UD Arena · at Dayton · NIT
Closing line
DAY -7.5✓ ILST covered by 13.5
DAY -7.5✓ ILST covered by 13.5Closing total140.5Under by 24.5
 ILST | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 21-12 | Record | 25-11 |
| 18-15 | ATS | 17-19 |
| 14-19 | O/U | 13-23 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILST 66–73 DAY · ✗ DAY (71%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 33 | 28 | 61 |
| DAY | 23 | 32 | 55 |
1st half: ILST 33, DAY 23 (ILST by 10). The model had DAY by 3.7 and a total of 64.9 (actual 56).
Team stats
| ILST | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-40 55% | Field goals | 19-63 30% |
| 6-16 38% | 3-pointers | 3-25 12% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 14-19 74% |
| 36 2 off | Rebounds | 35 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 9 |
| 2 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger G | 39 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-7 |
| Landon Wolf G | 33 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Chase Walker F | 27 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 25 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Mason Klabo G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ty Pence G | 28 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Lieb F | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Landon Moore G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Blake, Jack Daugherty, Isaac Ericksen, Cameron Barnes, Nick Allen
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keonte Jones G | 36 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-2 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 31 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Javon Bennett G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Derkack G | 28 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-12 | 0-2 |
| Jacob Conner F | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-5 |
| Bryce Heard G | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Damon Friery F | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Jaron McKie
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDAY -7.5
ModelDAY -6.4
Model edgeILST +1.1
W ILST covered
Total
Market140.5
Model138.6
Model edgeUnder 1.9
W Under
Projected score
ILST 66.1 · DAY 72.5
ILST 61 · DAY 55
Win probability
DAY 71%
1st half
Spread
DAY -3.7
ILST -10.0
Total
64.9
56 points
Projected score
ILST 30.6 · DAY 34.3
ILST 33 · DAY 23
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -7.5
no move
CloseDAY -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open139.5
▲ 1
Close140.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILST +270 · DAY -340
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -7.5 · unchangedmodel DAY -6.5
model DAY -6.5
Opened 139.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 1 upmodel 138.5
model 138.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| DAY | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois St
33 games played
Straight up
21-12
64% wins
Against the spread
18-15
55% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-19
42% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ OHIO | L 68-72 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 9 | vs COR | W 76-65 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs USC | L 67-87 | +15.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ LBSU | W 82-80 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 23 | vs CCU | W 94-42 | -12.5 | W +39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 27 | vs CLT | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs FUR | W 72-65 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs EKU | W 89-78 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | vs CHST | W 95-53 | -20.5 | W +21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | vs USU | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 18 | @ SIU | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | vs INST | W 85-65 | -13.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | @ DRKE | W 73-56 | -4.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 1 | vs EVAN | W 73-47 | -12.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAL | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | vs UIC | L 59-63 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 14 | @INST | L 89-94 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 17 | vs BRAD | W 88-62 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vs UNI | W 59-54 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 24 | @ BEL | L 69-80 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 28 | @ MUR | W 70-65 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 3 | vsSIU | L 50-54 | -8.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | U 104 |
| Feb 6 | vsDRKE | W 86-76 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 9 | @EVAN | L 80-88 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 137.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 12 | vsVAL | W 86-64 | -8.5 | W +13.5 | 138.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 15 | @UIC | L 56-83 | -1.5 | L −28.5 | 140.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 18 | vsMUR | W 78-61 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 158.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 21 | @BRAD | L 60-74 | +3.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 25 | @UNI | W 71-69 | +4.5 | W +6.5 | 132.5 | O 140 |
| Mar 1 | vsBEL | W 81-74 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 6 | vsUNI | L 52-74 | +1.5 | L −20.5 | 130.5 | U 126 |
| Mar 18 | vs KENT | W 79-58 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 154.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 22 | @ WAKE | W 78-75 | +8.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−4.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
−6.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
+39.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
+3.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
−1.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+21.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+3.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
+8.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
