Air Force Falcons at UTSA Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 AM ETUTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA

#192UTSAUTSA

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Air Force and UTSA
AF	This season	UTSA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTSA 74–71 · win probability UTSA 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTSA has more of the edges

AF 1, UTSA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AFBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AF 100%, UTSA 15%. Transfers in: AF 0, UTSA 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: AF plays 67.4 a game (259th fastest), UTSA 69.6 (142nd). Faster games mean more points

UTSASmall

AF offense vs UTSA defense

Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings

UTSASmall

Home court

UTSA at home. This season: UTSA 0-0 at home, AF 0-0 away

UTSASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AF 21.9%, UTSA 17.4%. Forced: AF 15.1%, UTSA 14.7%

Even

Three-pointers

AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%; UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 41.8% and 41.3% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: AF 35.1, UTSA 29.5. Allowed: AF 36.6, UTSA 33.3

Context

Schedule so far

AF has played the 119th-hardest schedule, UTSA the 104th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AF 21.4%, UTSA 30.2%. Defensive: AF 68.7%, UTSA 61.3%

Even

UTSA offense vs AF defense

Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: AF 48.9 and allows 56.4; UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTSA -3.6	—
Total	—	144.9	—
Projected score	—	AF 70.7 · UTSA 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTSA -2.0	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	AF 32.9 · UTSA 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AF WWLWL	10-22	31%	5-7	—
UTSA WLWLW	10-18	36%	5-7	—

Venue/role: AF away; UTSA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AF OUOUU	18-14	56%	3-29
UTSA UOOUU	13-15	46%	3-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AF	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
UTSA	1-9 10%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs ARMY	W76–58WO
Nov 28	vs BRWN	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs DEN	W66–65LO

UTSA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs ARMY	L75–78LU
Nov 29	@ SIUE	L60–77LU
Dec 5	@ USA	L58–82LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Air Force

32 games played

Straight up

3-29

9% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-299%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

25 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L W L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U O U U O O U U O U O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 19	vsALST	W 66-64	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsSIUE	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsIUIN	W 98-85	-3.5	W +9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsUNCO	L 53-71	+4.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 124
Nov 29	vsSDAK	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsPAC	L 65-80	+5.5	L −9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 7	@NAVY	L 56-61	+9.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 17	@SDSU	L 58-81	+24.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 30	vsWYO	L 56-68	+14.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 124
Jan 3	@UNLV	L 39-67	+14.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	vsUSU	L 62-99	+22.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUNM	L 49-91	+16.5	L −25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	@SJSU	L 62-70	+5.5	L −2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsNEV	L 66-81	+14.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	@CSU	L 52-81	+19.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 24	@BOIS	L 54-96	+23.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsFRES	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	@GCU	L 57-81	+26.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 138
Feb 7	vsSDSU	L 54-88	+22.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 10	vsCSU	L 74-91	+16.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	@FRES	L 63-93	+14.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@UNM	L 61-98	+28.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	vsUNLV	L 66-91	+16.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsSJSU	L 80-86	+6.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	@WYO	L 62-66	+20.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsGCU	L 60-86	+19.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 146
Mar 7	@NEV	L 59-74	+24.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsNEV	L 45-80	+19.5	L −15.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

ALST

W 66-64

−0.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+16.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+9.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−13.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−13.5

PAC

L 65-80

−9.5

NAVY

L 56-61

+4.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+1.5

WYO

L 56-68

+2.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−13.5

USU

L 62-99

−14.5

UNM

L 49-91

−25.5

SJSU

L 62-70

−2.5

NEV

L 66-81

−0.5

CSU

L 52-81

−9.5

BOIS

L 54-96

−18.5

FRES

L 62-79

−7.5

GCU

L 57-81

+2.5

SDSU

L 54-88

−11.5

CSU

L 74-91

−0.5

FRES

L 63-93

−15.5

UNM

L 61-98

−8.5

UNLV

L 66-91

−8.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+0.5

WYO

L 62-66

+16.5

GCU

L 60-86

−6.5

NEV

L 59-74

+9.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

ALST

W 66-64

−8.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+9.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+7.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−22.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−4.5

PAC

L 65-80

+10.5

NAVY

L 56-61

−16.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+3.5

WYO

L 56-68

−22.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−36.5

USU

L 62-99

+21.5

UNM

L 49-91

+1.5

SJSU

L 62-70

+3.5

NEV

L 66-81

+12.5

CSU

L 52-81

−0.5

BOIS

L 54-96

+12.5

FRES

L 62-79

−0.5

GCU

L 57-81

+0.5

SDSU

L 54-88

+2.5

CSU

L 74-91

+27.5

FRES

L 63-93

+13.5

UNM

L 61-98

+10.5

UNLV

L 66-91

+3.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+20.5

WYO

L 62-66

−17.5

GCU

L 60-86

+2.5

NEV

L 59-74

−11.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

over 18under 14avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTSA

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1836%

L L W L W L L L L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

U O O U U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	@DEN	W 84-79	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsACU	L 50-61	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsGASO	W 77-64	+3.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 30	vsUSA	L 58-82	+1.5	L −22.5	141.5	U 140
Dec 7	@ALA	L 55-97	+33.5	L −8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	@COLO	L 64-88	+22.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 152
Dec 17	@USC	L 70-97	+25.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 167
Dec 22	vsSEA	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 31	@FAU	L 70-110	+16.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 180
Jan 3	@TEM	L 57-76	+10.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 7	vsCLT	L 58-74	+6.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTULN	L 52-85	+7.5	L −25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsRICE	L 73-89	+6.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 162
Jan 18	@MEM	L 69-95	+20.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@UNT	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 24	vsTEM	L 64-70	+10.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 28	vsUAB	L 73-83	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 156
Feb 4	@USF	L 88-109	+23.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 197
Feb 7	vsUNT	L 58-81	+10.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 11	@ECU	L 72-88	+10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 15	@CLT	W 88-79	+13.5	W +22.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 18	vsFAU	L 52-60	+11.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 112
Feb 22	@TLSA	L 74-100	+21.5	L −4.5	159.5	O 174
Feb 25	vsECU	L 81-82	+4.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsWICH	L 67-84	+15.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 8	@RICE	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

