Bon Secours Wellness Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
UNC -2.5✓ VCU covered by 6.5
UNC -2.5✓ VCU covered by 6.5Closing total150.5Over by 9.5
 VCU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 27-7 | Record | 24-8 |
| 17-17 | ATS | 19-13 |
| 15-19 | O/U | 15-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VCU 75–79 UNC · ✗ UNC (66%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 28 | 47 | 7 | 82 |
| UNC | 39 | 36 | 3 | 78 |
1st half: VCU 28, UNC 39 (UNC by 11). The model had UNC by 2.7 and a total of 72.0 (actual 67).
Team stats
| VCU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-66 45% | Field goals | 29-70 41% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 12-20 60% |
| 39 7 off | Rebounds | 44 11 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| VCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Djokovic F | 38 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-5 |
| Brandon Jennings G | 34 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-1 |
| Nyk Lewis G | 31 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Barry Evans F | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jadrian Tracey G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. G | 40 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 13-23 | 7-10 |
| Michael Belle F | 31 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Tyrell Ward G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Christian Fermin, Obinnaya Okafor, Jordann Dumont, Keyshawn Mitchell, Ahmad Nowell, Jordan Tillery
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 43 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 42 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 9-18 | 3-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 41 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4-12 | 3-7 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 32 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-4 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 31 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| Zayden High F | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyan Evans G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, James Brown, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith, Caleb Wilson
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -2.5
ModelUNC -4.7
Model edgeUNC +2.2
L VCU covered
Total
Market150.5
Model154.1
Model edgeOver 3.6
W Over
Projected score
VCU 74.7 · UNC 79.4
VCU 82 · UNC 78
Win probability
UNC 66%
1st half
Spread
UNC -2.7
UNC -11.0
Total
72.0
67 points
Projected score
VCU 34.7 · UNC 37.4
VCU 28 · UNC 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -1.5
1 → UNC
CloseUNC -2.5
1 pt toward UNC
Total
Open155.5
▼ 5
Close150.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
VCU +130 · UNC -155
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -1.5 · closed UNC -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel UNC -4.5
model UNC -4.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 5 downmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| UNC | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VCU
34 games played
Straight up
27-7
79% wins
Against the spread
17-17
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-19
44% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WAG | W 103-74 | -25.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 7 | vs USU | L 77-80 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs SPU | W 78-61 | -20.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 17 | @ NCSU | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs COPP | W 101-58 | -32.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 26 | vs USF | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs VAN | L 74-89 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs VT | W 86-68 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 5 | vs SAM | W 83-57 | -19.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs UNM | L 78-81 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 15 | vs NIA | W 84-58 | -30.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 18 | vs AMER | W 105-83 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 22 | vs RID | W 100-79 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 145.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 31 | vs SBU | W 89-82 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ DUQ | W 93-80 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 7 | vs SLU | L 62-71 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ GMU | L 80-86 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 14 | @ URI | W 84-75 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 19 | vs JOES | W 79-72 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 24 | @ DAV | W 75-69 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 27 | vs RICH | W 77-69 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 30 | vs LUC | W 89-75 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 3 | @ FOR | W 63-59 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 6 | vs DAY | W 99-73 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 11 | @ LAS | W 77-68 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @RICH | W 78-67 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 17 | vs GW | W 89-75 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 20 | @SLU | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 28 | vsFOR | W 82-63 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Mar 3 | vsGMU | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 6 | @DAY | W 68-62 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 13 | vsDUQ | W 71-66 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 14 | vsJOES | W 77-64 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 15 | vsDAY | W 70-62 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+3.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−0.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−3.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
+5.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+10.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
+10.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
−8.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+15.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
+6.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
−11.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−4.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+2.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
−9.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
−2.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−10.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
−7.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+5.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−7.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
+0.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−4.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
−4.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−3.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 99-73
+17.5
11
@LAS
LASW 77-68
−3.5
14
@RICH
RICHW 78-67
+3.5
17
vsGW
GWW 89-75
+7.5
20
@SLU
SLUL 75-88
−5.5
28
vsFOR
FORW 82-63
+6.5
3
vsGMU
GMUW 70-65
−4.5
6
@DAY
DAYW 68-62
+7.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 71-66
−1.5
14
vsJOES
JOESW 77-64
+6.5
15
vsDAY
DAYW 70-62
+4.5
covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+43.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−6.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−8.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
−0.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+7.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
−28.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
+1.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+0.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
+1.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−1.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+33.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
+33.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
+13.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−38.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
+21.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+11.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−0.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
−4.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−9.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
+13.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−24.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 99-73
+24.5
11
@LAS
LASW 77-68
−2.5
14
@RICH
RICHW 78-67
−9.5
17
vsGW
GWW 89-75
+2.5
20
@SLU
SLUL 75-88
−1.5
28
vsFOR
FORW 82-63
+0.5
3
vsGMU
GMUW 70-65
−12.5
6
@DAY
DAYW 68-62
−16.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 71-66
−16.5
14
vsJOES
JOESW 77-64
−4.5
15
vsDAY
DAYW 70-62
−7.5
over 15under 19avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
32 games played
Straight up
24-8
75% wins
Against the spread
19-13
59% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-17
47% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vsSBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ SMU | L 83-97 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vs WAKE | W 87-84 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ STAN | L 90-95 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | @ CAL | L 78-84 | -7.5 | L −13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | vs ND | W 91-69 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ UVA | W 85-80 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | @ GT | W 91-75 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 2 | vs SYR | W 87-77 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 7 | vs DUKE | W 71-68 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ MIA | L 66-75 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 14 | vs PITT | W 79-65 | -11.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 17 | @NCSU | L 58-82 | +8.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 21 | @SYR | W 77-64 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 154.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 23 | vs LOU | W 77-74 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | vsVT | W 89-82 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 3 | vs CLEM | W 67-63 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | @DUKE | L 61-76 | +18.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 12 | vsCLEM | L 79-80 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
−12.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
−7.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
−9.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
−13.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+8.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+11.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+6.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
−1.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
+9.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−7.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+2.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−15.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
+15.5
23
vsLOU
LOUW 77-74
+6.5
28
vsVT
VTW 89-82
−0.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-63
+1.5
7
@DUKE
DUKEL 61-76
+3.5
12
vsCLEM
CLEML 79-80
+1.5
covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
3
@SMU
SMUL 83-97
+24.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEW 87-84
+16.5
14
@STAN
STANL 90-95
+37.5
17
@CAL
CALL 78-84
+10.5
21
vsND
NDW 91-69
+10.5
24
@UVA
UVAW 85-80
+12.5
31
@GT
GTW 91-75
+5.5
2
vsSYR
SYRW 87-77
+5.5
7
vsDUKE
DUKEW 71-68
−13.5
10
@MIA
MIAL 66-75
−15.5
14
vsPITT
PITTW 79-65
+1.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 58-82
−16.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 77-64
−13.5
23
vsLOU
LOUW 77-74
−11.5
28
vsVT
VTW 89-82
+21.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-63
−11.5
7
@DUKE
DUKEL 61-76
−10.5
12
vsCLEM
CLEML 79-80
+18.5
over 15under 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VCU
27-7 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Dayton70–62
- Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
- Wvs Duquesne71–66
- W@ Dayton68–62
- Wvs George Mason70–65
4 days since their last game.
North Carolina
24-8 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Clemson79–80
- L@ Duke61–76
- Wvs Clemson67–63
- Wvs Virginia Tech89–82
- Wvs Louisville77–74
A week or more of rest.