L 91-100

+50.5

W 82-78

−0.5

TXSO

W 94-89

+29.5

BCU

L 48-85

−23.5

FAMU

W 66-65

−19.5

GRAM

L 66-69

−13.5

SOU

L 91-96

+34.5

MVSU

W 97-81

+34.5

UAPB

L 63-84

−8.5

FAMU

W 80-60

−4.5

BCU

W 91-86

+26.5

ALCN

L 65-83

−1.5

L 76-85

−0.5

TXSO

L 57-82

−13.5

UAPB

W 81-78

+5.5

MVSU

W 85-77

+17.5

GRAM

W 68-65

−6.5

FAMU

L 60-70

−11.5

over 16under 17avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Memphis

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W W W W W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O O U U U O U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsBAY	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 13	@LOU	L 73-99	+16.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsVAN	L 70-77	+9.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 20	@MSST	L 66-71	+3.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 22	vsALST	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 31	vsUNT	W 57-48	-9.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 3	@RICE	W 76-70	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 11	@FAU	L 78-89	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsTEM	W 55-53	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 108
Jan 18	vsUTSA	W 95-69	-20.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@TLSA	L 66-83	+6.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WICH	L 59-74	+3.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsFAU	W 92-65	-3.5	W +23.5	152.5	O 157
Feb 1	vsTULN	L 76-78	-8.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 5	@UAB	W 90-80	+1.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 170
Feb 8	vsCLT	W 77-54	-10.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UNT	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 14	@USU	L 75-99	+13.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 19	@USF	L 66-87	+9.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 22	vsUAB	L 67-78	-5.5	L −16.5	152.5	U 145
Feb 26	vsWICH	L 82-88	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@ECU	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsUSF	L 89-96	+7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	@TULN	W 96-95	-2.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsTULN	L 69-81	-4.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

BAY

W 78-71

+10.5

LOU

L 73-99

−9.5

VAN

L 70-77

+2.5

MSST

L 66-71

−1.5

ALST

W 88-67

+0.5

UNT

W 57-48

−0.5

RICE

W 76-70

−1.5

FAU

L 78-89

−9.5

TEM

W 55-53

−5.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+5.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−10.5

WICH

L 59-74

−11.5

FAU

W 92-65

+23.5

TULN

L 76-78

−10.5

UAB

W 90-80

+11.5

CLT

W 77-54

+12.5

UNT

L 69-76

−9.5

USU

L 75-99

−10.5

USF

L 66-87

−11.5

UAB

L 67-78

−16.5

WICH

L 82-88

−7.5

ECU

L 68-84

−20.5

USF

L 89-96

+0.5

TULN

W 96-95

−1.5

TULN

L 69-81

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

BAY

W 78-71

−9.5

LOU

L 73-99

+9.5

VAN

L 70-77

−12.5

MSST

L 66-71

−16.5

ALST

W 88-67

+3.5

UNT

W 57-48

−32.5

RICE

W 76-70

+1.5

FAU

L 78-89

+14.5

TEM

W 55-53

−35.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+16.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−4.5

WICH

L 59-74

−12.5

FAU

W 92-65

+4.5

TULN

L 76-78

+2.5

UAB

W 90-80

+14.5

CLT

W 77-54

−13.5

UNT

L 69-76

+6.5

USU

L 75-99

+18.5

USF

L 66-87

−10.5

UAB

L 67-78

−7.5

WICH

L 82-88

+20.5

ECU

L 68-84

−0.5

USF

L 89-96

+21.5

TULN

W 96-95

+36.5

TULN

L 69-81

−1.5

over 16under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Memphis has the better starters

Position by position: Jackson St 1, Memphis 3, even 1

Jackson StBetterMemphis

G D. Ruffin23.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 98

JKSTSmall

G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80

G D. McMillian11.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 37

MEMBig

G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84

G M. Williams5.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83

G T. Hoover5.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 23

MEMBig

F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

G D. Williams2.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5

MEMBig

F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68

Jackson StBetterMemphis

JKST offense229th of 366 · -7.0

MEMSmall

MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5

JKST defense325th of 366 · -8.4

MEMBig

MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6

Backcourt-2.6 · 5 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Bench-5.7 · 5 players

MEMBig

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestJKST betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jackson St

Guards

D. Ruffin34 minD. McMillian30 minM. Williams20 minT. Hoover20 minD. Williams17 minC. Brunt11 min · TR

Forwards

K. Butler10 minD. Kolev8 minN. WilliamsNewT. LawsonNew

Centers

E. Wilson11 minJ. Williams8 min · TR

Memphis

Guards

L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew

Forwards

T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

JKST70.2 #281

MEM75.2 #158

Points per possession

JKST0.98 #341

MEM1.04 #264

Pace (possessions)

JKST71.6 #50

MEM71.9 #37

Shooting

Effective FG%

JKST45.7 #354

MEM48.7 #298

3-point %

JKST31.4 #311

MEM31.6 #303

3-point attempt rate

JKST43.3 #105

MEM33.7 #305

Free throw rate

JKST37.4 #117

MEM34.7 #190

Possessions

Turnover rate

JKST19.4 #337

MEM18.9 #316

Offensive rebound rate

JKST29.7 #215

MEM35.3 #41

Assists per game

JKST10.4 #352

MEM13.3 #193

Defense

Points allowed

JKST83.8 #354

MEM76.6 #234

Points allowed per possession

JKST1.17 #344

MEM1.07 #124

Opponent effective FG%

JKST53.0 #267

MEM48.7 #55

Opponent 3-point %

JKST34.8 #236

MEM30.6 #22

Turnovers forced

JKST16.5 #189

MEM18.6 #69

Defensive rebound rate

JKST62.8 #359

MEM64.3 #350

Steals per game

JKST6.3 #205

MEM8.4 #19

Blocks per game

JKST3.0 #226

MEM4.3 #49

JKST		MEM
Scoring
70.2 #281	Points per game	75.2 #158
0.98 #341	Points per possession	1.04 #264
71.6 #50	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #37
Shooting
45.7 #354	Effective FG%	48.7 #298
31.4 #311	3-point %	31.6 #303
43.3 #105	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #305
37.4 #117	Free throw rate	34.7 #190
Possessions
19.4 #337	Turnover rate	18.9 #316
29.7 #215	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #41
10.4 #352	Assists per game	13.3 #193
Defense
83.8 #354	Points allowed	76.6 #234
1.17 #344	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #124
53.0 #267	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #55
34.8 #236	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #22
16.5 #189	Turnovers forced	18.6 #69
62.8 #359	Defensive rebound rate	64.3 #350
6.3 #205	Steals per game	8.4 #19
3.0 #226	Blocks per game	4.3 #49

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jackson St

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Florida A&M60–70
Wvs Grambling68–65
Wvs Miss Valley St85–77
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff81–78
L@ Texas Southern57–82

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulane69–81
W@ Tulane96–95
Lvs South Florida89–96
L@ East Carolina68–84
Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Jackson St @ Memphis

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Memphis

Memphis has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jackson St

Memphis