+6.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
+12.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
+13.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
−12.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−14.5
14
@INST
INSTL 89-94
−11.5
17
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-62
+20.5
21
vsUNI
UNIW 59-54
−1.5
24
@BEL
BELL 69-80
−5.5
28
@MUR
MURW 70-65
+8.5
3
vsSIU
SIUL 50-54
−12.5
6
vsDRKE
DRKEW 86-76
−0.5
9
@EVAN
EVANL 80-88
−18.5
12
vsVAL
VALW 86-64
+13.5
15
@UIC
UICL 56-83
−28.5
18
vsMUR
MURW 78-61
+14.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 60-74
−10.5
25
@UNI
UNIW 71-69
+6.5
1
vsBEL
BELW 81-74
+8.5
6
vsUNI
UNIL 52-74
−20.5
18
vsKENT
KENTW 79-58
+16.5
22
@WAKE
WAKEW 78-75
+11.5
covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−1.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
+20.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
−10.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+8.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
−8.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
+12.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+3.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+12.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
−10.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
−2.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
−16.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
−24.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
+9.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−19.5
14
@INST
INSTL 89-94
+34.5
17
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-62
+2.5
21
vsUNI
UNIW 59-54
−19.5
24
@BEL
BELL 69-80
−1.5
28
@MUR
MURW 70-65
−24.5
3
vsSIU
SIUL 50-54
−36.5
6
vsDRKE
DRKEW 86-76
+17.5
9
@EVAN
EVANL 80-88
+30.5
12
vsVAL
VALW 86-64
+11.5
15
@UIC
UICL 56-83
−1.5
18
vsMUR
MURW 78-61
−19.5
21
@BRAD
BRADL 60-74
−11.5
25
@UNI
UNIW 71-69
+7.5
1
vsBEL
BELW 81-74
+4.5
6
vsUNI
UNIL 52-74
−4.5
18
vsKENT
KENTW 79-58
−17.5
22
@WAKE
WAKEW 78-75
+0.5
over 14under 19avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
36 games played
Straight up
25-11
69% wins
Against the spread
17-19
47% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-23
36% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs FOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @ LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vs GW | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 13 | @ DUQ | W 71-65 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 16 | vsLUC | W 78-51 | -16.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @ LAS | L 64-67 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ JOES | L 74-81 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 139.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 27 | vs URI | L 76-81 | -9.5 | L −14.5 | 138.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 30 | @ SLU | L 71-102 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 3 | vs SBU | W 72-70 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 6 | @ VCU | L 73-99 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 15 | vs DAV | W 70-59 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 18 | @ GMU | W 82-67 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsDUQ | W 78-66 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 24 | vsSLU | W 77-62 | +3.5 | W +18.5 | 157.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 27 | @GW | W 68-66 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 3 | @ RICH | W 65-60 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 6 | vsVCU | L 62-68 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 13 | vsSBU | W 68-63 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 14 | vsSLU | W 70-69 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 15 | vsVCU | L 62-70 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Mar 18 | @BRAD | W 80-66 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Mar 21 | @ UNCW | W 80-61 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 138.5 | O 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
+4.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
+3.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
+10.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−12.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
−13.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
−14.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
−21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−5.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
−17.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
+5.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+17.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
+5.5
24
vsSLU
SLUW 77-62
+18.5
27
@GW
GWW 68-66
+4.5
3
@RICH
RICHW 65-60
−0.5
6
vsVCU
VCUL 62-68
−7.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 68-63
−0.5
14
vsSLU
SLUW 70-69
+5.5
15
vsVCU
VCUL 62-70
−4.5
18
@BRAD
BRADW 80-66
+11.5
21
@UNCW
UNCWW 80-61
+15.5
covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
−3.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
−16.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
−12.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−6.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
+15.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
+18.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
+21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−2.5
6
@VCU
VCUL 73-99
+24.5
15
vsDAV
DAVW 70-59
−11.5
18
@GMU
GMUW 82-67
+11.5
21
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-66
−4.5
24
vsSLU
SLUW 77-62
−18.5
27
@GW
GWW 68-66
−18.5
3
@RICH
RICHW 65-60
−19.5
6
vsVCU
VCUL 62-68
−16.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 68-63
−10.5
14
vsSLU
SLUW 70-69
−6.5
15
vsVCU
VCUL 62-70
−7.5
18
@BRAD
BRADW 80-66
+4.5
21
@UNCW
UNCWW 80-61
+2.5
over 13under 23avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois St
21-12 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Wake Forest78–75
- Wvs Kent State79–58
- Lvs Northern Iowa52–74
- Wvs Belmont81–74
- W@ Northern Iowa71–69
3 days since their last game.
Dayton
25-11 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
- W@ Bradley80–66
- Lvs VCU62–70
- Wvs Saint Louis70–69
- Wvs St Bonaventure68–63
4 days since their last game.