DEN

W 84-79

+9.5

ACU

L 50-61

−8.5

GASO

W 77-64

+16.5

USA

L 58-82

−22.5

ALA

L 55-97

−8.5

COLO

L 64-88

−1.5

USC

L 70-97

−1.5

SEA

L 68-71

+7.5

FAU

L 70-110

−23.5

TEM

L 57-76

−8.5

CLT

L 58-74

−9.5

TULN

L 52-85

−25.5

RICE

L 73-89

−9.5

MEM

L 69-95

−5.5

UNT

L 62-81

−3.5

TEM

L 64-70

+4.5

UAB

L 73-83

+2.5

USF

L 88-109

+2.5

UNT

L 58-81

−12.5

ECU

L 72-88

−5.5

CLT

W 88-79

+22.5

FAU

L 52-60

+3.5

TLSA

L 74-100

−4.5

ECU

L 81-82

+3.5

WICH

L 67-84

−1.5

RICE

L 71-80

+2.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

DEN

W 84-79

+14.5

ACU

L 50-61

−33.5

GASO

W 77-64

−19.5

USA

L 58-82

−1.5

ALA

L 55-97

−19.5

COLO

L 64-88

−2.5

USC

L 70-97

+9.5

SEA

L 68-71

−9.5

FAU

L 70-110

+21.5

TEM

L 57-76

−16.5

CLT

L 58-74

−13.5

TULN

L 52-85

−10.5

RICE

L 73-89

+17.5

MEM

L 69-95

+16.5

UNT

L 62-81

+4.5

TEM

L 64-70

−11.5

UAB

L 73-83

+0.5

USF

L 88-109

+32.5

UNT

L 58-81

−2.5

ECU

L 72-88

+9.5

CLT

W 88-79

+18.5

FAU

L 52-60

−45.5

TLSA

L 74-100

+14.5

ECU

L 81-82

+9.5

WICH

L 67-84

−0.5

RICE

L 71-80

−0.5

over 13under 15avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Air Force 2, UTSA 2, even 1

Air ForceBetterUTSA

G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77

AFBig

G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16

G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18

UTSASmall

G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44

F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

UTSABig

G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72

F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39

Even

G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31

F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82

AFSmall

G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

Air ForceBetterUTSA

AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9

Even

UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2

AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3

Even

UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

AFBig

Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-7.9 · 5 players

UTSABig

Bench-3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAF betterUTSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Air Force

Guards

K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew

Forwards

L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min

Centers

W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew

UTSA

Guards

D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR

Forwards

A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AF61.5 #362

UTSA67.3 #329

Points per possession

AF0.91 #363

UTSA0.96 #348

Pace (possessions)

AF67.4 #259

UTSA69.6 #142

Shooting

Effective FG%

AF48.9 #292

UTSA44.8 #360

3-point %

AF30.6 #332

UTSA29.2 #351

3-point attempt rate

AF41.8 #139

UTSA41.3 #143

Free throw rate

AF35.1 #174

UTSA29.5 #320

Possessions

Turnover rate

AF21.9 #362

UTSA17.4 #231

Offensive rebound rate

AF21.4 #360

UTSA30.2 #191

Assists per game

AF12.2 #273

UTSA10.1 #357

Defense

Points allowed

AF79.9 #316

UTSA82.9 #345

Points allowed per possession

AF1.19 #352

UTSA1.20 #356

Opponent effective FG%

AF56.4 #350

UTSA53.3 #277

Opponent 3-point %

AF37.6 #352

UTSA35.1 #251

Turnovers forced

AF15.1 #280

UTSA14.7 #309

Defensive rebound rate

AF68.7 #215

UTSA61.3 #363

Steals per game

AF5.6 #281

UTSA6.3 #203

Blocks per game

AF2.4 #316

UTSA4.3 #52

AF		UTSA
Scoring
61.5 #362	Points per game	67.3 #329
0.91 #363	Points per possession	0.96 #348
67.4 #259	Pace (possessions)	69.6 #142
Shooting
48.9 #292	Effective FG%	44.8 #360
30.6 #332	3-point %	29.2 #351
41.8 #139	3-point attempt rate	41.3 #143
35.1 #174	Free throw rate	29.5 #320
Possessions
21.9 #362	Turnover rate	17.4 #231
21.4 #360	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #191
12.2 #273	Assists per game	10.1 #357
Defense
79.9 #316	Points allowed	82.9 #345
1.19 #352	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #356
56.4 #350	Opponent effective FG%	53.3 #277
37.6 #352	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #251
15.1 #280	Turnovers forced	14.7 #309
68.7 #215	Defensive rebound rate	61.3 #363
5.6 #281	Steals per game	6.3 #203
2.4 #316	Blocks per game	4.3 #52

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nevada45–80
L@ Nevada59–74
Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
L@ Wyoming62–66
Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Rice71–80
Lvs Wichita St67–84
Lvs East Carolina81–82
L@ Tulsa74–100
Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

Air Force @ UTSA

What could decide it: UTSA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Air Force

UTSA

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Air Force

UTSA